In cases of uncertainty, a multi-class classifier preferably returns a set of candidate classes instead of predicting a single class label with little guarantee. More precisely, the classifier should strive for an optimal balance between the correctness (the true class is among the candidates) and the precision (the candidates are not too many) of its prediction. We formalize this problem within a general decision-theoretic framework that unifies most of the existing work in this area. In this framework, uncertainty is quantified in terms of conditional class probabilities, and the quality of a predicted set is measured in terms of a utility function. We then address the problem of finding the Bayes-optimal prediction, i.e., the subset of class labels with highest expected utility. For this problem, which is computationally challenging as there are exponentially (in the number of classes) many predictions to choose from, we propose efficient algorithms that can be applied to a broad family of utility scores. Two of these algorithms make use of structural information in the form of a class hierarchy, which is often available in prediction problems with many classes. Our theoretical results are complemented by experimental studies, in which we analyze the proposed algorithms in terms of predictive accuracy and runtime efficiency.

Problems of interpolation, classification, and clustering are considered. In the tenets of Radon--Nikodym approach $\langle f(\mathbf{x})\psi^2 \rangle / \langle\psi^2\rangle$, where the $\psi(\mathbf{x})$ is a linear function on input attributes, all the answers are obtained from a generalized eigenproblem $|f|\psi^{[i]}\rangle = \lambda^{[i]} |\psi^{[i]}\rangle$. The solution to the interpolation problem is a regular Radon-Nikodym derivative. The solution to the classification problem requires prior and posterior probabilities that are obtained using the Lebesgue quadrature[1] technique. Whereas in a Bayesian approach new observations change only outcome probabilities, in the Radon-Nikodym approach not only outcome probabilities but also the probability space $|\psi^{[i]}\rangle$ change with new observations. This is a remarkable feature of the approach: both the probabilities and the probability space are constructed from the data. The Lebesgue quadrature technique can be also applied to the optimal clustering problem. The problem is solved by constructing a Gaussian quadrature on the Lebesgue measure. A distinguishing feature of the Radon-Nikodym approach is the knowledge of the invariant group: all the answers are invariant relatively any non-degenerated linear transform of input vector $\mathbf{x}$ components. A software product implementing the algorithms of interpolation, classification, and optimal clustering is available from the authors.

Consider semi-supervised learning for classification, where both labeled and unlabeled data are available for training. The goal is to exploit both datasets to achieve higher prediction accuracy than just using labeled data alone. We develop a semi-supervised logistic learning method based on exponential tilt mixture models, by extending a statistical equivalence between logistic regression and exponential tilt modeling. We study maximum nonparametric likelihood estimation and derive novel objective functions which are shown to be Fisher consistent. We also propose regularized estimation and construct simple and highly interpretable EM algorithms. Finally, we present numerical results which demonstrate the advantage of the proposed methods compared with existing methods.

With the explosive growth of e-commerce and the booming of e-payment, detecting online transaction fraud in real time has become increasingly important to Fintech business. To tackle this problem, we introduce the TitAnt, a transaction fraud detection system deployed in Ant Financial, one of the largest Fintech companies in the world. The system is able to predict online real-time transaction fraud in mere milliseconds. We present the problem definition, feature extraction, detection methods, implementation and deployment of the system, as well as empirical effectiveness. Extensive experiments have been conducted on large real-world transaction data to show the effectiveness and the efficiency of the proposed system.

The study of linguistic typology is rooted in the implications we find between linguistic features, such as the fact that languages with object-verb word ordering tend to have post-positions. Uncovering such implications typically amounts to time-consuming manual processing by trained and experienced linguists, which potentially leaves key linguistic universals unexplored. In this paper, we present a computational model which successfully identifies known universals, including Greenberg universals, but also uncovers new ones, worthy of further linguistic investigation. Our approach outperforms baselines previously used for this problem, as well as a strong baseline from knowledge base population.

We can also see this visually. We can verify the convergence of the chains formally using the Gelman Rubin test. Values close to 1.0 mean convergence. We can also test for correlation between samples in the chains. We are aiming for zero auto-correlation to get "random" samples from the posterior distribution.

As electronically stored data grow in daily life, obtaining novel and relevant information becomes challenging in text mining. Thus people have sought statistical methods based on term frequency, matrix algebra, or topic modeling for text mining. Popular topic models have centered on one single text collection, which is deficient for comparative text analyses. We consider a setting where one can partition the corpus into subcollections. Each subcollection shares a common set of topics, but there exists relative variation in topic proportions among collections. Including any prior knowledge about the corpus (e.g. organization structure), we propose the compound latent Dirichlet allocation (cLDA) model, improving on previous work, encouraging generalizability, and depending less on user-input parameters. To identify the parameters of interest in cLDA, we study Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and variational inference approaches extensively, and suggest an efficient MCMC method. We evaluate cLDA qualitatively and quantitatively using both synthetic and real-world corpora. The usability study on some real-world corpora illustrates the superiority of cLDA to explore the underlying topics automatically but also model their connections and variations across multiple collections.

The concept of causality has a controversial history. The question of whether it is possible to represent and address causal problems with probability theory, or if fundamentally new mathematics such as the do calculus is required has been hotly debated, e.g. Pearl (2001) states "the building blocks of our scientific and everyday knowledge are elementary facts such as "mud does not cause rain" and "symptoms do not cause disease" and those facts, strangely enough, cannot be expressed in the vocabulary of probability calculus". This has lead to a dichotomy between advocates of causal graphical modeling and the do calculus, and researchers applying Bayesian methods. In this paper we demonstrate that, while it is critical to explicitly model our assumptions on the impact of intervening in a system, provided we do so, estimating causal effects can be done entirely within the standard Bayesian paradigm. The invariance assumptions underlying causal graphical models can be encoded in ordinary Probabilistic graphical models, allowing causal estimation with Bayesian statistics, equivalent to the do calculus. Elucidating the connections between these approaches is a key step toward enabling the insights provided by each to be combined to solve real problems.

It is common practice in using regression type models for inferring causal effects, that inferring the correct causal relationship requires extra covariates are included or ``adjusted for''. Without performing this adjustment erroneous causal effects can be inferred. Given this phenomenon it is common practice to include as many covariates as possible, however such advice comes unstuck in the presence of M-bias. M-Bias is a problem in causal inference where the correct estimation of treatment effects requires that certain variables are not adjusted for i.e. are simply neglected from inclusion in the model. This issue caused a storm of controversy in 2009 when Rubin, Pearl and others disagreed about if it could be problematic to include additional variables in models when inferring causal effects. This paper makes two contributions to this issue. Firstly we provide a Bayesian solution to the M-Bias problem. The solution replicates Pearl's solution, but consistent with Rubin's advice we condition on all variables. Secondly the fact that we are able to offer a solution to this problem in Bayesian terms shows that it is indeed possible to represent causal relationships within the Bayesian paradigm, albeit in an extended space. We make several remarks on the similarities and differences between causal graphical models which implement the do-calculus and probabilistic graphical models which enable Bayesian statistics. We hope this work will stimulate more research on unifying Pearl's causal calculus using causal graphical models with traditional Bayesian statistics and probabilistic graphical models.

Machine learning develops rapidly, which has made many theoretical breakthroughs and is widely applied in various fields. Optimization, as an important part of machine learning, has attracted much attention of researchers. With the exponential growth of data amount and the increase of model complexity, optimization methods in machine learning face more and more challenges. A lot of work on solving optimization problems or improving optimization methods in machine learning has been proposed successively. The systematic retrospect and summary of the optimization methods from the perspective of machine learning are of great significance, which can offer guidance for both developments of optimization and machine learning research. In this paper, we first describe the optimization problems in machine learning. Then, we introduce the principles and progresses of commonly used optimization methods. Next, we summarize the applications and developments of optimization methods in some popular machine learning fields. Finally, we explore and give some challenges and open problems for the optimization in machine learning.