Finite mixture model is an important branch of clustering methods and can be applied on data sets with mixed types of variables. However, challenges exist in its applications. First, it typically relies on the EM algorithm which could be sensitive to the choice of initial values. Second, biomarkers subject to limits of detection (LOD) are common to encounter in clinical data, which brings censored variables into finite mixture model. Additionally, researchers are recently getting more interest in variable importance due to the increasing number of variables that become available for clustering. To address these challenges, we propose a Bayesian finite mixture model to simultaneously conduct variable selection, account for biomarker LOD and obtain clustering results. We took a Bayesian approach to obtain parameter estimates and the cluster membership to bypass the limitation of the EM algorithm. To account for LOD, we added one more step in Gibbs sampling to iteratively fill in biomarker values below or above LODs. In addition, we put a spike-and-slab type of prior on each variable to obtain variable importance. Simulations across various scenarios were conducted to examine the performance of this method. Real data application on electronic health records was also conducted.

Naive Bayes estimator is widely used in text classification problems. However, it doesn't perform well with small-size training dataset. We propose a new method based on Naive Bayes estimator to solve this problem. A correlation factor is introduced to incorporate the correlation among different classes. Experimental results show that our estimator achieves a better accuracy compared with traditional Naive Bayes in real world data.

The standard linear and logistic regression models assume that the response variables are independent, but share the same linear relationship to their corresponding vectors of covariates. The assumption that the response variables are independent is, however, too strong. In many applications, these responses are collected on nodes of a network, or some spatial or temporal domain, and are dependent. Examples abound in financial and meteorological applications, and dependencies naturally arise in social networks through peer effects. Regression with dependent responses has thus received a lot of attention in the Statistics and Economics literature, but there are no strong consistency results unless multiple independent samples of the vectors of dependent responses can be collected from these models. We present computationally and statistically efficient methods for linear and logistic regression models when the response variables are dependent on a network. Given one sample from a networked linear or logistic regression model and under mild assumptions, we prove strong consistency results for recovering the vector of coefficients and the strength of the dependencies, recovering the rates of standard regression under independent observations. We use projected gradient descent on the negative log-likelihood, or negative log-pseudolikelihood, and establish their strong convexity and consistency using concentration of measure for dependent random variables.

Machine learning techniques typically rely on large datasets to create accurate classifiers. However, there are situations when data is scarce and expensive to acquire. This is the case of studies that rely on state-of-the-art computational models which typically take days to run, thus hindering the potential of machine learning tools. In this work, we present a novel classifier that takes advantage of lower fidelity models and inexpensive approximations to predict the binary output of expensive computer simulations. We postulate an autoregressive model between the different levels of fidelity with Gaussian process priors. We adopt a fully Bayesian treatment for the hyper-parameters and use Markov Chain Mont Carlo samplers. We take advantage of the probabilistic nature of the classifier to implement active learning strategies. We also introduce a sparse approximation to enhance the ability of themulti-fidelity classifier to handle large datasets. We test these multi-fidelity classifiers against their single-fidelity counterpart with synthetic data, showing a median computational cost reduction of 23% for a target accuracy of 90%. In an application to cardiac electrophysiology, the multi-fidelity classifier achieves an F1 score, the harmonic mean of precision and recall, of 99.6% compared to 74.1% of a single-fidelity classifier when both are trained with 50 samples. In general, our results show that the multi-fidelity classifiers outperform their single-fidelity counterpart in terms of accuracy in all cases. We envision that this new tool will enable researchers to study classification problems that would otherwise be prohibitively expensive. Source code is available at https://github.com/fsahli/MFclass.

Variational Inference is a powerful tool in the Bayesian modeling toolkit, however, its effectiveness is determined by the expressivity of the utilized variational distributions in terms of their ability to match the true posterior distribution. In turn, the expressivity of the variational family is largely limited by the requirement of having a tractable density function. To overcome this roadblock, we introduce a new family of variational upper bounds on a marginal log density in the case of hierarchical models (also known as latent variable models). We then give an upper bound on the Kullback-Leibler divergence and derive a family of increasingly tighter variational lower bounds on the otherwise intractable standard evidence lower bound for hierarchical variational distributions, enabling the use of more expressive approximate posteriors. We show that previously known methods, such as Hierarchical Variational Models, Semi-Implicit Variational Inference and Doubly Semi-Implicit Variational Inference can be seen as special cases of the proposed approach, and empirically demonstrate superior performance of the proposed method in a set of experiments.

In this report we review memory-based meta-learning as a tool for building sample-efficient strategies that learn from past experience to adapt to any task within a target class. Our goal is to equip the reader with the conceptual foundations of this tool for building new, scalable agents that operate on broad domains. To do so, we present basic algorithmic templates for building near-optimal predictors and reinforcement learners which behave as if they had a probabilistic model that allowed them to efficiently exploit task structure. Furthermore, we recast memory-based meta-learning within a Bayesian framework, showing that the meta-learned strategies are near-optimal because they amortize Bayes-filtered data, where the adaptation is implemented in the memory dynamics as a state-machine of sufficient statistics. Essentially, memory-based meta-learning translates the hard problem of probabilistic sequential inference into a regression problem.

We present a unified invariance framework for supervised neural networks that can induce independence to nuisance factors of data without using any nuisance annotations, but can additionally use labeled information about biasing factors to force their removal from the latent embedding for making fair predictions. Invariance to nuisance is achieved by learning a split representation of data through competitive training between the prediction task and a reconstruction task coupled with disentanglement, whereas that to biasing factors is brought about by penalizing the network if the latent embedding contains any information about them. We describe an adversarial instantiation of this framework and provide analysis of its working. Our model outperforms previous works at inducing invariance to nuisance factors without using any labeled information about such variables, and achieves state-of-the-art performance at learning independence to biasing factors in fairness settings.

Pattern analysis often requires a pre-processing stage for extracting or selecting features in order to help the classification, prediction, or clustering stage discriminate or represent the data in a better way. The reason for this requirement is that the raw data are complex and difficult to process without extracting or selecting appropriate features beforehand. This paper reviews theory and motivation of different common methods of feature selection and extraction and introduces some of their applications. Some numerical implementations are also shown for these methods. Finally, the methods in feature selection and extraction are compared.

Clinical decision making is challenging because of pathological complexity, as well as large amounts of heterogeneous data generated as part of routine clinical care. In recent years, machine learning tools have been developed to aid this process. Intensive care unit (ICU) admissions represent the most data dense and time-critical patient care episodes. In this context, prediction models may help clinicians determine which patients are most at risk and prioritize care. However, flexible tools such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) suffer from a lack of interpretability limiting their acceptability to clinicians. In this work, we propose a novel interpretable Bayesian neural network architecture which offers both the flexibility of ANNs and interpretability in terms of feature selection. In particular, we employ a sparsity inducing prior distribution in a tied manner to learn which features are important for outcome prediction. We evaluate our approach on the task of mortality prediction using two real-world ICU cohorts. In collaboration with clinicians we found that, in addition to the predicted outcome results, our approach can provide novel insights into the importance of different clinical measurements. This suggests that our model can support medical experts in their decision making process.

We propose a topological learning algorithm for the estimation of the conditional dependency structure of large sets of random variables from sparse and noisy data. The algorithm, named Maximally Filtered Clique Forest (MFCF), produces a clique forest and an associated Markov Random Field (MRF) by generalising Prim's minimum spanning tree algorithm. To the best of our knowledge, the MFCF presents three elements of novelty with respect to existing structure learning approaches. The first is the repeated application of a local topological move, the clique expansion, that preserves the decomposability of the underlying graph. Through this move the decomposability and calculation of scores is performed incrementally at the variable (rather than edge) level, and this provides better computational performance and an intuitive application of multivariate statistical tests. The second is the capability to accommodate a variety of score functions and, while this paper is focused on multivariate normal distributions, it can be directly generalised to different types of statistics. Finally, the third is the variable range of allowed clique sizes which is an adjustable topological constraint that acts as a topological penalizer providing a way to tackle sparsity at $l_0$ semi-norm level; this allows a clean decoupling of structure learning and parameter estimation. The MFCF produces a representation of the clique forest, together with a perfect ordering of the cliques and a perfect elimination ordering for the vertices. As an example we propose an application to covariance selection models and we show that the MCFC outperforms the Graphical Lasso for a number of classes of matrices.