Auto-regressive sequence generative models trained by Maximum Likelihood Estimation suffer the exposure bias problem in practical finite sample scenarios. The crux is that the number of training samples for Maximum Likelihood Estimation is usually limited and the input data distributions are different at training and inference stages. Many method shave been proposed to solve the above problem (Yu et al., 2017; Lu et al., 2018), which relies on sampling from the non-stationary model distribution and suffers from high variance or biased estimations. In this paper, we propose{\psi}-MLE, a new training scheme for auto-regressive sequence generative models, which is effective and stable when operating at large sample space encountered in text generation. We derive our algorithm from a new perspective of self-augmentation and introduce bias correction with density ratio estimation. Extensive experimental results on synthetic data and real-world text generation tasks demonstrate that our method stably outperforms Maximum Likelihood Estimation and other state-of-the-art sequence generative models in terms of both quality and diversity.

We propose a method to fuse posterior distributions learned from heterogeneous datasets. Our algorithm relies on a mean field assumption for both the fused model and the individual dataset posteriors and proceeds using a simple assign-and-average approach. The components of the dataset posteriors are assigned to the proposed global model components by solving a regularized variant of the assignment problem. The global components are then updated based on these assignments by their mean under a KL divergence. For exponential family variational distributions, our formulation leads to an efficient non-parametric algorithm for computing the fused model. Our algorithm is easy to describe and implement, efficient, and competitive with state-of-the-art on motion capture analysis, topic modeling, and federated learning of Bayesian neural networks.

Traditional training of deep classifiers yields overconfident models that are not reliable under dataset shift. We propose a Bayesian framework to obtain reliable uncertainty estimates for deep classifiers. Our approach consists of a plug-in "generator" used to augment the data with an additional class of points that lie on the boundary of the training data, followed by Bayesian inference on top of features that are trained to distinguish these "out-of-distribution" points.

Surprisingly, they outperform Bayesian Networks, which are - in theory - doing the same thing. This paper investigates how Deep Ensembles are especially suited to capturing the non-convex loss landscape of neural networks.

Autonomous and semi-autonomous systems for safety-critical applications require rigorous testing before deployment. Due to the complexity of these systems, formal verification may be impossible and real-world testing may be dangerous during development. Therefore, simulation-based techniques have been developed that treat the system under test as a black box during testing. Safety validation tasks include finding disturbances to the system that cause it to fail (falsification), finding the most-likely failure, and estimating the probability that the system fails. Motivated by the prevalence of safety-critical artificial intelligence, this work provides a survey of state-of-the-art safety validation techniques with a focus on applied algorithms and their modifications for the safety validation problem. We present and discuss algorithms in the domains of optimization, path planning, reinforcement learning, and importance sampling. Problem decomposition techniques are presented to help scale algorithms to large state spaces, and a brief overview of safety-critical applications is given, including autonomous vehicles and aircraft collision avoidance systems. Finally, we present a survey of existing academic and commercially available safety validation tools.

Decision Trees (DTs) and Random Forests (RFs) are powerful discriminative learners and tools of central importance to the everyday machine learning practitioner and data scientist. Due to their discriminative nature, however, they lack principled methods to process inputs with missing features or to detect outliers, which requires pairing them with imputation techniques or a separate generative model. In this paper, we demonstrate that DTs and RFs can naturally be interpreted as generative models, by drawing a connection to Probabilistic Circuits, a prominent class of tractable probabilistic models. This reinterpretation equips them with a full joint distribution over the feature space and leads to Generative Decision Trees (GeDTs) and Generative Forests (GeFs), a family of novel hybrid generative-discriminative models. This family of models retains the overall characteristics of DTs and RFs while additionally being able to handle missing features by means of marginalisation. Under certain assumptions, frequently made for Bayes consistency results, we show that consistency in GeDTs and GeFs extend to any pattern of missing input features, if missing at random. Empirically, we show that our models often outperform common routines to treat missing data, such as K-nearest neighbour imputation, and moreover, that our models can naturally detect outliers by monitoring the marginal probability of input features.

Normalising flows are tractable probabilistic models that leverage the power of deep learning to describe a wide parametric family of distributions, all while remaining trainable using maximum likelihood. We discuss how these methods can be further improved based on insights from robust (in particular, resistant) statistics. Specifically, we propose to endow flow-based models with fat-tailed latent distributions such as multivariate Student's $t$, as a simple drop-in replacement for the Gaussian distribution used by conventional normalising flows. While robustness brings many advantages, this paper explores two of them: 1) We describe how using fatter-tailed base distributions can give benefits similar to gradient clipping, but without compromising the asymptotic consistency of the method. 2) We also discuss how robust ideas lead to models with reduced generalisation gap and improved held-out data likelihood. Experiments on several different datasets confirm the efficacy of the proposed approach in both regards.

This paper serves as an introduction and overview of the potentially useful models and methodologies from artificial intelligence (AI) into the field of transportation engineering for autonomous vehicle (AV) control in the era of mixed autonomy. We will discuss state-of-the-art applications of AI-guided methods, identify opportunities and obstacles, raise open questions, and help suggest the building blocks and areas where AI could play a role in mixed autonomy. We divide the stage of autonomous vehicle (AV) deployment into four phases: the pure HVs, the HV-dominated, the AVdominated, and the pure AVs. This paper is primarily focused on the latter three phases. It is the first-of-its-kind survey paper to comprehensively review literature in both transportation engineering and AI for mixed traffic modeling. Models used for each phase are summarized, encompassing game theory, deep (reinforcement) learning, and imitation learning. While reviewing the methodologies, we primarily focus on the following research questions: (1) What scalable driving policies are to control a large number of AVs in mixed traffic comprised of human drivers and uncontrollable AVs? (2) How do we estimate human driver behaviors? (3) How should the driving behavior of uncontrollable AVs be modeled in the environment? (4) How are the interactions between human drivers and autonomous vehicles characterized? Hopefully this paper will not only inspire our transportation community to rethink the conventional models that are developed in the data-shortage era, but also reach out to other disciplines, in particular robotics and machine learning, to join forces towards creating a safe and efficient mixed traffic ecosystem.

The maximum entropy principle advocates to evaluate events' probabilities using a distribution that maximizes entropy among those that satisfy certain expectations' constraints. Such principle can be generalized for arbitrary decision problems where it corresponds to minimax approaches. This paper establishes a framework for supervised classification based on the generalized maximum entropy principle that leads to minimax risk classifiers (MRCs). We develop learning techniques that determine MRCs for general entropy functions and provide performance guarantees by means of convex optimization. In addition, we describe the relationship of the presented techniques with existing classification methods, and quantify MRCs performance in comparison with the proposed bounds and conventional methods.

Continuously-indexed flows (CIFs) have recently achieved improvements over baseline normalizing flows in a variety of density estimation tasks. In this paper, we adapt CIFs to the task of variational inference (VI) through the framework of auxiliary VI, and demonstrate that the advantages of CIFs over baseline flows can also translate to the VI setting for both sampling from posteriors with complicated topology and performing maximum likelihood estimation in latent-variable models.