We consider the fusion of two aerodynamic data sets originating from differing fidelity physical or computer experiments. We specifically address the fusion of: 1) noisy and in-complete fields from wind tunnel measurements and 2) deterministic but biased fields from numerical simulations. These two data sources are fused in order to estimate the \emph{true} field that best matches measured quantities that serves as the ground truth. For example, two sources of pressure fields about an aircraft are fused based on measured forces and moments from a wind-tunnel experiment. A fundamental challenge in this problem is that the true field is unknown and can not be estimated with 100\% certainty. We employ a Bayesian framework to infer the true fields conditioned on measured quantities of interest; essentially we perform a \emph{statistical correction} to the data. The fused data may then be used to construct more accurate surrogate models suitable for early stages of aerospace design. We also introduce an extension of the Proper Orthogonal Decomposition with constraints to solve the same problem. Both methods are demonstrated on fusing the pressure distributions for flow past the RAE2822 airfoil and the Common Research Model wing at transonic conditions. Comparison of both methods reveal that the Bayesian method is more robust when data is scarce while capable of also accounting for uncertainties in the data. Furthermore, given adequate data, the POD based and Bayesian approaches lead to \emph{similar} results.

Bayesian Neural Networks with Latent Variables (BNN+LV's) provide uncertainties in prediction estimates by explicitly modeling model uncertainty (via priors on network weights) and environmental stochasticity (via a latent input noise variable). In this work, we first show that BNN+LV suffers from a serious form of non-identifiability: explanatory power can be transferred between model parameters and input noise while fitting the data equally well. We demonstrate that, as a result, traditional inference methods may yield parameters that reconstruct observed data well but generalize poorly. Next, we develop a novel inference procedure that explicitly mitigates the effects of likelihood non-identifiability during training and yields high quality predictions as well as uncertainty estimates. We demonstrate that our inference method improves upon benchmark methods across a range of synthetic and real datasets.

Learning the causal-interaction network of multivariate Hawkes processes is a useful task in many applications. Maximum-likelihood estimation is the most common approach to solve the problem in the presence of long observation sequences. However, when only short sequences are available, the lack of data amplifies the risk of overfitting and regularization becomes critical. Due to the challenges of hyper-parameter tuning, state-of-the-art methods only parameterize regularizers by a single shared hyper-parameter, hence limiting the power of representation of the model. To solve both issues, we develop in this work an efficient algorithm based on variational expectation-maximization. Our approach is able to optimize over an extended set of hyper-parameters. It is also able to take into account the uncertainty in the model parameters by learning a posterior distribution over them. Experimental results on both synthetic and real datasets show that our approach significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods under short observation sequences.

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Probability is a measure of uncertainty. Probability applies to machine learning because in the real world, we need to make decisions with incomplete information. Hence, we need a mechanism to quantify uncertainty – which Probability provides us. Using probability, we can model elements of uncertainty such as risk in financial transactions and many other business processes. In contrast, in traditional programming, we work with deterministic problems i.e. the solution is not affected by uncertainty.

Learning exists in the context of data, yet notions of $\textit{confidence}$ typically focus on model predictions, not label quality. Confident learning (CL) has emerged as an approach for characterizing, identifying, and learning with noisy labels in datasets, based on the principles of pruning noisy data, counting to estimate noise, and ranking examples to train with confidence. Here, we generalize CL, building on the assumption of a classification noise process, to directly estimate the joint distribution between noisy (given) labels and uncorrupted (unknown) labels. This generalized CL, open-sourced as $\texttt{cleanlab}$, is provably consistent under reasonable conditions, and experimentally performant on ImageNet and CIFAR, outperforming recent approaches, e.g. MentorNet, by $30\%$ or more, when label noise is non-uniform. $\texttt{cleanlab}$ also quantifies ontological class overlap, and can increase model accuracy (e.g. ResNet) by providing clean data for training.

Black Box Machine Learning models leak information about the proprietary model parameters and architecture, both through side channels and output predictions. An adversary can thus, exploit this leakage to reconstruct a substitute architecture similar to the target model, violating the model privacy and Intellectual Property. However, all such attacks, infer a subset of the target model attributes and identifying the rest of the architecture and parameters (optimally) is a search problem. Extracting the exact target model is not possible owing to the uncertainty in the inference attack outputs and stochastic nature of the training process. In this work, we propose a probabilistic framework, Airavata, to estimate the leakage in such model extraction attacks. Specifically, we use Bayesian Networks to capture the uncertainty, under the subjective notion of probability, in estimating the target model attributes using various model extraction attacks. We experimentally validate the model under different adversary assumptions commonly adopted by various model extraction attacks to reason about the attack efficacy. Further, this provides a practical approach of inferring actionable knowledge about extracting black box models and identify the best combination of attacks which maximise the knowledge extracted (information leaked) from the target model.

Regularization methods, specifically those which directly alter weights like $L_1$ and $L_2$, are an integral part of many learning algorithms. Both the regularizers mentioned above are formulated by assuming certain priors in the parameter space and these assumptions, in some cases, induce sparsity in the parameter space. Regularizers help in transferring beliefs one has on the dataset or the parameter space by introducing adequate terms in the loss function. Any kind of formulation represents a specific set of beliefs: $L_1$ regularization conveys that the parameter space should be sparse whereas $L_2$ regularization conveys that the parameter space should be bounded and continuous. These regularizers in turn leverage certain priors to express these inherent beliefs. A better understanding of how the prior affects the behavior of the parameters and how the priors can be updated based on the dataset can contribute greatly in improving the generalization capabilities of a function estimator. In this work, we introduce a weakly informative prior and then further extend it to an informative prior in order to formulate a regularization penalty, which shows better results in terms of inducing sparsity experimentally, when compared to regularizers based only on Gaussian and Laplacian priors. Experimentally, we verify that a regularizer based on an adapted prior improves the generalization capabilities of any network. We illustrate the performance of the proposed method on the MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets.

Bayesian inference in state-space models is challenging due to high-dimensional state trajectories. A viable approach is particle Markov chain Monte Carlo, combining MCMC and sequential Monte Carlo to form "exact approximations" to otherwise intractable MCMC methods. The performance of the approximation is limited to that of the exact method. We focus on particle Gibbs and particle Gibbs with ancestor sampling, improving their performance beyond that of the underlying Gibbs sampler (which they approximate) by marginalizing out one or more parameters. This is possible when the parameter prior is conjugate to the complete data likelihood. Marginalization yields a non-Markovian model for inference, but we show that, in contrast to the general case, this method still scales linearly in time. While marginalization can be cumbersome to implement, recent advances in probabilistic programming have enabled its automation. We demonstrate how the marginalized methods are viable as efficient inference backends in probabilistic programming, and demonstrate with examples in ecology and epidemiology.

Markov networks are widely studied and used throughout multivariate statistics and computer science. In particular, the problem of learning the structure of Markov networks from data without invoking chordality assumptions in order to retain expressiveness of the model class has been given a considerable attention in the recent literature, where numerous constraint-based or score-based methods have been introduced. Here we develop a new search algorithm for the network score-optimization that has several computational advantages and scales well to high-dimensional data sets. The key observation behind the algorithm is that the neighborhood of a variable can be efficiently captured using local penalized likelihood ratio (PLR) tests by exploiting an exponential decay of correlations across the neighborhood with an increasing graph-theoretic distance from the focus node. The candidate neighborhoods are then processed by a two-stage hill-climbing (HC) algorithm. Our approach, termed fully as PLRHC-BIC$_{0.5}$, compares favorably against the state-of-the-art methods in all our experiments spanning both low- and high-dimensional networks and a wide range of sample sizes. An efficient implementation of PLRHC-BIC$_{0.5}$ is freely available from the URL: https://github.com/jurikuronen/plrhc.