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Bayesian Optimisation (BO), refers to a suite of techniques for global optimisation of expensive black box functions, which use introspective Bayesian models of the function to efficiently find the optimum. While BO has been applied successfully in many applications, modern optimisation tasks usher in new challenges where conventional methods fail spectacularly. In this work, we present Dragonfly, an open source Python library for scalable and robust BO. Dragonfly incorporates multiple recently developed methods that allow BO to be applied in challenging real world settings; these include better methods for handling higher dimensional domains, methods for handling multi-fidelity evaluations when cheap approximations of an expensive function are available, methods for optimising over structured combinatorial spaces, such as the space of neural network architectures, and methods for handling parallel evaluations. Additionally, we develop new methodological improvements in BO for selecting the Bayesian model, selecting the acquisition function, and optimising over complex domains with different variable types and additional constraints. We compare Dragonfly to a suite of other packages and algorithms for global optimisation and demonstrate that when the above methods are integrated, they enable significant improvements in the performance of BO. The Dragonfly library is available at dragonfly.github.io.

Modeling item complementariness and user preferences from purchase data is essential for learning good representations of products and customers, which empowers the modern personalized recommender system for Walmart's e-commerce platform. The intrinsic complementary relationship among products captures the buy-also-buy patterns and provides great sources for recommendations. Product complementary patterns, though often reflected by population purchase behaviors, are not separable from customer-specific bias in purchase data. We propose a unified model with Bayesian network structure that takes account of both factors. In the meantime, we merge the contextual knowledge of both products and customers into their representations. We also use the dual product embeddings to capture the intrinsic properties of complementariness, such as asymmetry. The separating hyperplane theory sheds light on the geometric interpretation of using the additional embedding. We conduct extensive evaluations on our model before final production, and propose a novel ranking criterion based on product and customer embeddings. Our method compares favorably to existing approaches in various offline and online testings, and case studies demonstrate the advantage and usefulness of the dual product embeddings as well as the user embeddings.

Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) (Chipman et. al., 2010) is a powerful predictive model that often outperforms alternative models at out-of-sample prediction. BART is especially well-suited to settings with unstructured predictor variables and substantial sources of unmeasured variation as is typical in the social, behavioral and health sciences. This paper develops a modified version of BART that is amenable to fast posterior estimation. We present a stochastic hill climbing algorithm that matches the remarkable predictive accuracy of previous BART implementations, but is many times faster and less memory intensive. Simulation studies show that the new method is comparable in computation time and more accurate at function estimation than both random forests and gradient boosting.

Multilayer switch networks are proposed as artificial generators of high-dimensional discrete data (e.g., binary vectors, categorical data, natural language, network log files, and discrete-valued time series). Unlike deconvolution networks which generate continuous-valued data and which consist of upsampling filters and reverse pooling layers, multilayer switch networks are composed of adaptive switches which model conditional distributions of discrete random variables. An interpretable, statistical framework is introduced for training these nonlinear networks based on a maximum-likelihood objective function. To learn network parameters, stochastic gradient descent is applied to the objective. This direct optimization is stable until convergence, and does not involve back-propagation over separate encoder and decoder networks, or adversarial training of dueling networks. While training remains tractable for moderately sized networks, Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approximations of gradients are derived for deep networks which contain latent variables. The statistical framework is evaluated on synthetic data, high-dimensional binary data of handwritten digits, and web-crawled natural language data. Aspects of the model's framework such as interpretability, computational complexity, and generalization ability are discussed.

Gaussian processes (GP) are a popular Bayesian approach for the optimization of black-box functions. Despite their effectiveness in simple problems, GP-based algorithms hardly scale to complex high-dimensional functions, as their per-iteration time and space cost is at least quadratic in the number of dimensions $d$ and iterations $t$. Given a set of $A$ alternative to choose from, the overall runtime $O(t^3A)$ quickly becomes prohibitive. In this paper, we introduce BKB (budgeted kernelized bandit), a novel approximate GP algorithm for optimization under bandit feedback that achieves near-optimal regret (and hence near-optimal convergence rate) with near-constant per-iteration complexity and no assumption on the input space or covariance of the GP. Combining a kernelized linear bandit algorithm (GP-UCB) with randomized matrix sketching technique (i.e., leverage score sampling), we prove that selecting inducing points based on their posterior variance gives an accurate low-rank approximation of the GP, preserving variance estimates and confidence intervals. As a consequence, BKB does not suffer from variance starvation, an important problem faced by many previous sparse GP approximations. Moreover, we show that our procedure selects at most $\tilde{O}(d_{eff})$ points, where $d_{eff}$ is the effective dimension of the explored space, which is typically much smaller than both $d$ and $t$. This greatly reduces the dimensionality of the problem, thus leading to a $O(TAd_{eff}^2)$ runtime and $O(A d_{eff})$ space complexity.

In this paper, we investigate the design and implementation of machine learning (ML) based demodulation methods in the physical layer of visible light communication (VLC) systems. We build a flexible hardware prototype of an end-to-end VLC system, from which the received signals are collected as the real data. The dataset is available online, which contains eight types of modulated signals. Then, we propose three ML demodulators based on convolutional neural network (CNN), deep belief network (DBN), and adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), respectively. Specifically, the CNN based demodulator converts the modulated signals to images and recognizes the signals by the image classification. The proposed DBN based demodulator contains three restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs) to extract the modulation features. The AdaBoost method includes a strong classifier that is constructed by the weak classifiers with the k-nearest neighbor (KNN) algorithm. These three demodulators are trained and tested by our online open dataset. Experimental results show that the demodulation accuracy of the three data-driven demodulators drops as the transmission distance increases. A higher modulation order negatively influences the accuracy for a given transmission distance. Among the three ML methods, the AdaBoost modulator achieves the best performance.

Word meaning changes over time, depending on linguistic and extra-linguistic factors. Associating a word's correct meaning in its historical context is a critical challenge in diachronic research, and is relevant to a range of NLP tasks, including information retrieval and semantic search in historical texts. Bayesian models for semantic change have emerged as a powerful tool to address this challenge, providing explicit and interpretable representations of semantic change phenomena. However, while corpora typically come with rich metadata, existing models are limited by their inability to exploit contextual information (such as text genre) beyond the document time-stamp. This is particularly critical in the case of ancient languages, where lack of data and long diachronic span make it harder to draw a clear distinction between polysemy and semantic change, and current systems perform poorly on these languages. We develop GASC, a dynamic semantic change model that leverages categorical metadata about the texts' genre information to boost inference and uncover the evolution of meanings in Ancient Greek corpora. In a new evaluation framework, we show that our model achieves improved predictive performance compared to the state of the art.

In the last five years, the financial industry has been impacted by the emergence of digitalization and machine learning. In this article, we explore two methods that have undergone rapid development in recent years: Gaussian processes and Bayesian optimization. Gaussian processes can be seen as a generalization of Gaussian random vectors and are associated with the development of kernel methods. Bayesian optimization is an approach for performing derivative-free global optimization in a small dimension, and uses Gaussian processes to locate the global maximum of a black-box function. The first part of the article reviews these two tools and shows how they are connected. In particular, we focus on the Gaussian process regression, which is the core of Bayesian machine learning, and the issue of hyperparameter selection. The second part is dedicated to two financial applications. We first consider the modeling of the term structure of interest rates. More precisely, we test the fitting method and compare the GP prediction and the random walk model. The second application is the construction of trend-following strategies, in particular the online estimation of trend and covariance windows.