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 Bayesian Learning


Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs): Challenges, Solutions, and Future Directions

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) is a novel class of deep generative models which has recently gained significant attention. GANs learns complex and high-dimensional distributions implicitly over images, audio, and data. However, there exists major challenges in training of GANs, i.e., mode collapse, non-convergence and instability, due to inappropriate design of network architecture, use of objective function and selection of optimization algorithm. Recently, to address these challenges, several solutions for better design and optimization of GANs have been investigated based on techniques of re-engineered network architectures, new objective functions and alternative optimization algorithms. To the best of our knowledge, there is no existing survey that has particularly focused on broad and systematic developments of these solutions. In this study, we perform a comprehensive survey of the advancements in GANs design and optimization solutions proposed to handle GANs challenges. We first identify key research issues within each design and optimization technique and then propose a new taxonomy to structure solutions by key research issues. In accordance with the taxonomy, we provide a detailed discussion on different GANs variants proposed within each solution and their relationships. Finally, based on the insights gained, we present the promising research directions in this rapidly growing field.


Relevance Vector Machine with Weakly Informative Hyperprior and Extended Predictive Information Criterion

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In the variational relevance vector machine, the gamma distribution is representative as a hyperprior over the noise precision of automatic relevance determination prior. Instead of the gamma hyperprior, we propose to use the inverse gamma hyperprior with a shape parameter close to zero and a scale parameter not necessary close to zero. This hyperprior is associated with the concept of a weakly informative prior. The effect of this hyperprior is investigated through regression to non-homogeneous data. Because it is difficult to capture the structure of such data with a single kernel function, we apply the multiple kernel method, in which multiple kernel functions with different widths are arranged for input data. We confirm that the degrees of freedom in a model is controlled by adjusting the scale parameter and keeping the shape parameter close to zero. A candidate for selecting the scale parameter is the predictive information criterion. However the estimated model using this criterion seems to cause over-fitting. This is because the multiple kernel method makes the model a situation where the dimension of the model is larger than the data size. To select an appropriate scale parameter even in such a situation, we also propose an extended prediction information criterion. It is confirmed that a multiple kernel relevance vector regression model with good predictive accuracy can be obtained by selecting the scale parameter minimizing extended prediction information criterion.


Restricted maximum-likelihood method for learning latent variance components in gene expression data with known and unknown confounders

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Linear mixed modelling is a popular approach for detecting and correcting spurious sample correlations due to hidden confounders in genome-wide gene expression data. In applications where some confounding factors are known, estimating simultaneously the contribution of known and latent variance components in linear mixed models is a challenge that has so far relied on numerical gradient-based optimizers to maximize the likelihood function. This is unsatisfactory because the resulting solution is poorly characterized and the efficiency of the method may be suboptimal. Here we prove analytically that maximum-likelihood latent variables can always be chosen orthogonal to the known confounding factors, in other words, that maximum-likelihood latent variables explain sample covariances not already explained by known factors. Based on this result we propose a restricted maximum-likelihood method which estimates the latent variables by maximizing the likelihood on the restricted subspace orthogonal to the known confounding factors, and show that this reduces to probabilistic PCA on that subspace. The method then estimates the variance-covariance parameters by maximizing the remaining terms in the likelihood function given the latent variables, using a newly derived analytic solution for this problem. Compared to gradient-based optimizers, our method attains equal or higher likelihood values, can be computed using standard matrix operations, results in latent factors that don't overlap with any known factors, and has a runtime reduced by several orders of magnitude. We anticipate that the restricted maximum-likelihood method will facilitate the application of linear mixed modelling strategies for learning latent variance components to much larger gene expression datasets than currently possible.


Bayesian Entailment Hypothesis: How Brains Implement Monotonic and Non-monotonic Reasoning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent success of Bayesian methods in neuroscience and artificial intelligence gives rise to the hypothesis that the brain is a Bayesian machine. Since logic, as the laws of thought, is a product and practice of the human brain, it leads to another hypothesis that there is a Bayesian algorithm and data-structure for logical reasoning. In this paper, we give a Bayesian account of entailment and characterize its abstract inferential properties. The Bayesian entailment is shown to be a monotonic consequence relation in an extreme case. In general, it is a sort of non-monotonic consequence relation without Cautious monotony or Cut. The preferential entailment, which is a representative non-monotonic consequence relation, is shown to be maximum a posteriori entailment, which is an approximation of the Bayesian entailment. We finally discuss merits of our proposals in terms of encoding preferences on defaults, handling change and contradiction, and modeling human entailment.


Ensuring Fairness under Prior Probability Shifts

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we study the problem of fair classification in the presence of prior probability shifts, where the training set distribution differs from the test set. This phenomenon can be observed in the yearly records of several real-world datasets, such as recidivism records and medical expenditure surveys. If unaccounted for, such shifts can cause the predictions of a classifier to become unfair towards specific population subgroups. While the fairness notion called Proportional Equality (PE) accounts for such shifts, a procedure to ensure PE-fairness was unknown. In this work, we propose a method, called CAPE, which provides a comprehensive solution to the aforementioned problem. CAPE makes novel use of prevalence estimation techniques, sampling and an ensemble of classifiers to ensure fair predictions under prior probability shifts. We introduce a metric, called prevalence difference (PD), which CAPE attempts to minimize in order to ensure PE-fairness. We theoretically establish that this metric exhibits several desirable properties. We evaluate the efficacy of CAPE via a thorough empirical evaluation on synthetic datasets. We also compare the performance of CAPE with several popular fair classifiers on real-world datasets like COMPAS (criminal risk assessment) and MEPS (medical expenditure panel survey). The results indicate that CAPE ensures PE-fair predictions, while performing well on other performance metrics.


Online Parameter Estimation for Human Driver Behavior Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Driver models are invaluable for planning in autonomous vehicles as well as validating their safety in simulation. Highly parameterized black-box driver models are very expressive, and can capture nuanced behavior. However, they usually lack interpretability and sometimes exhibit unrealistic-even dangerous-behavior. Rule-based models are interpretable, and can be designed to guarantee "safe" behavior, but are less expressive due to their low number of parameters. In this article, we show that online parameter estimation applied to the Intelligent Driver Model captures nuanced individual driving behavior while providing collision free trajectories. We solve the online parameter estimation problem using particle filtering, and benchmark performance against rule-based and black-box driver models on two real world driving data sets. We evaluate the closeness of our driver model to ground truth data demonstration and also assess the safety of the resulting emergent driving behavior.


A Ladder of Causal Distances

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Causal discovery, the task of automatically constructing a causal model from data, is of major significance across the sciences. Evaluating the performance of causal discovery algorithms should ideally involve comparing the inferred models to ground-truth models available for benchmark datasets, which in turn requires a notion of distance between causal models. While such distances have been proposed previously, they are limited by focusing on graphical properties of the causal models being compared. Here, we overcome this limitation by defining distances derived from the causal distributions induced by the models, rather than exclusively from their graphical structure. Pearl and Mackenzie (2018) have arranged the properties of causal models in a hierarchy called the "ladder of causation" spanning three rungs: observational, interventional, and counterfactual. Following this organization, we introduce a hierarchy of three distances, one for each rung of the ladder. Our definitions are intuitively appealing as well as efficient to compute approximately. We put our causal distances to use by benchmarking standard causal discovery systems on both synthetic and real-world datasets for which ground-truth causal models are available. Finally, we highlight the usefulness of our causal distances by briefly discussing further applications beyond the evaluation of causal discovery techniques.


Explainable AI for Classification using Probabilistic Logic Inference

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The overarching goal of Explainable AI is to develop systems that not only exhibit intelligent behaviours, but also are able to explain their rationale and reveal insights. In explainable machine learning, methods that produce a high level of prediction accuracy as well as transparent explanations are valuable. In this work, we present an explainable classification method. Our method works by first constructing a symbolic Knowledge Base from the training data, and then performing probabilistic inferences on such Knowledge Base with linear programming. Our approach achieves a level of learning performance comparable to that of traditional classifiers such as random forests, support vector machines and neural networks. It identifies decisive features that are responsible for a classification as explanations and produces results similar to the ones found by SHAP, a state of the art Shapley Value based method. Our algorithms perform well on a range of synthetic and non-synthetic data sets.


Variational Bayes In Private Settings (VIPS)

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Many applications of Bayesian data analysis involve sensitive information such as personal documents or medical records, motivating methods which ensure that privacy is protected. We introduce a general privacy-preserving framework for Variational Bayes (VB), a widely used optimization-based Bayesian inference method. Our framework respects differential privacy, the gold-standard privacy criterion, and encompasses a large class of probabilistic models, called the Conjugate Exponential (CE) family. We observe that we can straightforwardly privatise VB's approximate posterior distributions for models in the CE family, by perturbing the expected sufficient statistics of the complete-data likelihood. For a broadly-used class of non-CE models, those with binomial likelihoods, we show how to bring such models into the CE family, such that inferences in the modified model resemble the private variational Bayes algorithm as closely as possible, using the Pólya-Gamma data augmentation scheme. The iterative nature of variational Bayes presents a further challenge since iterations increase the amount of noise needed. We overcome this by combining: (1) an improved composition method for differential privacy, called the moments accountant, which provides a tight bound on the privacy cost of multiple VB iterations and thus significantly decreases the amount of additive noise; and (2) the privacy amplification effect of subsampling mini-batches from large-scale data in stochastic learning. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in CE and non-CE models including latent Dirichlet allocation, Bayesian logistic regression, and sigmoid belief networks, evaluated on real-world datasets.


Predicting Diabetes Using a Machine learning Approach

#artificialintelligence

Using the ML approach, we can now assess diabetes in the patient. Learn more about how the algorithms used are dramatically changing health care. Diabetes is one of the deadliest diseases in the world. It is not only a disease, but also a creator of a variety of diseases such as heart attacks, blindness, and kidney diseases. The usual detection process is that patients visit the diagnostic center, consult their physician, and sit tight for a day or more to get their reports.