This paper applies probabilistic model checking techniques for discrete Markov chains to inference in Bayesian networks. We present a simple translation from Bayesian networks into tree-like Markov chains such that inference can be reduced to computing reachability probabilities. Using a prototypical implementation on top of the Storm model checker, we show that symbolic data structures such as multi-terminal BDDs (MTBDDs) are very effective to perform inference on large Bayesian network benchmarks. We compare our result to inference using probabilistic sentential decision diagrams and vtrees, a scalable symbolic technique in AI inference tools.

We present a system that uses a learned autocompletion mechanism to facilitate rapid creation of semi-structured clinical documentation. We dynamically suggest relevant clinical concepts as a doctor drafts a note by leveraging features from both unstructured and structured medical data. By constraining our architecture to shallow neural networks, we are able to make these suggestions in real time. Furthermore, as our algorithm is used to write a note, we can automatically annotate the documentation with clean labels of clinical concepts drawn from medical vocabularies, making notes more structured and readable for physicians, patients, and future algorithms. To our knowledge, this system is the only machine learning-based documentation utility for clinical notes deployed in a live hospital setting, and it reduces keystroke burden of clinical concepts by 67% in real environments.

SARS-CoV2, which causes coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is continuing to spread globally and has become a pandemic. People have lost their lives due to the virus and the lack of counter measures in place. Given the increasing caseload and uncertainty of spread, there is an urgent need to develop machine learning techniques to predict the spread of COVID-19. Prediction of the spread can allow counter measures and actions to be implemented to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. In this paper, we propose a deep learning technique, called Deep Sequential Prediction Model (DSPM) and machine learning based Non-parametric Regression Model (NRM) to predict the spread of COVID-19. Our proposed models were trained and tested on novel coronavirus 2019 dataset, which contains 19.53 Million confirmed cases of COVID-19. Our proposed models were evaluated by using Mean Absolute Error and compared with baseline method. Our experimental results, both quantitative and qualitative, demonstrate the superior prediction performance of the proposed models.

We consider stochastic systems of interacting particles or agents, with dynamics determined by an interaction kernel which only depends on pairwise distances. We study the problem of inferring this interaction kernel from observations of the positions of the particles, in either continuous or discrete time, along multiple independent trajectories. We introduce a nonparametric inference approach to this inverse problem, based on a regularized maximum likelihood estimator constrained to suitable hypothesis spaces adaptive to data. We show that a coercivity condition enables us to control the condition number of this problem and prove the consistency of our estimator, and that in fact it converges at a near-optimal learning rate, equal to the min-max rate of $1$-dimensional non-parametric regression. In particular, this rate is independent of the dimension of the state space, which is typically very high. We also analyze the discretization errors in the case of discrete-time observations, showing that it is of order $1/2$ in terms of the time gaps between observations. This term, when large, dominates the sampling error and the approximation error, preventing convergence of the estimator. Finally, we exhibit an efficient parallel algorithm to construct the estimator from data, and we demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm with numerical tests on prototype systems including stochastic opinion dynamics and a Lennard-Jones model.

Credit card fraud is an ongoing problem for almost all industries in the world, and it raises millions of dollars to the global economy each year. Therefore, there is a number of research either completed or proceeding in order to detect these kinds of frauds in the industry. These researches generally use rule-based or novel artificial intelligence approaches to find eligible solutions. The ultimate goal of this paper is to summarize state-of-the-art approaches to fraud detection using artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques. While summarizing, we will categorize the common problems such as imbalanced dataset, real time working scenarios, and feature engineering challenges that almost all research works encounter, and identify general approaches to solve them. The imbalanced dataset problem occurs because the number of legitimate transactions is much higher than the fraudulent ones whereas applying the right feature engineering is substantial as the features obtained from the industries are limited, and applying feature engineering methods and reforming the dataset is crucial. Also, adapting the detection system to real time scenarios is a challenge since the number of credit card transactions in a limited time period is very high. In addition, we will discuss how evaluation metrics and machine learning methods differentiate among each research. NTRODUCTION The number of cashless transactions is at its peak point since the beginning of the digital era and it is most likely to increase in the future.

The aim of improvements in data driven exercises in insurance has led to the desire to gather additional data than traditionally available. In addition to underwriting characteristics such as age, gender and address, technology now allows the collection of many more variables. Examples include dynamic data from sensors for driving behaviour in vehicles, appliance and electrical usage in homes and static data from external databases on traffic violations, crime scores or credit scores. High dimensional models arise if modelling sensor data at multiple time points and the individual variables that comprise summary scores. Reasoning with a large number of variables can become unnecessarily complex without any actuarial judgment. For example, it may not be necessary to include hundreds of rating factors as predictors if many of them are known to be related or unnecessary. This discussion proposes the use of graph theory as a means of translating intuitive reasoning to mathematical properties. This is done via graphical models, which involve the use of graph theory to formulate probabilistic models (Lauritzen, 1996). The approach has been used in applications such as medical expert systems (Franklin et al., 1989), natural language processing (Blei et al., 2003), image processing, bioinformatics and others (Wainwright and Jordan, 2008).

The implementation of robust, stable, and user-centered data analytics and machine learning models is confronted by numerous challenges in production and manufacturing. Therefore, a systematic approach is required to develop, evaluate, and deploy such models. The data-driven knowledge discovery framework provides an orderly partition of the data-mining processes to ensure the practical implementation of data analytics and machine learning models. However, the practical application of robust industry-specific data-driven knowledge discovery models faces multiple data-- and model-development--related issues. These issues should be carefully addressed by allowing a flexible, customized, and industry-specific knowledge discovery framework; in our case, this takes the form of the cross-industry standard process for data mining (CRISP-DM). This framework is designed to ensure active cooperation between different phases to adequately address data- and model-related issues. In this paper, we review several extensions of CRISP-DM models and various data-robustness-- and model-robustness--related problems in machine learning, which currently lacks proper cooperation between data experts and business experts because of the limitations of data-driven knowledge discovery models.

In multimedia forensics, learning-based methods provide state-of-the-art performance in determining origin and authenticity of images and videos. However, most existing methods are challenged by out-of-distribution data, i.e., with characteristics that are not covered in the training set. This makes it difficult to know when to trust a model, particularly for practitioners with limited technical background. In this work, we make a first step toward redesigning forensic algorithms with a strong focus on reliability. To this end, we propose to use Bayesian neural networks (BNN), which combine the power of deep neural networks with the rigorous probabilistic formulation of a Bayesian framework. Instead of providing a point estimate like standard neural networks, BNNs provide distributions that express both the estimate and also an uncertainty range. We demonstrate the usefulness of this framework on a classical forensic task: resampling detection. The BNN yields state-of-the-art detection performance, plus excellent capabilities for detecting out-of-distribution samples. This is demonstrated for three pathologic issues in resampling detection, namely unseen resampling factors, unseen JPEG compression, and unseen resampling algorithms. We hope that this proposal spurs further research toward reliability in multimedia forensics.

The goal of neural-symbolic computation is to integrate the connectionist and symbolist paradigms. Prior methods learn the neural-symbolic models using reinforcement learning (RL) approaches, which ignore the error propagation in the symbolic reasoning module and thus converge slowly with sparse rewards. In this paper, we address these issues and close the loop of neural-symbolic learning by (1) introducing the \textbf{grammar} model as a \textit{symbolic prior} to bridge neural perception and symbolic reasoning, and (2) proposing a novel \textbf{back-search} algorithm which mimics the top-down human-like learning procedure to propagate the error through the symbolic reasoning module efficiently. We further interpret the proposed learning framework as maximum likelihood estimation using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling and the back-search algorithm as a Metropolis-Hastings sampler. The experiments are conducted on two weakly-supervised neural-symbolic tasks: (1) handwritten formula recognition on the newly introduced HWF dataset; (2) visual question answering on the CLEVR dataset. The results show that our approach significantly outperforms the RL methods in terms of performance, converging speed, and data efficiency. Our code and data are released at \url{https://liqing-ustc.github.io/NGS}.

One of the primary goals of systems neuroscience is to relate the structure of neural circuits to their function, yet patterns of connectivity are difficult to establish when recording from large populations in behaving organisms. Many previous approaches have attempted to estimate functional connectivity between neurons using statistical modeling of observational data, but these approaches rely heavily on parametric assumptions and are purely correlational. Recently, however, holographic photostimulation techniques have made it possible to precisely target selected ensembles of neurons, offering the possibility of establishing direct causal links. A naive method for inferring functional connections is to stimulate each individual neuron multiple times and observe the responses of cells in the local network, but this approach scales poorly with the number of neurons. Here, we propose a method based on noisy group testing that drastically increases the efficiency of this process in sparse networks. By stimulating small ensembles of neurons, we show that it is possible to recover binarized network connectivity with a number of tests that grows only logarithmically with population size under minimal statistical assumptions. Moreover, we prove that our approach, which reduces to an efficiently solvable convex optimization problem, is equivalent to Variational Bayesian inference on the binary connection weights, and we derive rigorous bounds on the posterior marginals. This allows us to extend our method to the streaming setting, where continuously updated posteriors allow for optional stopping, and we demonstrate the feasibility of inferring connectivity for networks of up to tens of thousands of neurons online.