Stochastic simulations such as large-scale, spatiotemporal, age-structured epidemic models are computationally expensive at fine-grained resolution. We propose Interactive Neural Process (INP), an interactive framework to continuously learn a deep learning surrogate model and accelerate simulation. Our framework is based on the novel integration of Bayesian active learning, stochastic simulation and deep sequence modeling. In particular, we develop a novel spatiotemporal neural process model to mimic the underlying process dynamics. Our model automatically infers the latent process which describes the intrinsic uncertainty of the simulator. This also gives rise to a new acquisition function that can quantify the uncertainty of deep learning predictions. We design Bayesian active learning algorithms to iteratively query the simulator, gather more data, and continuously improve the model. We perform theoretical analysis and demonstrate that our approach reduces sample complexity compared with random sampling in high dimension. Empirically, we demonstrate our framework can faithfully imitate the behavior of a complex infectious disease simulator with a small number of examples, enabling rapid simulation and scenario exploration.

Among different ML models, Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) [130] are well-known and widely used for their powerful representation learning from high-dimensional data such as images, texts, and speech. However, as ML algorithms enter sensitive real-world domains with trustworthiness, safety, and fairness prerequisites, the need for corresponding techniques and metrics for high-stake domains is more noticeable than before. Hence, researchers in different fields propose guidelines for Trustworthy AI [208], Safe AI [5], and Explainable AI [155] as stepping stones for next generation Responsible AI [6, 247]. Furthermore, government reports and regulations on AI accountability [75], trustworthiness [216], and safety [31] are gradually creating mandating laws to protect citizens' data privacy, fair data processing, and upholding safety for AI-based products. The development and deployment of ML algorithms for open-world tasks come with reliability and dependability limitations rooting from model performance, robustness, and uncertainty limitations [156]. Unlike traditional code-based software, ML models have fundamental safety drawbacks, including performance limitations on their training set and run-time robustness in their operational domain.

Communication is a cornerstone of social interactions, be it with human or artificial intelligence (AI). Yet it can be harmful, depending on the honesty of the exchanged information. To study this, an agent based sociological simulation framework is presented, the reputation game. This illustrates the impact of different communication strategies on the agents' reputation. The game focuses on the trustworthiness of the participating agents, their honesty as perceived by others. In the game, each agent exchanges statements with the others about their own and each other's honesty, which lets their judgments evolve. Various sender and receiver strategies are studied, like sycophant, egocentricity, pathological lying, and aggressiveness for senders as well as awareness and lack thereof for receivers. Minimalist malicious strategies are identified, like being manipulative, dominant, or destructive, which significantly increase reputation at others' costs. Phenomena such as echo chambers, self-deception, deception symbiosis, clique formation, freezing of group opinions emerge from the dynamics. This indicates that the reputation game can be studied for complex group phenomena, to test behavioral hypothesis, and to analyze AI influenced social media. With refined rules it may help to understand social interactions, and to safeguard the design of non-abusive AI systems.

Attention-based neural networks have achieved state-of-the-art results on a wide range of tasks. Most such models use deterministic attention while stochastic attention is less explored due to the optimization difficulties or complicated model design. This paper introduces Bayesian attention belief networks, which construct a decoder network by modeling unnormalized attention weights with a hierarchy of gamma distributions, and an encoder network by stacking Weibull distributions with a deterministic-upward-stochastic-downward structure to approximate the posterior. The resulting auto-encoding networks can be optimized in a differentiable way with a variational lower bound. It is simple to convert any models with deterministic attention, including pretrained ones, to the proposed Bayesian attention belief networks. On a variety of language understanding tasks, we show that our method outperforms deterministic attention and state-of-the-art stochastic attention in accuracy, uncertainty estimation, generalization across domains, and robustness to adversarial attacks. We further demonstrate the general applicability of our method on neural machine translation and visual question answering, showing great potential of incorporating our method into various attention-related tasks.

It is often remarked that neural networks fail to increase their uncertainty when predicting on data far from the training distribution. Yet naively using softmax confidence as a proxy for uncertainty achieves modest success in tasks exclusively testing for this, e.g., out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. This paper investigates this contradiction, identifying two implicit biases that do encourage softmax confidence to correlate with epistemic uncertainty: 1) Approximately optimal decision boundary structure, and 2) Filtering effects of deep networks. It describes why low-dimensional intuitions about softmax confidence are misleading. Diagnostic experiments quantify reasons softmax confidence can fail, finding that extrapolations are less to blame than overlap between training and OOD data in final-layer representations. Pre-trained/fine-tuned networks reduce this overlap.

Probabilistic deep learning is deep learning that accounts for uncertainty, both model uncertainty and data uncertainty. It is based on the use of probabilistic models and deep neural networks. We distinguish two approaches to probabilistic deep learning: probabilistic neural networks and deep probabilistic models. The former employs deep neural networks that utilize probabilistic layers which can represent and process uncertainty; the latter uses probabilistic models that incorporate deep neural network components which capture complex non-linear stochastic relationships between the random variables. We discuss some major examples of each approach including Bayesian neural networks and mixture density networks (for probabilistic neural networks), and variational autoencoders, deep Gaussian processes and deep mixed effects models (for deep probabilistic models). TensorFlow Probability is a library for probabilistic modeling and inference which can be used for both approaches of probabilistic deep learning. We include its code examples for illustration.

This paper establishes a central limit theorem under the assumption that conditional variances can vary in a largely unstructured history-dependent way across experiments subject only to the restriction that they lie in a fixed interval. Limits take a novel and tractable form, and are expressed in terms of oscillating Brownian motion. A second contribution is application of this result to a class of multi-armed bandit problems where the decision-maker is loss averse.

Despite its wide use, recent studies have revealed unexpected and undesirable properties of neural autoregressive sequence models trained with maximum likelihood, such as an unreasonably high affinity to short sequences after training and to infinitely long sequences at decoding time. We propose to study these phenomena by investigating how the modes, or local maxima, of a distribution are maintained throughout the full learning chain of the ground-truth, empirical, learned and decoding-induced distributions, via the newly proposed mode recovery cost. We design a tractable testbed where we build three types of ground-truth distributions: (1) an LSTM based structured distribution, (2) an unstructured distribution where probability of a sequence does not depend on its content, and (3) a product of these two which we call a semi-structured distribution. Our study reveals both expected and unexpected findings. First, starting with data collection, mode recovery cost strongly relies on the ground-truth distribution and is most costly with the semi-structured distribution. Second, after learning, mode recovery cost from the ground-truth distribution may increase or decrease compared to data collection, with the largest cost degradation occurring with the semi-structured ground-truth distribution. Finally, the ability of the decoding-induced distribution to recover modes from the learned distribution is highly impacted by the choices made earlier in the learning chain. We conclude that future research must consider the entire learning chain in order to fully understand the potentials and perils and to further improve neural autoregressive sequence models.

Given a set of samples, the parameters of a GM are determined in such a way as to best fit the samples in a maximum likelihood way. Solutions for equally weighted samples are readily available, expectation-maximization (EM) based methods being the most prevalent because of low computational requirements and ease of implementation. So it comes as a surprise that GM estimation for weighted samples is hard to find in literature. It might be even more surprising that the standard reference [1] gives incorrect results, see Figure 1. 2. Context Applications for sample-to-density function approximation include clustering of unlabled data [2, 3], multi-target tracking [4, 5], group tracking [6], multilateration [7, 8], and arbitrary density representation in nonlinear filters [9, 10]. A popular basic solution to this is the k-means algorithm. It does not find a complete density representation, only the means of the individual clusters. The k-means algorithm uses hard sample-tomean associations, therefore yields merely approximate solutions but can be computationally optimized using k-d trees [11, 12]. Moreover, the global optimum can be found deterministically [13], therefore it can be used to provide an initial guess for more elaborate algorithms. A sample-to-density approximation that is optimal in a maximum likelihood sense can be searched with numerical optimization techniques such as the Newton algorithm that has quadratic convergence but high computational demand per iteration, quasi-Newton methods, the method of scoring, or the conjugate gradient method with slower convergence but less computational effort per iteration [14].

Model discovery aims at autonomously discovering differential equations underlying a dataset. Approaches based on Physics Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have shown great promise, but a fully-differentiable model which explicitly learns the equation has remained elusive. In this paper we propose such an approach by combining neural network based surrogates with Sparse Bayesian Learning (SBL). We start by reinterpreting PINNs as multitask models, applying multitask learning using uncertainty, and show that this leads to a natural framework for including Bayesian regression techniques. We then construct a robust model discovery algorithm by using SBL, which we showcase on various datasets. Concurrently, the multitask approach allows the use of probabilistic approximators, and we show a proof of concept using normalizing flows to directly learn a density model from single particle data. Our work expands PINNs to various types of neural network architectures, and connects neural network-based surrogates to the rich field of Bayesian parameter inference.