Mathematical modelling of unemployment dynamics attempts to predict the probability of a job seeker finding a job as a function of time. This is typically achieved by using information in unemployment records. These records are right censored, making survival analysis a suitable approach for parameter estimation. The proposed model uses a deep artificial neural network (ANN) as a non-linear hazard function. Through embedding, high-cardinality categorical features are analysed efficiently. The posterior distribution of the ANN parameters are estimated using a variational Bayes method. The model is evaluated on a time-to-employment data set spanning from 2011 to 2020 provided by the Slovenian public employment service. It is used to determine the employment probability over time for each individual on the record. Similar models could be applied to other questions with multi-dimensional, high-cardinality categorical data including censored records. Such data is often encountered in personal records, for example in medical records.

Federated learning (FL) allows multiple clients to collaboratively learn a globally shared model through cycles of model aggregation and local model training without the need to share data. In this paper, we comprehensively study a new problem named aggregation error (AE), arising from the model aggregation stage on a server, which is mainly induced by the heterogeneity of the client data. Due to the large discrepancies between local models, the accompanying large AE generally results in a slow convergence and an expected reduction of accuracy for FL. In order to reduce AE, we propose a novel federated learning framework from a Bayesian perspective, in which a multivariate Gaussian product mechanism is employed to aggregate the local models. It is worth noting that the product of Gaussians is still a Gaussian. This property allows us to directly aggregate local expectations and covariances in a definitely convex form, thereby greatly reducing the AE. Accordingly, on the clients, we develop a new Federated Online Laplace Approximation (FOLA) method, which can estimate the parameters of the local posterior by repeatedly accumulating priors. Specifically, in every round, the global posterior distributed from the server can be treated as the priors, and thus the local posterior can also be effectively approximated by a Gaussian using FOLA. Experimental results on benchmarks reach state-of-the-arts performance and clearly demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method.

Recent works have presented promising results from the application of machine learning (ML) to the modeling of flow rates in oil and gas wells. The encouraging results combined with advantageous properties of ML models, such as computationally cheap evaluation and ease of calibration to new data, have sparked optimism for the development of data-driven virtual flow meters (VFMs). We contribute to this development by presenting a probabilistic VFM based on a Bayesian neural network. We consider homoscedastic and heteroscedastic measurement noise, and show how to train the models using maximum a posteriori estimation and variational inference. We study the methods by modeling on a large and heterogeneous dataset, consisting of 60 wells across five different oil and gas assets. The predictive performance is analyzed on historical and future test data, where we achieve an average error of 5-6% and 9-13% for the 50% best performing models, respectively. Variational inference appears to provide more robust predictions than the reference approach on future data. The difference in prediction performance and uncertainty on historical and future data is explored in detail, and the findings motivate the development of alternative strategies for data-driven VFM.

We present a framework for analysing agent incentives using causal influence diagrams. We establish that a well-known criterion for value of information is complete. We propose a new graphical criterion for value of control, establishing its soundness and completeness. We also introduce two new concepts for incentive analysis: response incentives indicate which changes in the environment affect an optimal decision, while instrumental control incentives establish whether an agent can influence its utility via a variable X. For both new concepts, we provide sound and complete graphical criteria. We show by example how these results can help with evaluating the safety and fairness of an AI system.

Deep generative models have demonstrated their effectiveness in learning latent representation and modeling complex dependencies of time series. In this paper, we present a Smoothness-Inducing Sequential Variational Auto-Encoder (SISVAE) model for robust estimation and anomaly detection of multi-dimensional time series. Our model is based on Variational Auto-Encoder (VAE), and its backbone is fulfilled by a Recurrent Neural Network to capture latent temporal structures of time series for both generative model and inference model. Specifically, our model parameterizes mean and variance for each time-stamp with flexible neural networks, resulting in a non-stationary model that can work without the assumption of constant noise as commonly made by existing Markov models. However, such a flexibility may cause the model fragile to anomalies. To achieve robust density estimation which can also benefit detection tasks, we propose a smoothness-inducing prior over possible estimations. The proposed prior works as a regularizer that places penalty at non-smooth reconstructions. Our model is learned efficiently with a novel stochastic gradient variational Bayes estimator. In particular, we study two decision criteria for anomaly detection: reconstruction probability and reconstruction error. We show the effectiveness of our model on both synthetic datasets and public real-world benchmarks.

The graph of a Bayesian Network (BN) can be machine learned, determined by causal knowledge, or a combination of both. In disciplines like bioinformatics, applying BN structure learning algorithms can reveal new insights that would otherwise remain unknown. However, these algorithms are less effective when the input data are limited in terms of sample size, which is often the case when working with real data. This paper focuses on purely machine learned and purely knowledge-based BNs and investigates their differences in terms of graphical structure and how well the implied statistical models explain the data. The tests are based on four previous case studies whose BN structure was determined by domain knowledge. Using various metrics, we compare the knowledge-based graphs to the machine learned graphs generated from various algorithms implemented in TETRAD spanning all three classes of learning. The results show that, while the algorithms produce graphs with much higher model selection score, the knowledge-based graphs are more accurate predictors of variables of interest. Maximising score fitting is ineffective in the presence of limited sample size because the fitting becomes increasingly distorted with limited data, guiding algorithms towards graphical patterns that share higher fitting scores and yet deviate considerably from the true graph. This highlights the value of causal knowledge in these cases, as well as the need for more appropriate fitting scores suitable for limited data. Lastly, the experiments also provide new evidence that support the notion that results from simulated data tell us little about actual real-world performance.

Graph-structured data ubiquitously appears in science and engineering. Graph neural networks (GNNs) are designed to exploit the relational inductive bias exhibited in graphs; they have been shown to outperform other forms of neural networks in scenarios where structure information supplements node features. The most common GNN architecture aggregates information from neighborhoods based on message passing. Its generality has made it broadly applicable. In this paper, we focus on a special, yet widely used, type of graphs--DAGs--and inject a stronger inductive bias--partial ordering--into the neural network design. We propose the directed acyclic graph neural network, DAGNN, an architecture that processes information according to the flow defined by the partial order. DAGNN can be considered a framework that entails earlier works as special cases (e.g., models for trees and models updating node representations recurrently), but we identify several crucial components that prior architectures lack. We perform comprehensive experiments, including ablation studies, on representative DAG datasets (i.e., source code, neural architectures, and probabilistic graphical models) and demonstrate the superiority of DAGNN over simpler DAG architectures as well as general graph architectures. Graph-structured data is ubiquitous across various disciplines (Gilmer et al., 2017; Zitnik et al., 2018; Sanchez-Gonzalez et al., 2020). Graph neural networks (GNNs) use both the graph structure and node features to produce a vectorial representation, which can be used for classification, regression (Hu et al., 2020), and graph decoding (Li et al., 2018; Zhang et al., 2019). Most popular GNNs update node representations through iterative message passing between neighboring nodes, followed by pooling (either flat or hierarchical (Lee et al., 2019; Ranjan et al., 2020)), to produce a graph representation (Li et al., 2016; Kipf & Welling, 2017; Gilmer et al., 2017; Veličković et al., 2018; Xu et al., 2019). The relational inductive bias (Santoro et al., 2017; Battaglia et al., 2018; Xu et al., 2020)--neighborhood aggregation--empowers GNNs to outperform graph-agnostic neural networks. For notational simplicity, we omit edge attributes; but they can be straightforwardly incorporated into the framework (1)-(2).

Combination and aggregation techniques can improve forecast accuracy substantially. This also holds for probabilistic forecasting methods where full predictive distributions are combined. There are several time-varying and adaptive weighting schemes like Bayesian model averaging (BMA). However, the performance of different forecasters may vary not only over time but also in parts of the distribution. So one may be more accurate in the center of the distributions, and other ones perform better in predicting the distribution's tails. Consequently, we introduce a new weighting procedure that considers both varying performance across time and the distribution. We discuss pointwise online aggregation algorithms that optimize with respect to the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). After analyzing the theoretical properties of a fully adaptive Bernstein online aggregation (BOA) method, we introduce smoothing procedures for pointwise CRPS learning. The properties are confirmed and discussed using simulation studies. Additionally, we illustrate the performance in a forecasting study for carbon markets. In detail, we predict the distribution of European emission allowance prices.

Technical growths have empowered, numerous revolutions in the educational system by acquainting with technology into the classroom and by elevating the learning experience. Nowadays Web-based learning is getting much popularity. This paper describes the web-based learning and their effectiveness towards students. One of the prime factors in education or learning system is feedback; it is beneficial to learning if it must be used effectively. In this paper, we worked on how machine learning techniques like Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Naive Bayes (NB), Decision Tree (DT) can be applied over Web-based learning, emphasis given on sentiment present in the feedback students. We also work on two types of Feature Extraction Technique (FETs) namely Count Vector (CVr) or Bag of Words) (BoW) and Term Frequency and Inverse Document Frequency (TF-IDF) Vector. In the research study, it is our goal for our proposed LR, SVM, NB, and DT models to classify the presence of Student Feedback Dataset (SFB) with improved accuracy with cleaned dataset and feature extraction techniques. The SFB is one of the significant concerns among the student sentimental analysis.

We investigate the local differential privacy (LDP) guarantees of a randomized privacy mechanism via its contraction properties. We first show that LDP constraints can be equivalently cast in terms of the contraction coefficient of the $E_\gamma$-divergence. We then use this equivalent formula to express LDP guarantees of privacy mechanisms in terms of contraction coefficients of arbitrary $f$-divergences. When combined with standard estimation-theoretic tools (such as Le Cam's and Fano's converse methods), this result allows us to study the trade-off between privacy and utility in several testing and minimax and Bayesian estimation problems.