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 Bayesian Learning


Toward Theory of Applied Learning. What is Machine Learning?

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Various existing approaches to formalize machine learning (ML) problem are discussed. The concept of Intelligent Learning (IL) as a context of ML is introduced. IL is described following traditions of Hegel's logic. A general formalization of classification as Optimal Class Separation problem is proposed. The formalization includes two criteria, direct and proximity loss, introduced here. It is demonstrated that $k$-NN, Naive Bayes, decision trees, linear SVM solve Optimal Class Separation problem.


A Bayesian incorporated linear non-Gaussian acyclic model for multiple directed graph estimation to study brain emotion circuit development in adolescence

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Emotion perception is essential to affective and cognitive development which involves distributed brain circuits. The ability of emotion identification begins in infancy and continues to develop throughout childhood and adolescence. Understanding the development of brain's emotion circuitry may help us explain the emotional changes observed during adolescence. Our previous study delineated the trajectory of brain functional connectivity (FC) from late childhood to early adulthood during emotion identification tasks. In this work, we endeavour to deepen our understanding from association to causation. We proposed a Bayesian incorporated linear non-Gaussian acyclic model (BiLiNGAM), which incorporated our previous association model into the prior estimation pipeline. In particular, it can jointly estimate multiple directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) for multiple age groups at different developmental stages. Simulation results indicated more stable and accurate performance over various settings, especially when the sample size was small (high-dimensional cases). We then applied to the analysis of real data from the Philadelphia Neurodevelopmental Cohort (PNC). This included 855 individuals aged 8-22 years who were divided into five different adolescent stages. Our network analysis revealed the development of emotion-related intra- and inter- modular connectivity and pinpointed several emotion-related hubs. We further categorized the hubs into two types: in-hubs and out-hubs, as the center of receiving and distributing information. Several unique developmental hub structures and group-specific patterns were also discovered. Our findings help provide a causal understanding of emotion development in the human brain.


Causal inference of brain connectivity from fMRI with $\psi$-Learning Incorporated Linear non-Gaussian Acyclic Model ($\psi$-LiNGAM)

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Functional connectivity (FC) has become a primary means of understanding brain functions by identifying brain network interactions and, ultimately, how those interactions produce cognitions. A popular definition of FC is by statistical associations between measured brain regions. However, this could be problematic since the associations can only provide spatial connections but not causal interactions among regions of interests. Hence, it is necessary to study their causal relationship. Directed acyclic graph (DAG) models have been applied in recent FC studies but often encountered problems such as limited sample sizes and large number of variables (namely high-dimensional problems), which lead to both computational difficulty and convergence issues. As a result, the use of DAG models is problematic, where the identification of DAG models in general is nondeterministic polynomial time hard (NP-hard). To this end, we propose a $\psi$-learning incorporated linear non-Gaussian acyclic model ($\psi$-LiNGAM). We use the association model ($\psi$-learning) to facilitate causal inferences and the model works well especially for high-dimensional cases. Our simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method is more robust and accurate than several existing ones in detecting graph structure and direction. We then applied it to the resting state fMRI (rsfMRI) data obtained from the publicly available Philadelphia Neurodevelopmental Cohort (PNC) to study the cognitive variance, which includes 855 individuals aged 8-22 years. Therein, we have identified three types of hub structure: the in-hub, out-hub and sum-hub, which correspond to the centers of receiving, sending and relaying information, respectively. We also detected 16 most important pairs of causal flows. Several of the results have been verified to be biologically significant.


A One-Pass Private Sketch for Most Machine Learning Tasks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Differential privacy (DP) is a compelling privacy definition that explains the privacy-utility tradeoff via formal, provable guarantees. Inspired by recent progress toward general-purpose data release algorithms, we propose a private sketch, or small summary of the dataset, that supports a multitude of machine learning tasks including regression, classification, density estimation, near-neighbor search, and more. Our sketch consists of randomized contingency tables that are indexed with locality-sensitive hashing and constructed with an efficient one-pass algorithm. We prove competitive error bounds for DP kernel density estimation. Existing methods for DP kernel density estimation scale poorly, often exponentially slower with an increase in dimensions. In contrast, our sketch can quickly run on large, high-dimensional datasets in a single pass. Exhaustive experiments show that our generic sketch delivers a similar privacy-utility tradeoff when compared to existing DP methods at a fraction of the computation cost. We expect that our sketch will enable differential privacy in distributed, large-scale machine learning settings.


A Survey of Constrained Gaussian Process Regression: Approaches and Implementation Challenges

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Gaussian process regression is a popular Bayesian framework for surrogate modeling of expensive data sources. As part of a broader effort in scientific machine learning, many recent works have incorporated physical constraints or other a priori information within Gaussian process regression to supplement limited data and regularize the behavior of the model. We provide an overview and survey of several classes of Gaussian process constraints, including positivity or bound constraints, monotonicity and convexity constraints, differential equation constraints provided by linear PDEs, and boundary condition constraints. We compare the strategies behind each approach as well as the differences in implementation, concluding with a discussion of the computational challenges introduced by constraints.


Discovering outstanding subgroup lists for numeric targets using MDL

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The task of subgroup discovery (SD) is to find interpretable descriptions of subsets of a dataset that stand out with respect to a target attribute. To address the problem of mining large numbers of redundant subgroups, subgroup set discovery (SSD) has been proposed. State-of-the-art SSD methods have their limitations though, as they typically heavily rely on heuristics and/or user-chosen hyperparameters. We propose a dispersion-aware problem formulation for subgroup set discovery that is based on the minimum description length (MDL) principle and subgroup lists. We argue that the best subgroup list is the one that best summarizes the data given the overall distribution of the target. We restrict our focus to a single numeric target variable and show that our formalization coincides with an existing quality measure when finding a single subgroup, but that-in addition-it allows to trade off subgroup quality with the complexity of the subgroup. We next propose SSD++, a heuristic algorithm for which we empirically demonstrate that it returns outstanding subgroup lists: non-redundant sets of compact subgroups that stand out by having strongly deviating means and small spread.


Deterministic Inference of Neural Stochastic Differential Equations

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Model noise is known to have detrimental effects on neural networks, such as training instability and predictive distributions with non-calibrated uncertainty properties. These factors set bottlenecks on the expressive potential of Neural Stochastic Differential Equations (NSDEs), a model family that employs neural nets on both drift and diffusion functions. We introduce a novel algorithm that solves a generic NSDE using only deterministic approximation methods. Given a discretization, we estimate the marginal distribution of the It\^{o} process implied by the NSDE using a recursive scheme to propagate deterministic approximations of the statistical moments across time steps. The proposed algorithm comes with theoretical guarantees on numerical stability and convergence to the true solution, enabling its computational use for robust, accurate, and efficient prediction of long sequences. We observe our novel algorithm to behave interpretably on synthetic setups and to improve the state of the art on two challenging real-world tasks.


Calibrating Deep Neural Network Classifiers on Out-of-Distribution Datasets

arXiv.org Machine Learning

To increase the trustworthiness of deep neural network (DNN) classifiers, an accurate prediction confidence that represents the true likelihood of correctness is crucial. Towards this end, many post-hoc calibration methods have been proposed to leverage a lightweight model to map the target DNN's output layer into a calibrated confidence. Nonetheless, on an out-of-distribution (OOD) dataset in practice, the target DNN can often mis-classify samples with a high confidence, creating significant challenges for the existing calibration methods to produce an accurate confidence. In this paper, we propose a new post-hoc confidence calibration method, called CCAC (Confidence Calibration with an Auxiliary Class), for DNN classifiers on OOD datasets. The key novelty of CCAC is an auxiliary class in the calibration model which separates mis-classified samples from correctly classified ones, thus effectively mitigating the target DNN's being confidently wrong. We also propose a simplified version of CCAC to reduce free parameters and facilitate transfer to a new unseen dataset. Our experiments on different DNN models, datasets and applications show that CCAC can consistently outperform the prior post-hoc calibration methods.


Image Restoration from Parametric Transformations using Generative Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

When images are statistically described by a generative model we can use this information to develop optimum techniques for various image restoration problems as inpainting, super-resolution, image coloring, generative model inversion, etc. With the help of the generative model it is possible to formulate, in a natural way, these restoration problems as Statistical estimation problems. Our approach, by combining maximum a-posteriori probability with maximum likelihood estimation, is capable of restoring images that are distorted by transformations even when the latter contain unknown parameters. The resulting optimization is completely defined with no parameters requiring tuning. This must be compared with the current state of the art which requires exact knowledge of the transformations and contains regularizer terms with weights that must be properly defined. Finally, we must mention that we extend our method to accommodate mixtures of multiple images where each image is described by its own generative model and we are able of successfully separating each participating image from a single mixture.


Algorithmic recourse under imperfect causal knowledge: a probabilistic approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent work has discussed the limitations of counterfactual explanations to recommend actions for algorithmic recourse, and argued for the need of taking causal relationships between features into consideration. Unfortunately, in practice, the true underlying structural causal model is generally unknown. In this work, we first show that it is impossible to guarantee recourse without access to the true structural equations. To address this limitation, we propose two probabilistic approaches to select optimal actions that achieve recourse with high probability given limited causal knowledge (e.g., only the causal graph). The first captures uncertainty over structural equations under additive Gaussian noise, and uses Bayesian model averaging to estimate the counterfactual distribution. The second removes any assumptions on the structural equations by instead computing the average effect of recourse actions on individuals similar to the person who seeks recourse, leading to a novel subpopulation-based interventional notion of recourse. We then derive a gradient-based procedure for selecting optimal recourse actions, and empirically show that the proposed approaches lead to more reliable recommendations under imperfect causal knowledge than non-probabilistic baselines.