Bayesian Learning
ggpairs in R- A Brief Introduction to ggpairs
In this article, we are going to compare pairs and ggpairs functions in R. This will return with Color, Labels, Panels, and by Group in-pairs plot. We will make use of mtcars package here. Let's store some variable into data. The diagonal boxes are column variables and the remaining combination of variables scatter plots.
Fast Bayesian Variable Selection in Binomial and Negative Binomial Regression
Bayesian variable selection is a powerful tool for data analysis, as it offers a principled method for variable selection that accounts for prior information and uncertainty. However, wider adoption of Bayesian variable selection has been hampered by computational challenges, especially in difficult regimes with a large number of covariates or non-conjugate likelihoods. Generalized linear models for count data, which are prevalent in biology, ecology, economics, and beyond, represent an important special case. Here we introduce an efficient MCMC scheme for variable selection in binomial and negative binomial regression that exploits Tempered Gibbs Sampling (Zanella and Roberts, 2019) and that includes logistic regression as a special case. In experiments we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, including on cancer data with seventeen thousand covariates.
High-dimensional separability for one- and few-shot learning
Gorban, Alexander N., Grechuk, Bogdan, Mirkes, Evgeny M., Stasenko, Sergey V., Tyukin, Ivan Y.
This work is driven by a practical question, corrections of Artificial Intelligence (AI) errors. Systematic re-training of a large AI system is hardly possible. To solve this problem, special external devices, correctors, are developed. They should provide quick and non-iterative system fix without modification of a legacy AI system. A common universal part of the AI corrector is a classifier that should separate undesired and erroneous behavior from normal operation. Training of such classifiers is a grand challenge at the heart of the one- and few-shot learning methods. Effectiveness of one- and few-short methods is based on either significant dimensionality reductions or the blessing of dimensionality effects. Stochastic separability is a blessing of dimensionality phenomenon that allows one-and few-shot error correction: in high-dimensional datasets under broad assumptions each point can be separated from the rest of the set by simple and robust linear discriminant. The hierarchical structure of data universe is introduced where each data cluster has a granular internal structure, etc. New stochastic separation theorems for the data distributions with fine-grained structure are formulated and proved. Separation theorems in infinite-dimensional limits are proven under assumptions of compact embedding of patterns into data space. New multi-correctors of AI systems are presented and illustrated with examples of predicting errors and learning new classes of objects by a deep convolutional neural network.
NLP: Twitter Sentiment Analysis
In this hands-on project, we will train a Naive Bayes classifier to predict sentiment from thousands of Twitter tweets. This project could be practically used by any company with social media presence to automatically predict customer's sentiment (i.e.: whether their customers are happy or not). The process could be done automatically without having humans manually review thousands of tweets and customer reviews. Note: This course works best for learners who are based in the North America region.
Score-Based Change Detection for Gradient-Based Learning Machines
Liu, Lang, Salmon, Joseph, Harchaoui, Zaid
The widespread use of machine learning algorithms calls for automatic change detection algorithms to monitor their behavior over time. As a machine learning algorithm learns from a continuous, possibly evolving, stream of data, it is desirable and often critical to supplement it with a companion change detection algorithm to facilitate its monitoring and control. We present a generic score-based change detection method that can detect a change in any number of components of a machine learning model trained via empirical risk minimization. This proposed statistical hypothesis test can be readily implemented for such models designed within a differentiable programming framework. We establish the consistency of the hypothesis test and show how to calibrate it to achieve a prescribed false alarm rate. We illustrate the versatility of the approach on synthetic and real data.
Scene Uncertainty and the Wellington Posterior of Deterministic Image Classifiers
Tsuei, Stephanie, Golatkar, Aditya, Soatto, Stefano
We propose a method to estimate the uncertainty of the outcome of an image classifier on a given input datum. Deep neural networks commonly used for image classification are deterministic maps from an input image to an output class. As such, their outcome on a given datum involves no uncertainty, so we must specify what variability we are referring to when defining, measuring and interpreting "confidence." To this end, we introduce the Wellington Posterior, which is the distribution of outcomes that would have been obtained in response to data that could have been generated by the same scene that produced the given image. Since there are infinitely many scenes that could have generated the given image, the Wellington Posterior requires induction from scenes other than the one portrayed. We explore alternate methods using data augmentation, ensembling, and model linearization. Additional alternatives include generative adversarial networks, conditional prior networks, and supervised single-view reconstruction. We test these alternatives against the empirical posterior obtained by inferring the class of temporally adjacent frames in a video. These developments are only a small step towards assessing the reliability of deep network classifiers in a manner that is compatible with safety-critical applications.
Conjugate Energy-Based Models
Wu, Hao, Esmaeili, Babak, Wick, Michael, Tristan, Jean-Baptiste, van de Meent, Jan-Willem
In this paper, we propose conjugate energy-based models (CEBMs), a new class of energy-based models that define a joint density over data and latent variables. The joint density of a CEBM decomposes into an intractable distribution over data and a tractable posterior over latent variables. CEBMs have similar use cases as variational autoencoders, in the sense that they learn an unsupervised mapping from data to latent variables. However, these models omit a generator network, which allows them to learn more flexible notions of similarity between data points. Our experiments demonstrate that conjugate EBMs achieve competitive results in terms of image modelling, predictive power of latent space, and out-of-domain detection on a variety of datasets.
Active Learning with Multifidelity Modeling for Efficient Rare Event Simulation
Dhulipala, S. L. N., Shields, M. D., Spencer, B. W., Bolisetti, C., Slaughter, A. E., Laboure, V. M., Chakroborty, P.
While multifidelity modeling provides a cost-effective way to conduct uncertainty quantification with computationally expensive models, much greater efficiency can be achieved by adaptively deciding the number of required high-fidelity (HF) simulations, depending on the type and complexity of the problem and the desired accuracy in the results. We propose a framework for active learning with multifidelity modeling emphasizing the efficient estimation of rare events. Our framework works by fusing a low-fidelity (LF) prediction with an HF-inferred correction, filtering the corrected LF prediction to decide whether to call the high-fidelity model, and for enhanced subsequent accuracy, adapting the correction for the LF prediction after every HF model call. The framework does not make any assumptions as to the LF model type or its correlations with the HF model. In addition, for improved robustness when estimating smaller failure probabilities, we propose using dynamic active learning functions that decide when to call the HF model. We demonstrate our framework using several academic case studies and two finite element (FE) model case studies: estimating Navier-Stokes velocities using the Stokes approximation and estimating stresses in a transversely isotropic model subjected to displacements via a coarsely meshed isotropic model. Across these case studies, not only did the proposed framework estimate the failure probabilities accurately, but compared with either Monte Carlo or a standard variance reduction method, it also required only a small fraction of the calls to the HF model.
Chebyshev-Cantelli PAC-Bayes-Bennett Inequality for the Weighted Majority Vote
Wu, Yi-Shan, Masegosa, Andrés R., Lorenzen, Stephan S., Igel, Christian, Seldin, Yevgeny
We present a new second-order oracle bound for the expected risk of a weighted majority vote. The bound is based on a novel parametric form of the Chebyshev-Cantelli inequality (a.k.a.\ one-sided Chebyshev's), which is amenable to efficient minimization. The new form resolves the optimization challenge faced by prior oracle bounds based on the Chebyshev-Cantelli inequality, the C-bounds [Germain et al., 2015], and, at the same time, it improves on the oracle bound based on second order Markov's inequality introduced by Masegosa et al. [2020]. We also derive the PAC-Bayes-Bennett inequality, which we use for empirical estimation of the oracle bound. The PAC-Bayes-Bennett inequality improves on the PAC-Bayes-Bernstein inequality by Seldin et al. [2012]. We provide an empirical evaluation demonstrating that the new bounds can improve on the work by Masegosa et al. [2020]. Both the parametric form of the Chebyshev-Cantelli inequality and the PAC-Bayes-Bennett inequality may be of independent interest for the study of concentration of measure in other domains.
MIxBN: library for learning Bayesian networks from mixed data
Bubnova, Anna V., Deeva, Irina, Kalyuzhnaya, Anna V.
This paper describes a new library for learning Bayesian networks from data containing discrete and continuous variables (mixed data). In addition to the classical learning methods on discretized data, this library proposes its algorithm that allows structural learning and parameters learning from mixed data without discretization since data discretization leads to information loss. This algorithm based on mixed MI score function for structural learning, and also linear regression and Gaussian distribution approximation for parameters learning. The library also offers two algorithms for enumerating graph structures - the greedy Hill-Climbing algorithm and the evolutionary algorithm. Thus the key capabilities of the proposed library are as follows: (1) structural and parameters learning of a Bayesian network on discretized data, (2) structural and parameters learning of a Bayesian network on mixed data using the MI mixed score function and Gaussian approximation, (3) launching learning algorithms on one of two algorithms for enumerating graph structures - Hill-Climbing and the evolutionary algorithm. Since the need for mixed data representation comes from practical necessity, the advantages of our implementations are evaluated in the context of solving approximation and gap recovery problems on synthetic data and real datasets.