In multistage manufacturing systems, modeling multiple quality indices based on the process sensing variables is important. However, the classic modeling technique predicts each quality variable one at a time, which fails to consider the correlation within or between stages. We propose a deep multistage multi-task learning framework to jointly predict all output sensing variables in a unified end-to-end learning framework according to the sequential system architecture in the MMS. Our numerical studies and real case study have shown that the new model has a superior performance compared to many benchmark methods as well as great interpretability through developed variable selection techniques.

Comprehensive synaptic wiring diagrams or "connectomes" provide a detailed map of all the neurons and their interconnections in a brain region or even an entire organism. Since the connectome of the nematode C. elegans was obtained using electron microscopy methods in 1986 [1], methods for data acquisition and analysis have both been scaled up and improved significantly. Today, it has become possible to provide connectomes of much more complex systems such as various Drosophila melanogaster circuits [2, 3], or even a large part of its brain [4, 5]; the olfactory bulb of zebrafish [6]; and various pieces of the rodent retina [7-9], hippocampus [10], and cortex [11-14]. While there still remain a number of formidable challenges on the way to the complete connectome of a mammal or even human brain [15], the data sets available today already give rise to a number of intriguing questions. At the same time, it is becoming increasingly clear that new quantitative methods must be developed to fully exploit the new troves of data that connectomics provides [16]. Here, we focus on local neural networks that store information in their synaptic connectivity. It has been hypothesised that cortical networks with their extensive recurrent synaptic connectivity are optimised for this task [17]. A popular model for these networks are attractor neural networks such as the Hopfield's model [18] and various generalisations [19-22], where memories are stored as

Neural network architectures are achieving superhuman performance on an expanding range of tasks. To effectively and safely deploy these systems, their decision-making must be understandable to a wide range of stakeholders. Methods to explain AI have been proposed to answer this challenge, but a lack of theory impedes the development of systematic abstractions which are necessary for cumulative knowledge gains. We propose Bayesian Teaching as a framework for unifying explainable AI (XAI) by integrating machine learning and human learning. Bayesian Teaching formalizes explanation as a communication act of an explainer to shift the beliefs of an explainee. This formalization decomposes any XAI method into four components: (1) the inference to be explained, (2) the explanatory medium, (3) the explainee model, and (4) the explainer model. The abstraction afforded by Bayesian Teaching to decompose any XAI method elucidates the invariances among them. The decomposition of XAI systems enables modular validation, as each of the first three components listed can be tested semi-independently. This decomposition also promotes generalization through recombination of components from different XAI systems, which facilitates the generation of novel variants. These new variants need not be evaluated one by one provided that each component has been validated, leading to an exponential decrease in development time. Finally, by making the goal of explanation explicit, Bayesian Teaching helps developers to assess how suitable an XAI system is for its intended real-world use case. Thus, Bayesian Teaching provides a theoretical framework that encourages systematic, scientific investigation of XAI.

Order effects occur when judgments about a hypothesis's probability given a sequence of information do not equal the probability of the same hypothesis when the information is reversed. Different experiments have been performed in the literature that supports evidence of order effects. We proposed a Bayesian update model for order effects where each question can be thought of as a mini-experiment where the respondents reflect on their beliefs. We showed that order effects appear, and they have a simple cognitive explanation: the respondent's prior belief that two questions are correlated. The proposed Bayesian model allows us to make several predictions: (1) we found certain conditions on the priors that limit the existence of order effects; (2) we show that, for our model, the QQ equality is not necessarily satisfied (due to symmetry assumptions); and (3) the proposed Bayesian model has the advantage of possessing fewer parameters than its quantum counterpart.

Class-conditional noise commonly exists in machine learning tasks, where the class label is corrupted with a probability depending on its ground-truth. Many research efforts have been made to improve the model robustness against the class-conditional noise. However, they typically focus on the single label case by assuming that only one label is corrupted. In real applications, an instance is usually associated with multiple labels, which could be corrupted simultaneously with their respective conditional probabilities. In this paper, we formalize this problem as a general framework of learning with Class-Conditional Multi-label Noise (CCMN for short). We establish two unbiased estimators with error bounds for solving the CCMN problems, and further prove that they are consistent with commonly used multi-label loss functions. Finally, a new method for partial multi-label learning is implemented with unbiased estimator under the CCMN framework. Empirical studies on multiple datasets and various evaluation metrics validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

We present a workflow for clinical data analysis that relies on Bayesian Structure Learning (BSL), an unsupervised learning approach, robust to noise and biases, that allows to incorporate prior medical knowledge into the learning process and that provides explainable results in the form of a graph showing the causal connections among the analyzed features. The workflow consists in a multi-step approach that goes from identifying the main causes of patient's outcome through BSL, to the realization of a tool suitable for clinical practice, based on a Binary Decision Tree (BDT), to recognize patients at high-risk with information available already at hospital admission time. We evaluate our approach on a feature-rich COVID-19 dataset, showing that the proposed framework provides a schematic overview of the multi-factorial processes that jointly contribute to the outcome. We discuss how these computational findings are confirmed by current understanding of the COVID-19 pathogenesis. Further, our approach yields to a highly interpretable tool correctly predicting the outcome of 85% of subjects based exclusively on 3 features: age, a previous history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and the PaO2/FiO2 ratio at the time of arrival to the hospital.

Bayesian neural networks have shown great promise in many applications where calibrated uncertainty estimates are crucial and can often also lead to a higher predictive performance. However, it remains challenging to choose a good prior distribution over their weights. While isotropic Gaussian priors are often chosen in practice due to their simplicity, they do not reflect our true prior beliefs well and can lead to suboptimal performance. Our new library, BNNpriors, enables state-of-the-art Markov Chain Monte Carlo inference on Bayesian neural networks with a wide range of predefined priors, including heavy-tailed ones, hierarchical ones, and mixture priors. Moreover, it follows a modular approach that eases the design and implementation of new custom priors. It has facilitated foundational discoveries on the nature of the cold posterior effect in Bayesian neural networks and will hopefully catalyze future research as well as practical applications in this area.

Decision lists (DLs) find a wide range of uses for classification problems in Machine Learning (ML), being implemented in a number of ML frameworks. DLs are often perceived as interpretable. However, building on recent results for decision trees (DTs), we argue that interpretability is an elusive goal for some DLs. As a result, for some uses of DLs, it will be important to compute (rigorous) explanations. Unfortunately, and in clear contrast with the case of DTs, this paper shows that computing explanations for DLs is computationally hard. Motivated by this result, the paper proposes propositional encodings for computing abductive explanations (AXps) and contrastive explanations (CXps) of DLs. Furthermore, the paper investigates the practical efficiency of a MARCO-like approach for enumerating explanations. The experimental results demonstrate that, for DLs used in practical settings, the use of SAT oracles offers a very efficient solution, and that complete enumeration of explanations is most often feasible.

Synthetic data generation is of great interest in diverse applications, such as for privacy protection. Deep generative models, such as variational autoencoders (VAEs), are a popular approach for creating such synthetic datasets from original data. Despite the success of VAEs, there are limitations when it comes to the bimodal and skewed marginal distributions. These deviate from the unimodal symmetric distributions that are encouraged by the normality assumption typically used for the latent representations in VAEs. While there are extensions that assume other distributions for the latent space, this does not generally increase flexibility for data with many different distributions. Therefore, we propose a novel method, pre-transformation variational autoencoders (PTVAEs), to specifically address bimodal and skewed data, by employing pre-transformations at the level of original variables. Two types of transformations are used to bring the data close to a normal distribution by a separate parameter optimization for each variable in a dataset. We compare the performance of our method with other state-of-the-art methods for synthetic data generation. In addition to the visual comparison, we use a utility measurement for a quantitative evaluation. The results show that the PTVAE approach can outperform others in both bimodal and skewed data generation. Furthermore, the simplicity of the approach makes it usable in combination with other extensions of VAE.

Ensembles of machine learning models yield improved system performance as well as robust and interpretable uncertainty estimates; however, their inference costs may often be prohibitively high. Ensemble Distribution Distillation is an approach that allows a single model to efficiently capture both the predictive performance and uncertainty estimates of an ensemble. For classification, this is achieved by training a Dirichlet distribution over the ensemble members' output distributions via the maximum likelihood criterion. Although theoretically principled, this criterion exhibits poor convergence when applied to large-scale tasks where the number of classes is very high. In our work, we analyze this effect and show that for the Dirichlet log-likelihood criterion classes with low probability induce larger gradients than high-probability classes. This forces the model to focus on the distribution of the ensemble tail-class probabilities. We propose a new training objective which minimizes the reverse KL-divergence to a Proxy-Dirichlet target derived from the ensemble. This loss resolves the gradient issues of Ensemble Distribution Distillation, as we demonstrate both theoretically and empirically on the ImageNet and WMT17 En-De datasets containing 1000 and 40,000 classes, respectively.