Network estimation and variable selection have been extensively studied in the statistical literature, but only recently have those two challenges been addressed simultaneously. In this paper, we seek to develop a novel method to simultaneously estimate network interactions and associations to relevant covariates for count data, and specifically for compositional data, which have a fixed sum constraint. We use a hierarchical Bayesian model with latent layers and employ spike-and-slab priors for both edge and covariate selection. For posterior inference, we develop a variational inference scheme with an expectation maximization step, to enable efficient estimation. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms existing methods in its accuracy of network recovery. We show the practical utility of our model via an application to microbiome data. The human microbiome has been shown to contribute to many of the functions of the human body, and also to be linked with a number of diseases. In our application, we seek to better understand the interaction between microbes and relevant covariates, as well as the interaction of microbes with each other. We provide a Python implementation of our algorithm, called SINC (Simultaneous Inference for Networks and Covariates), available online.

A systematic approach to finding variational approximation in an otherwise intractable non-conjugate model is to exploit the general principle of convex duality by minorizing the marginal likelihood that renders the problem tractable. While such approaches are popular in the context of variational inference in non-conjugate Bayesian models, theoretical guarantees on statistical optimality and algorithmic convergence are lacking. Focusing on logistic regression models, we provide mild conditions on the data generating process to derive non-asymptotic upper bounds to the risk incurred by the variational optima. We demonstrate that these assumptions can be completely relaxed if one considers a slight variation of the algorithm by raising the likelihood to a fractional power. Next, we utilize the theory of dynamical systems to provide convergence guarantees for such algorithms in logistic and multinomial logit regression. In particular, we establish local asymptotic stability of the algorithm without any assumptions on the data-generating process. We explore a special case involving a semi-orthogonal design under which a global convergence is obtained. The theory is further illustrated using several numerical studies.

Can artificial neural networks learn logic? Today's #Machinelearning running #neuralnetworks is mere "a method of #dataanalysis that automates analytical model building". It can NOT learn from data, or "recognize patterns" or "make decisions" with minimal human intervention. It is an #algorithms that improve automatically through "training data" to fit some parameters; or the computing ability to automatically apply complex mathematical calculations to #bigdata. In such a ML, a common task is the study & construction of algorithms that can INTERPOLATE from and make ESTIMATIONS on #data.

This paper presents an inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) framework for Bayesian stopping time problems. By observing the actions of a Bayesian decision maker, we provide a necessary and sufficient condition to identify if these actions are consistent with optimizing a cost function; then we construct set valued estimates of the cost function. To achieve this IRL objective, we use novel ideas from Bayesian revealed preferences stemming from microeconomics. To illustrate our IRL scheme,we consider two important examples of stopping time problems, namely, sequential hypothesis testing and Bayesian search. Finally, for finite datasets, we propose an IRL detection algorithm and give finite sample bounds on its error probabilities. Also we discuss how to identify $\epsilon$-optimal Bayesian decision makers and perform IRL.

The discrepancy between maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and task measures such as BLEU score has been studied before for autoregressive neural machine translation (NMT) and resulted in alternative training algorithms (Ranzato et al., 2016; Norouzi et al., 2016; Shen et al., 2016; Wu et al., 2018). However, MLE training remains the de facto approach for autoregressive NMT because of its computational efficiency and stability. Despite this mismatch between the training objective and task measure, we notice that the samples drawn from an MLE-based trained NMT support the desired distribution -- there are samples with much higher BLEU score comparing to the beam decoding output. To benefit from this observation, we train an energy-based model to mimic the behavior of the task measure (i.e., the energy-based model assigns lower energy to samples with higher BLEU score), which is resulted in a re-ranking algorithm based on the samples drawn from NMT: energy-based re-ranking (EBR). Our EBR consistently improves the performance of the Transformer-based NMT: +3 BLEU points on Sinhala-English, +2.0 BLEU points on IWSLT'17 French-English, and +1.7 BLEU points on WMT'19 German-English tasks.

We propose a variational Bayesian (VB) procedure for high-dimensional linear model inferences with heavy tail shrinkage priors, such as student-t prior. Theoretically, we establish the consistency of the proposed VB method and prove that under the proper choice of prior specifications, the contraction rate of the VB posterior is nearly optimal. It justifies the validity of VB inference as an alternative of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. Meanwhile, comparing to conventional MCMC methods, the VB procedure achieves much higher computational efficiency, which greatly alleviates the computing burden for modern machine learning applications such as massive data analysis. Through numerical studies, we demonstrate that the proposed VB method leads to shorter computing time, higher estimation accuracy, and lower variable selection error than competitive sparse Bayesian methods.

This paper studies the problem of approximately unlearning a Bayesian model from a small subset of the training data to be erased. We frame this problem as one of minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the approximate posterior belief of model parameters after directly unlearning from erased data vs. the exact posterior belief from retraining with remaining data. Using the variational inference (VI) framework, we show that it is equivalent to minimizing an evidence upper bound which trades off between fully unlearning from erased data vs. not entirely forgetting the posterior belief given the full data (i.e., including the remaining data); the latter prevents catastrophic unlearning that can render the model useless. In model training with VI, only an approximate (instead of exact) posterior belief given the full data can be obtained, which makes unlearning even more challenging. We propose two novel tricks to tackle this challenge. We empirically demonstrate our unlearning methods on Bayesian models such as sparse Gaussian process and logistic regression using synthetic and real-world datasets.

Collaborative machine learning (ML) is an appealing paradigm to build high-quality ML models by training on the aggregated data from many parties. However, these parties are only willing to share their data when given enough incentives, such as a guaranteed fair reward based on their contributions. This motivates the need for measuring a party's contribution and designing an incentive-aware reward scheme accordingly. This paper proposes to value a party's reward based on Shapley value and information gain on model parameters given its data. Subsequently, we give each party a model as a reward. To formally incentivize the collaboration, we define some desirable properties (e.g., fairness and stability) which are inspired by cooperative game theory but adapted for our model reward that is uniquely freely replicable. Then, we propose a novel model reward scheme to satisfy fairness and trade off between the desirable properties via an adjustable parameter. The value of each party's model reward determined by our scheme is attained by injecting Gaussian noise to the aggregated training data with an optimized noise variance. We empirically demonstrate interesting properties of our scheme and evaluate its performance using synthetic and real-world datasets.

In recent years, neural architecture search (NAS) has received intensive scientific and industrial interest due to its capability of finding a neural architecture with high accuracy for various artificial intelligence tasks such as image classification or object detection. In particular, gradient-based NAS approaches have become one of the more popular approaches thanks to their computational efficiency during the search. However, these methods often experience a mode collapse, where the quality of the found architectures is poor due to the algorithm resorting to choosing a single operation type for the entire network, or stagnating at a local minima for various datasets or search spaces. To address these defects, we present a differentiable variational inference-based NAS method for searching sparse convolutional neural networks. Our approach finds the optimal neural architecture by dropping out candidate operations in an over-parameterised supergraph using variational dropout with automatic relevance determination prior, which makes the algorithm gradually remove unnecessary operations and connections without risking mode collapse. The evaluation is conducted through searching two types of convolutional cells that shape the neural network for classifying different image datasets. Our method finds diverse network cells, while showing state-of-the-art accuracy with up to almost 2 times fewer non-zero parameters.

Overparameterised deep neural networks (DNNs) are highly expressive and so can, in principle, generate almost any function that fits a training dataset with zero error. The vast majority of these functions will perform poorly on unseen data, and yet in practice DNNs often generalise remarkably well. This success suggests that a trained DNN must have a strong inductive bias towards functions with low generalisation error. Here we empirically investigate this inductive bias by calculating, for a range of architectures and datasets, the probability $P_{SGD}(f\mid S)$ that an overparameterised DNN, trained with stochastic gradient descent (SGD) or one of its variants, converges on a function $f$ consistent with a training set $S$. We also use Gaussian processes to estimate the Bayesian posterior probability $P_B(f\mid S)$ that the DNN expresses $f$ upon random sampling of its parameters, conditioned on $S$. Our main findings are that $P_{SGD}(f\mid S)$ correlates remarkably well with $P_B(f\mid S)$ and that $P_B(f\mid S)$ is strongly biased towards low-error and low complexity functions. These results imply that strong inductive bias in the parameter-function map (which determines $P_B(f\mid S)$), rather than a special property of SGD, is the primary explanation for why DNNs generalise so well in the overparameterised regime. While our results suggest that the Bayesian posterior $P_B(f\mid S)$ is the first order determinant of $P_{SGD}(f\mid S)$, there remain second order differences that are sensitive to hyperparameter tuning. A function probability picture, based on $P_{SGD}(f\mid S)$ and/or $P_B(f\mid S)$, can shed new light on the way that variations in architecture or hyperparameter settings such as batch size, learning rate, and optimiser choice, affect DNN performance.