Understanding data and reaching valid conclusions are of paramount importance in the present era of big data. Machine learning and probability theory methods have widespread application for this purpose in different fields. One critically important yet less explored aspect is how data and model uncertainties are captured and analyzed. Proper quantification of uncertainty provides valuable information for optimal decision making. This paper reviewed related studies conducted in the last 30 years (from 1991 to 2020) in handling uncertainties in medical data using probability theory and machine learning techniques. Medical data is more prone to uncertainty due to the presence of noise in the data. So, it is very important to have clean medical data without any noise to get accurate diagnosis. The sources of noise in the medical data need to be known to address this issue. Based on the medical data obtained by the physician, diagnosis of disease, and treatment plan are prescribed. Hence, the uncertainty is growing in healthcare and there is limited knowledge to address these problems. We have little knowledge about the optimal treatment methods as there are many sources of uncertainty in medical science. Our findings indicate that there are few challenges to be addressed in handling the uncertainty in medical raw data and new models. In this work, we have summarized various methods employed to overcome this problem. Nowadays, application of novel deep learning techniques to deal such uncertainties have significantly increased.

This paper presents a cognitive behavioral-based driver mood repairment platform in intelligent transportation cyber-physical systems (IT-CPS) for road safety. In particular, we propose a driving safety platform for distracted drivers, namely \emph{drive safe}, in IT-CPS. The proposed platform recognizes the distracting activities of the drivers as well as their emotions for mood repair. Further, we develop a prototype of the proposed drive safe platform to establish proof-of-concept (PoC) for the road safety in IT-CPS. In the developed driving safety platform, we employ five AI and statistical-based models to infer a vehicle driver's cognitive-behavioral mining to ensure safe driving during the drive. Especially, capsule network (CN), maximum likelihood (ML), convolutional neural network (CNN), Apriori algorithm, and Bayesian network (BN) are deployed for driver activity recognition, environmental feature extraction, mood recognition, sequential pattern mining, and content recommendation for affective mood repairment of the driver, respectively. Besides, we develop a communication module to interact with the systems in IT-CPS asynchronously. Thus, the developed drive safe PoC can guide the vehicle drivers when they are distracted from driving due to the cognitive-behavioral factors. Finally, we have performed a qualitative evaluation to measure the usability and effectiveness of the developed drive safe platform. We observe that the P-value is 0.0041 (i.e., < 0.05) in the ANOVA test. Moreover, the confidence interval analysis also shows significant gains in prevalence value which is around 0.93 for a 95% confidence level. The aforementioned statistical results indicate high reliability in terms of driver's safety and mental state.

A beginners guide to learn Machine Learning including Hands on from scratch.

In stochastic systems, informative approaches select key measurement or decision variables that maximize information gain to enhance the efficacy of model-related inferences. Neural Learning also embodies stochastic dynamics, but informative Learning is less developed. Here, we propose Informative Ensemble Kalman Learning, which replaces backpropagation with an adaptive Ensemble Kalman Filter to quantify uncertainty and enables maximizing information gain during Learning. After demonstrating Ensemble Kalman Learning's competitive performance on standard datasets, we apply the informative approach to neural structure learning. In particular, we show that when trained from the Lorenz-63 system's simulations, the efficaciously learned structure recovers the dynamical equations. To the best of our knowledge, Informative Ensemble Kalman Learning is new. Results suggest that this approach to optimized Learning is promising.

Competences have grown in popularity in the western educational world [1, 2, 3], and so the interest on developing computational models for competences that can be used to support a variety of educational processes, from creating digital catalogues of competences to course design to monitoring competence development by students. Although meaning varies among organisations, in this paper we will assume a definition of competence along the line of'the capability of someone to act effectively in some kind of situations, which demands the mobilization of a variety of internal and external resources' which broadly integrates aspects of external performance and internal composition of competences that emerge in the literature. Research in this area is important because little information is available regarding what competences the students have developed along their studies, and to what extend, beyond the stated learning objectives of the educational programmes they are subscribed in, and the titles of the courses they have taken and passed. Furthermore, information regarding the development of competences do not accumulate, neither at school nor later in life. For example, transversal competences are develop along many courses on specific contexts (e.g.

Learning the structure of Bayesian networks is a difficult combinatorial optimization problem. In this paper, we consider learning of tree-augmented naive Bayes (TAN) structures for Bayesian network classifiers with discrete input features. Instead of performing a combinatorial optimization over the space of possible graph structures, the proposed method learns a distribution over graph structures. After training, we select the most probable structure of this distribution. This allows for a joint training of the Bayesian network parameters along with its TAN structure using gradient-based optimization. The proposed method is agnostic to the specific loss and only requires that it is differentiable. We perform extensive experiments using a hybrid generative-discriminative loss based on the discriminative probabilistic margin. Our method consistently outperforms random TAN structures and Chow-Liu TAN structures.

Causal models can compactly and efficiently encode the data-generating process under all interventions and hence may generalize better under changes in distribution. These models are often represented as Bayesian networks and learning them scales poorly with the number of variables. Moreover, these approaches cannot leverage previously learned knowledge to help with learning new causal models. In order to tackle these challenges, we represent a novel algorithm called \textit{causal relational networks} (CRN) for learning causal models using neural networks. The CRN represent causal models using continuous representations and hence could scale much better with the number of variables. These models also take in previously learned information to facilitate learning of new causal models. Finally, we propose a decoding-based metric to evaluate causal models with continuous representations. We test our method on synthetic data achieving high accuracy and quick adaptation to previously unseen causal models.

Substantial advances in Bayesian methods for causal inference have been developed in recent years. We provide an introduction to Bayesian inference for causal effects for practicing statisticians who have some familiarity with Bayesian models and would like an overview of what it can add to causal estimation in practical settings. In the paper, we demonstrate how priors can induce shrinkage and sparsity on parametric models and be used to perform probabilistic sensitivity analyses around causal assumptions. We provide an overview of nonparametric Bayesian estimation and survey their applications in the causal inference literature. Inference in the point-treatment and time-varying treatment settings are considered. For the latter, we explore both static and dynamic treatment regimes. Throughout, we illustrate implementation using off-the-shelf open source software. We hope the reader will walk away with implementation-level knowledge of Bayesian causal inference using both parametric and nonparametric models. All synthetic examples and code used in the paper are publicly available on a companion GitHub repository.

Most recommendation engines today are based on predicting user engagement, e.g. predicting whether a user will click on an item or not. However, there is potentially a large gap between engagement signals and a desired notion of "value" that is worth optimizing for. We use the framework of measurement theory to (a) confront the designer with a normative question about what the designer values, (b) provide a general latent variable model approach that can be used to operationalize the target construct and directly optimize for it, and (c) guide the designer in evaluating and revising their operationalization. We implement our approach on the Twitter platform on millions of users. In line with established approaches to assessing the validity of measurements, we perform a qualitative evaluation of how well our model captures a desired notion of "value".

Modelling for the pandemic has shown that this debate should still be front and center. The frequentists are mostly in the spotlight advising world leaders. If you listen close you will hear a common refrain'we just need more data.' This is, of course, the age-old problem of statistical significance. However, today, we aren't in a harmless lab study, these data are only realized through death.