We present a conversational recommendation system based on a Bayesian approach. A probability mass function over the items is updated after any interaction with the user, with information-theoretic criteria optimally shaping the interaction and deciding when the conversation should be terminated and the most probable item consequently recommended. Dedicated elicitation techniques for the prior probabilities of the parameters modeling the interactions are derived from basic structural judgements. Such prior information can be combined with historical data to discriminate items with different recommendation histories. A case study based on the application of this approach to \emph{stagend.com}, an online platform for booking entertainers, is finally discussed together with an empirical analysis showing the advantages in terms of recommendation quality and efficiency.

Named entity linking is to map an ambiguous mention in documents to an entity in a knowledge base. The named entity linking is challenging, given the fact that there are multiple candidate entities for a mention in a document. It is difficult to link a mention when it appears multiple times in a document, since there are conflicts by the contexts around the appearances of the mention. In addition, it is difficult since the given training dataset is small due to the reason that it is done manually to link a mention to its mapping entity. In the literature, there are many reported studies among which the recent embedding methods learn vectors of entities from the training dataset at document level. To address these issues, we focus on how to link entity for mentions at a sentence level, which reduces the noises introduced by different appearances of the same mention in a document at the expense of insufficient information to be used. We propose a new unified embedding method by maximizing the relationships learned from knowledge graphs. We confirm the effectiveness of our method in our experimental studies.

Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) are at the center of health economic decision making. While these analyses help policy analysts and economists determine coverage, inform policy, and guide resource allocation, they are statistically challenging for several reasons. Cost and effectiveness are correlated and follow complex joint distributions which cannot be captured parametrically. Effectiveness (often measured as increased survival time) and cost both tend to be right-censored. Moreover, CEAs are often conducted using observational data with non-random treatment assignment. Policy-relevant causal estimation therefore requires robust confounding control. Finally, current CEA methods do not address cost-effectiveness heterogeneity in a principled way - opting to either present marginal results or cost-effectiveness results for pre-specified subgroups. Motivated by these challenges, we develop a nonparametric Bayesian model for joint cost-survival distributions in the presence of censoring. Our approach utilizes an Enriched Dirichlet Process prior on the covariate effects of cost and survival time, while using a separate Gamma Process prior on the baseline survival time hazard. Causal CEA estimands are identified and estimated via a Bayesian nonparametric g-computation procedure. Finally, we propose leveraging the induced clustering of the Enriched Dirichlet Process to adaptively discover subgroups of patients with different cost-effectiveness profiles. We outline an MCMC procedure for full posterior inference, evaluate frequentist properties via simulations, and apply our model to an observational study of endometrial cancer therapies using medical insurance claims data.

We outline an inherent weakness of tensor factorization models when latent factors are expressed as a function of side information and propose a novel method to mitigate this weakness. We coin our method \textit{Kernel Fried Tensor}(KFT) and present it as a large scale forecasting tool for high dimensional data. Our results show superior performance against \textit{LightGBM} and \textit{Field Aware Factorization Machines}(FFM), two algorithms with proven track records widely used in industrial forecasting. We also develop a variational inference framework for KFT and associate our forecasts with calibrated uncertainty estimates on three large scale datasets. Furthermore, KFT is empirically shown to be robust against uninformative side information in terms of constants and Gaussian noise.

Click-through data has proven to be a valuable resource for improving search-ranking quality. Search engines can easily collect click data, but biases introduced in the data can make it difficult to use the data effectively. In order to measure the effects of biases, many click models have been proposed in the literature. However, none of the models can explain the observation that users with different search intent (e.g., informational, navigational, etc.) have different click behaviors. In this paper, we study how differences in user search intent can influence click activities and determined that there exists a bias between user search intent and the relevance of the document relevance. Based on this observation, we propose a search intent bias hypothesis that can be applied to most existing click models to improve their ability to learn unbiased relevance. Experimental results demonstrate that after adopting the search intent hypothesis, click models can better interpret user clicks and substantially improve retrieval performance.

A common issue for classification in scientific research and industry is the existence of imbalanced classes. When sample sizes of different classes are imbalanced in training data, naively implementing a classification method often leads to unsatisfactory prediction results on test data. Multiple resampling techniques have been proposed to address the class imbalance issues. Yet, there is no general guidance on when to use each technique. In this article, we provide an objective-oriented review of the common resampling techniques for binary classification under imbalanced class sizes. The learning objectives we consider include the classical paradigm that minimizes the overall classification error, the cost-sensitive learning paradigm that minimizes a cost-adjusted weighted type I and type II errors, and the Neyman-Pearson paradigm that minimizes the type II error subject to a type I error constraint. Under each paradigm, we investigate the combination of the resampling techniques and a few state-of-the-art classification methods. For each pair of resampling techniques and classification methods, we use simulation studies to study the performance under different evaluation metrics. From these extensive simulation experiments, we demonstrate under each classification paradigm, the complex dynamics among resampling techniques, base classification methods, evaluation metrics, and imbalance ratios. For practitioners, the take-away message is that with imbalanced data, one usually should consider all the combinations of resampling techniques and the base classification methods.

We study the problem of efficiently estimating the effect of an intervention on a single variable using observational samples in a causal Bayesian network. Our goal is to give algorithms that are efficient in both time and sample complexity in a non-parametric setting. Tian and Pearl (AAAI `02) have exactly characterized the class of causal graphs for which causal effects of atomic interventions can be identified from observational data. We make their result quantitative. Suppose P is a causal model on a set V of n observable variables with respect to a given causal graph G with observable distribution $P$. Let $P_x$ denote the interventional distribution over the observables with respect to an intervention of a designated variable X with x. We show that assuming that G has bounded in-degree, bounded c-components, and that the observational distribution is identifiable and satisfies certain strong positivity condition: 1. [Evaluation] There is an algorithm that outputs with probability $2/3$ an evaluator for a distribution $P'$ that satisfies $d_{tv}(P_x, P') \leq \epsilon$ using $m=\tilde{O}(n\epsilon^{-2})$ samples from $P$ and $O(mn)$ time. The evaluator can return in $O(n)$ time the probability $P'(v)$ for any assignment $v$ to $V$. 2. [Generation] There is an algorithm that outputs with probability $2/3$ a sampler for a distribution $\hat{P}$ that satisfies $d_{tv}(P_x, \hat{P}) \leq \epsilon$ using $m=\tilde{O}(n\epsilon^{-2})$ samples from $P$ and $O(mn)$ time. The sampler returns an iid sample from $\hat{P}$ with probability $1-\delta$ in $O(n\epsilon^{-1} \log\delta^{-1})$ time. We extend our techniques to estimate marginals $P_x|_Y$ over a given $Y \subset V$ of interest. We also show lower bounds for the sample complexity showing that our sample complexity has optimal dependence on the parameters n and $\epsilon$ as well as the strong positivity parameter.

Probabilistic neural networks are typically modeled with independent weight priors, which do not capture weight correlations in the prior and do not provide a parsimonious interface to express properties in function space. A desirable class of priors would represent weights compactly, capture correlations between weights, facilitate calibrated reasoning about uncertainty, and allow inclusion of prior knowledge about the function space such as periodicity or dependence on contexts such as inputs. To this end, this paper introduces two innovations: (i) a Gaussian process-based hierarchical model for network weights based on unit embeddings that can flexibly encode correlated weight structures, and (ii) input-dependent versions of these weight priors that can provide convenient ways to regularize the function space through the use of kernels defined on contextual inputs. We show these models provide desirable test-time uncertainty estimates on out-of-distribution data, demonstrate cases of modeling inductive biases for neural networks with kernels which help both interpolation and extrapolation from training data, and demonstrate competitive predictive performance on an active learning benchmark.

We study the information content of nuclear masses from the perspective of global models of nuclear binding energies. To this end, we employ a number of statistical methods and diagnostic tools, including Bayesian calibration, Bayesian model averaging, chi-square correlation analysis, principal component analysis, and empirical coverage probability. Using Bayesian framework, we investigate the structure of the 4-parameter Liquid Drop Model by considering discrepant mass domains for calibration. We then use the chi-square correlation framework to analyze the 14-parameter Skyrme energy density functional calibrated using homogeneous and heterogeneous datasets. We show that a quite dramatic parameter reduction can be achieved in both cases. The advantage of the Bayesian model averaging for improving the uncertainty quantification is demonstrated. The statistical approaches used are pedagogically described; in this context this work can serve as a guide for future applications.

Most predictive models assume that training and test data are generated from a stationary process. However, this assumption does not hold true in practice. In this paper, we consider the scenario of a gradual concept drift due to the underlying non-stationarity of the data source. While previous work has investigated this scenario under a supervised-learning and adaption conditions, few have addressed the common, real-world scenario when labels are only available during training. We propose a novel, iterative algorithm for unsupervised adaptation of predictive models. We show that the performance of our batch adapted prediction algorithm is better than that of its corresponding unadapted version. The proposed algorithm provides similar (or better, in most cases) performance within significantly less run time compared to other state of the art methods.