We present two methods to reduce the complexity of Bayesian network (BN) classifiers. First, we introduce quantization-aware training using the straight-through gradient estimator to quantize the parameters of BNs to few bits. Second, we extend a recently proposed differentiable tree-augmented naive Bayes (TAN) structure learning approach by also considering the model size. Both methods are motivated by recent developments in the deep learning community, and they provide effective means to trade off between model size and prediction accuracy, which is demonstrated in extensive experiments. Furthermore, we contrast quantized BN classifiers with quantized deep neural networks (DNNs) for small-scale scenarios which have hardly been investigated in the literature. We show Pareto optimal models with respect to model size, number of operations, and test error and find that both model classes are viable options.

Discrete latent spaces in variational autoencoders have been shown to effectively capture the data distribution for many real-world problems such as natural language understanding, human intent prediction, and visual scene representation. However, discrete latent spaces need to be sufficiently large to capture the complexities of real-world data, rendering downstream tasks computationally challenging. For instance, performing motion planning in a high-dimensional latent representation of the environment could be intractable. We consider the problem of sparsifying the discrete latent space of a trained conditional variational autoencoder, while preserving its learned multimodality. As a post hoc latent space reduction technique, we use evidential theory to identify the latent classes that receive direct evidence from a particular input condition and filter out those that do not. Experiments on diverse tasks, such as image generation and human behavior prediction, demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed technique at reducing the discrete latent sample space size of a model while maintaining its learned multimodality.

A support vector machine (SVM) is a supervised machine learning model that uses classification algorithms for two-group classification problems. After giving an SVM model sets of labeled training data for each category, they're able to categorize new text. You're refining your training data, and maybe you've even tried stuff out using Naive Bayes. But now you're feeling confident in your dataset, and want to take it one step further. Enter Support Vector Machines (SVM): a fast and dependable classification algorithm that performs very well with a limited amount of data to analyze.

Specifying a Bayesian prior is notoriously difficult for complex models such as neural networks. Reasoning about parameters is made challenging by the high-dimensionality and over-parameterization of the space. Priors that seem benign and uninformative can have unintuitive and detrimental effects on a model's predictions. For this reason, we propose predictive complexity priors: a functional prior that is defined by comparing the model's predictions to those of a reference model. Although originally defined on the model outputs, we transfer the prior to the model parameters via a change of variables. The traditional Bayesian workflow can then proceed as usual. We apply our predictive complexity prior to high-dimensional regression, reasoning over neural network depth, and sharing of statistical strength for few-shot learning.

Decision trees (DTs) epitomize what have become to be known as interpretable machine learning (ML) models. This is informally motivated by paths in DTs being often much smaller than the total number of features. This paper shows that in some settings DTs can hardly be deemed interpretable, with paths in a DT being arbitrarily larger than a PI-explanation, i.e. a subset-minimal set of feature values that entails the prediction. As a result, the paper proposes a novel model for computing PI-explanations of DTs, which enables computing one PI-explanation in polynomial time. Moreover, it is shown that enumeration of PI-explanations can be reduced to the enumeration of minimal hitting sets. Experimental results were obtained on a wide range of publicly available datasets with well-known DT-learning tools, and confirm that in most cases DTs have paths that are proper supersets of PI-explanations.

A decision tree is commonly restricted to use a single hyperplane to split the covariate space at each of its internal nodes. It often requires a large number of nodes to achieve high accuracy, hurting its interpretability. In this paper, we propose convex polytope trees (CPT) to expand the family of decision trees by an interpretable generalization of their decision boundary. The splitting function at each node of CPT is based on the logical disjunction of a community of differently weighted probabilistic linear decision-makers, which also geometrically corresponds to a convex polytope in the covariate space. We use a nonparametric Bayesian prior at each node to infer the community's size, encouraging simpler decision boundaries by shrinking the number of polytope facets. We develop a greedy method to efficiently construct CPT and scalable end-to-end training algorithms for the tree parameters when the tree structure is given. We empirically demonstrate the efficiency of CPT over existing state-of-the-art decision trees in several real-world classification and regression tasks from diverse domains.

The traditional binary classification framework constructs classifiers which may have good accuracy, but whose false positive and false negative error rates are not under users' control. In many cases, one of the errors is more severe and only the classifiers with the corresponding rate lower than the predefined threshold are acceptable. In this study, we combine binary classification with statistical hypothesis testing to control the target error rate of already trained classifiers. In particular, we show how to turn binary classifiers into statistical tests, calculate the classification p-values, and use them to limit the target error rate.

Domains where supervised models are deployed often come with task-specific constraints, such as prior expert knowledge on the ground-truth function, or desiderata like safety and fairness. We introduce a novel probabilistic framework for reasoning with such constraints and formulate a prior that enables us to effectively incorporate them into Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), including a variant that can be amortized over tasks. The resulting Output-Constrained BNN (OC-BNN) is fully consistent with the Bayesian framework for uncertainty quantification and is amenable to black-box inference. Unlike typical BNN inference in uninterpretable parameter space, OC-BNNs widen the range of functional knowledge that can be incorporated, especially for model users without expertise in machine learning. We demonstrate the efficacy of OC-BNNs on real-world datasets, spanning multiple domains such as healthcare, criminal justice, and credit scoring.

Compared to the conditional mean as a simple point estimator, the conditional density function is more informative to describe the distributions with multi-modality, asymmetry or heteroskedasticity. In this paper, we propose a novel parametric conditional density estimation method by showing the connection between the general density and the likelihood function of inhomogeneous Poisson process models. The maximum likelihood estimates can be obtained via weighted logistic regressions, and the computation can be significantly relaxed by combining a block-wise alternating maximization scheme and local case-control sampling. We also provide simulation studies for illustration.

How can we plan efficiently in real time to control an agent in a complex environment that may involve many other agents? While existing sample-based planners have enjoyed empirical success in large POMDPs, their performance heavily relies on a fast simulator. However, real-world scenarios are complex in nature and their simulators are often computationally demanding, which severely limits the performance of online planners. In this work, we propose influence-augmented online planning, a principled method to transform a factored simulator of the entire environment into a local simulator that samples only the state variables that are most relevant to the observation and reward of the planning agent and captures the incoming influence from the rest of the environment using machine learning methods. Our main experimental results show that planning on this less accurate but much faster local simulator with POMCP leads to higher real-time planning performance than planning on the simulator that models the entire environment.