We present CRISP (COVID-19 Risk Score Prediction), a probabilistic graphical model for COVID-19 infection spread through a population based on the SEIR model where we assume access to (1) mutual contacts between pairs of individuals across time across various channels (e.g., Bluetooth contact traces), as well as (2) test outcomes at given times for infection, exposure and immunity tests. Our micro-level model keeps track of the infection state for each individual at every point in time, ranging from susceptible, exposed, infectious to recovered. We develop a Monte Carlo EM algorithm to infer contact-channel specific infection transmission probabilities. Our algorithm uses Gibbs sampling to draw samples of the latent infection status of each individual over the entire time period of analysis, given the latent infection status of all contacts and test outcome data. Experimental results with simulated data demonstrate our CRISP model can be parametrized by the reproduction factor $R_0$ and exhibits population-level infectiousness and recovery time series similar to those of the classical SEIR model. However, due to the individual contact data, this model allows fine grained control and inference for a wide range of COVID-19 mitigation and suppression policy measures. Moreover, the algorithm is able to support efficient testing in a test-trace-isolate approach to contain COVID-19 infection spread. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first model with efficient inference for COVID-19 infection spread based on individual-level contact data; most epidemic models are macro-level models that reason over entire populations. The implementation of CRISP is available in Python and C++ at https://github.com/zalandoresearch/CRISP.

Historically, machine learning methods have not been designed with security in mind. In turn, this has given rise to adversarial examples, carefully perturbed input samples aimed to mislead detection at test time, which have been applied to attack spam and malware classification, and more recently to attack image classification. Consequently, an abundance of research has been devoted to designing machine learning methods that are robust to adversarial examples. Unfortunately, there are desiderata besides robustness that a secure and safe machine learning model must satisfy, such as fairness and privacy. Recent work by Song et al. (2019) has shown, empirically, that there exists a trade-off between robust and private machine learning models. Models designed to be robust to adversarial examples often overfit on training data to a larger extent than standard (non-robust) models. If a dataset contains private information, then any statistical test that separates training and test data by observing a model's outputs can represent a privacy breach, and if a model overfits on training data, these statistical tests become easier. In this work, we identify settings where standard models will provably overfit to a larger extent in comparison to robust models, and as empirically observed in previous works, settings where the opposite behavior occurs. Thus, it is not necessarily the case that privacy must be sacrificed to achieve robustness. The degree of overfitting naturally depends on the amount of data available for training. We go on to formally characterize how the training set size factors into the privacy risks exposed by training a robust model. Finally, we empirically show our findings hold on image classification benchmark datasets, such as CIFAR-10.

We propose to address the task of causal structure learning from data in a supervised manner. Existing work on learning causal directions by supervised learning is restricted to learning pairwise relation, and not well suited for whole DAG discovery. We propose a novel approach of modeling the whole DAG structure discovery as a supervised learning. To fit the problem in hand, we propose to use permutation equivariant models that align well with the problem domain. We evaluate the proposed approach extensively on synthetic graphs of size 10,20,50,100 and real data, and show promising results compared with a variety of previous approaches.

The objective of this work is to augment the basic abilities of a robot by learning to use new sensorimotor primitives to solve complex long-horizon manipulation problems. This requires flexible generative planning that can combine primitive abilities in novel combinations and thus generalize across a wide variety of problems. In order to plan with primitive actions, we must have models of the preconditions and effects of those actions: under what circumstances will executing this primitive successfully achieve some particular effect in the world? We use, and develop novel improvements on, state-of-the-art methods for active learning and sampling. We use Gaussian process methods for learning the conditions of operator effectiveness from small numbers of expensive training examples. We develop adaptive sampling methods for generating a comprehensive and diverse sequence of continuous parameter values (such as pouring waypoints for a cup) configurations and during planning for solving a new task, so that a complete robot plan can be found as efficiently as possible. We demonstrate our approach in an integrated system, combining traditional robotics primitives with our newly learned models using an efficient robot task and motion planner. We evaluate our approach both in simulation and in the real world through measuring the quality of the selected pours and scoops. Finally, we apply our integrated system to a variety of long-horizon simulated and real-world manipulation problems.

We detect out-of-training-distribution sentences in Neural Machine Translation using the Bayesian Deep Learning equivalent of Transformer models. For this we develop a new measure of uncertainty designed specifically for long sequences of discrete random variables -- i.e. words in the output sentence. Our new measure of uncertainty solves a major intractability in the naive application of existing approaches on long sentences. We use our new measure on a Transformer model trained with dropout approximate inference. On the task of German-English translation using WMT13 and Europarl, we show that with dropout uncertainty our measure is able to identify when Dutch source sentences, sentences which use the same word types as German, are given to the model instead of German.

Data preprocessing is an important component of machine learning pipelines, which requires ample time and resources. An integral part of preprocessing is data transformation into the format required by a given learning algorithm. This paper outlines some of the modern data processing techniques used in relational learning that enable data fusion from different input data types and formats into a single table data representation, focusing on the propositionalization and embedding data transformation approaches. While both approaches aim at transforming data into tabular data format, they use different terminology and task definitions, are perceived to address different goals, and are used in different contexts. This paper contributes a unifying framework that allows for improved understanding of these two data transformation techniques by presenting their unified definitions, and by explaining the similarities and differences between the two approaches as variants of a unified complex data transformation task. In addition to the unifying framework, the novelty of this paper is a unifying methodology combining propositionalization and embeddings, which benefits from the advantages of both in solving complex data transformation and learning tasks. We present two efficient implementations of the unifying methodology: an instance-based PropDRM approach, and a feature-based PropStar approach to data transformation and learning, together with their empirical evaluation on several relational problems. The results show that the new algorithms can outperform existing relational learners and can solve much larger problems.

This paper tries to present a more unified view of clustering, by identifying the relationships between five different clustering algorithms. Some of the results are not new, but they are presented in a cleaner, simpler and more concise way. To the best of my knowledge, the interpretation of DBSCAN as a climbing procedure, which introduces a theoretical connection between DBSCAN and Mean shift, is a novel result.

In this paper, we employ variational arguments to establish a connection between ensemble methods for Neural Networks and Bayesian inference. We consider an ensemble-based scheme where each model/particle corresponds to a perturbation of the data by means of parametric bootstrap and a perturbation of the prior. We derive conditions under which any optimization steps of the particles makes the associated distribution reduce its divergence to the posterior over model parameters. Such conditions do not require any particular form for the approximation and they are purely geometrical, giving insights on the behavior of the ensemble on a number of interesting models such as Neural Networks with ReLU activations. Experiments confirm that ensemble methods can be a valid alternative to approximate Bayesian inference; the theoretical developments in the paper seek to explain this behavior.

Reliable yet efficient evaluation of generalisation performance of a proposed architecture is crucial to the success of neural architecture search (NAS). Traditional approaches face a variety of limitations: training each architecture to completion is prohibitively expensive, early stopping estimates may correlate poorly with fully trained performance, and model-based estimators require large training sets. Instead, motivated by recent results linking training speed and generalisation with stochastic gradient descent, we propose to estimate the final test performance based on the sum of training losses. Our estimator is inspired by the marginal likelihood, which is used for Bayesian model selection. Our model-free estimator is simple, efficient, and cheap to implement, and does not require hyperparameter-tuning or surrogate training before deployment. We demonstrate empirically that our estimator consistently outperforms other baselines and can achieve a rank correlation of 0.95 with final test accuracy on the NAS-Bench201 dataset within 50 epochs.

Chengrun Yang, Jicong Fan, Ziyang Wu, and Madeleine Udell This is an extended version of AutoML Pipeline Selection: Efficiently Navigating the Combinatorial Space (DOI: 10.1145/3394486.3403197) at the 26th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, 2020. Abstract--Data scientists seeking a good supervised learning model on a new dataset have many choices to make: they must preprocess the data, select features, possibly reduce the dimension, select an estimation algorithm, and choose hyperparameters for each of these pipeline components. With new pipeline components comes a combinatorial explosion in the number of choices! In this work, we design a new AutoML system to address this challenge: an automated system to design a supervised learning pipeline. Our system uses matrix and tensor factorization as surrogate models to model the combinatorial pipeline search space.