Tree-based algorithms for supervised learning, such as Classification and Regression Trees (CART) (Breiman et al., 1984), random forests (Breiman, 1996, 2001), adaBoost (Freund and Schapire, 1997), and gradient boosting (Breiman, 1997; Friedman, 2001, 2002), are widely used for applied supervised learning. As a whole, these methods are popular in applied settings due to their speed and accuracy in mean estimation and out-of-sample prediction tasks. One limitation of such methods is their well-known sensitivity to tuning parameters, which require costly cross-validation to optimize. Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) (Chipman et al., 2007, 2010) is a popular model-based alternative that is often more accurate than other treebased methods; specifically, BART boasts valuable robustness to the choice of tuning-parameters. However, relative to random forests and boosting, BART's wider adoption has been slowed by its more severe computational demands, owing to its reliance on a random walk Metropolis-Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. Despite this limitation, BART has inspired a considerable body of research in recent years.

Let's review the concepts underlying Bayesian statistical analysis by walking through a simple classification model. The data come from the 1988 Bangladesh Fertility Survey, where 1934 observations were taken from women in urban and rural areas. The authors of the dataset, Mn and Cleland aimed to determine trends and causes of fertility as well as differences in fertility and child mortality. We will use the data in order to train a Bayesian logistic regression model that can predict if a given woman uses contraception. The dataset is well suited to Bayesian logistic regression because being able to quantify uncertainty when analyzing fertility is the major component of population dynamics that decide the size, structure, and composition of populations (source 1, source 2).

Image data has been greatly produced by individuals and commercial vendors in the daily life, and it has been used across various domains, like advertising, medical and traffic analysis. Recently, image data also appears to be greatly important in social utility, like emergency response. However, the privacy concern becomes the biggest obstacle that prevents further exploration of image data, due to that the image could reveal sensitive information, like the personal identity and locations. The recent developed Local Differential Privacy (LDP) brings us a promising solution, which allows the data owners to randomly perturb their input to provide the plausible deniability of the data before releasing. In this paper, we consider a two-party image classification problem, in which data owners hold the image and the untrustworthy data user would like to fit a machine learning model with these images as input. To protect the image privacy, we propose to locally perturb the image representation before revealing to the data user. Subsequently, we analyze how the perturbation satisfies {\epsilon}-LDP and affect the data utility regarding count-based and distance-based machine learning algorithm, and propose a supervised image feature extractor, DCAConv, which produces an image representation with scalable domain size. Our experiments show that DCAConv could maintain a high data utility while preserving the privacy regarding multiple image benchmark datasets.

Overfitting and treatment of "small data" are among the most challenging problems in the machine learning (ML), when a relatively small data statistics size $T$ is not enough to provide a robust ML fit for a relatively large data feature dimension $D$. Deploying a massively-parallel ML analysis of generic classification problems for different $D$ and $T$, existence of statistically-significant linear overfitting barriers for common ML methods is demonstrated. For example, these results reveal that for a robust classification of bioinformatics-motivated generic problems with the Long Short-Term Memory deep learning classifier (LSTM) one needs in a best case a statistics $T$ that is at least 13.8 times larger then the feature dimension $D$. It is shown that this overfitting barrier can be breached at a $10^{-12}$ fraction of the computational cost by means of the entropy-optimal Scalable Probabilistic Approximations algorithm (eSPA), performing a joint solution of the entropy-optimal Bayesian network inference and feature space segmentation problems. Application of eSPA to experimental single cell RNA sequencing data exhibits a 30-fold classification performance boost when compared to standard bioinformatics tools - and a 7-fold boost when compared to the deep learning LSTM classifier.

Bayesian reinforcement learning (BRL) offers a decision-theoretic solution to the problem of reinforcement learning. However, typical model-based BRL algorithms have focused either on ma intaining a posterior distribution on models or value functions and combining this with approx imate dynamic programming or tree search. This paper describes a novel backwards induction pri nciple for performing joint Bayesian estimation of models and value functions, from which many new BRL algorithms can be obtained. We demonstrate this idea with algorithms and experiments in discrete state spaces.

Machine Learning Lecture at CMU by Ke Li, Ph.D. Candidate at the University of California, Berkeley Lecturer: Ke Li Carnegie Mellon University Abstract: In this talk, Li presents his team's work on overcoming two long-standing problems in machine learning and algorithms: 1. Mode collapse in generative adversarial nets (GANs) Generative adversarial nets (GANs) are perhaps the most popular class of generative models in use today. Unfortunately, they suffer from the well-documented problem of mode collapse, which the many successive variants of GANs have failed to overcome. I will illustrate why mode collapse happens fundamentally and show a simple way to overcome it, which is the basis of a new method known as Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (IMLE). It turns out that this problem is not insurmountable - I will explain how the curse of dimensionality arises and show a simple way to overcome it, which gives rise to a new family of algorithms known as Dynamic Continuous Indexing (DCI). Bio: Ke Li is a recent Ph.D. graduate from UC Berkeley, where he was advised by Prof. Jitendra Malik, and will join Google as a Research Scientist and the Institute for Advanced Study (IAS) as a Member hosted by Prof. Sanjeev Arora.

Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have received much attention in Bayesian computing for big data problems, but they are only applicable to a small class of problems for which the parameter space has a fixed dimension and the log-posterior density is differentiable with respect to the parameters. This paper proposes an extended stochastic gradient MCMC lgoriathm which, by introducing appropriate latent variables, can be applied to more general large-scale Bayesian computing problems, such as those involving dimension jumping and missing data. Numerical studies show that the proposed algorithm is highly scalable and much more efficient than traditional MCMC algorithms. The proposed algorithms have much alleviated the pain of Bayesian methods in big data computing.

Variational Bayesian Inference is a popular methodology for approximating posterior distributions over Bayesian neural network weights. Recent work developing this class of methods has explored ever richer parameterizations of the approximate posterior in the hope of improving performance. In contrast, here we share a curious experimental finding that suggests instead restricting the variational distribution to a more compact parameterization. For a variety of deep Bayesian neural networks trained using Gaussian mean-field variational inference, we find that the posterior standard deviations consistently exhibit strong low-rank structure after convergence. This means that by decomposing these variational parameters into a low-rank factorization, we can make our variational approximation more compact without decreasing the models' performance. Furthermore, we find that such factorized parameterizations improve the signal-to-noise ratio of stochastic gradient estimates of the variational lower bound, resulting in faster convergence.

Mathematical models of system dynamics are a core technology in most model-based engineered systems acting and interacting with their environment. Examples include GPS, autonomous vehicles, passenger aircraft and robotics, to name just a few. The remarkable utility of mathematical models stems from the fact that, inter alia, they enable decision making based on prediction of system behaviour under new scenarios, accelerate the analysis and design processes, are fundamental to detecting faults or changes, and they are capable of handling uncertainty that is present in data, assumptions and algorithms. Motivated by the broad applicability and utility of modelling, the scientific community has devoted significant research attention towards learning dynamical models from data. Importantly, for dynamic systems, the sequence or ordering of the data must be maintained as future outcomes are deemed to be fundamentally related to the past. This is sometimes called sequence learning (Sun and Giles, 2001) or system identification (Ljung, 1999). In essence, these approaches search over a space of models and determine the model that best (in some sense) fits the data while maintaining the time ordering. The current paper is directed towards solving this important problem. To make these ideas more concrete, here we assume that data from the system of interest is available in the form of a data record y 1:T {y 1,...,y T }, where each measurementy k is potentially multidimensional and the number of available measurements is denoted as T 0. We further assume that the data may be adequately described as an instance from a joint distribution that is parametrized by an unknown vectorθ (called the parameter vector), that is (with abuse of notation)

Despite strong performance on a variety of tasks, neural sequence models trained with maximum likelihood have been shown to exhibit issues such as length bias and degenerate repetition. We study the related issue of receiving infinite-length sequences from a recurrent language model when using common decoding algorithms. To analyze this issue, we first define inconsistency of a decoding algorithm, meaning that the algorithm can yield an infinite-length sequence that has zero probability under the model. We prove that commonly used incomplete decoding algorithms - greedy search, beam search, top-k sampling, and nucleus sampling - are inconsistent, despite the fact that recurrent language models are trained to produce sequences of finite length. Based on these insights, we propose two remedies which address inconsistency: consistent variants of top-k and nucleus sampling, and a self-terminating recurrent language model. Empirical results show that inconsistency occurs in practice, and that the proposed methods prevent inconsistency.