We present an overview of the second edition of the CheckThat! Lab at CLEF 2019. The lab featured two tasks in two different languages: English and Arabic. Task 1 (English) challenged the participating systems to predict which claims in a political debate or speech should be prioritized for fact-checking. Task 2 (Arabic) asked to (A) rank a given set of Web pages with respect to a check-worthy claim based on their usefulness for fact-checking that claim, (B) classify these same Web pages according to their degree of usefulness for fact-checking the target claim, (C) identify useful passages from these pages, and (D) use the useful pages to predict the claim's factuality. CheckThat! provided a full evaluation framework, consisting of data in English (derived from fact-checking sources) and Arabic (gathered and annotated from scratch) and evaluation based on mean average precision (MAP) and normalized discounted cumulative gain (nDCG) for ranking, and F1 for classification. A total of 47 teams registered to participate in this lab, and fourteen of them actually submitted runs (compared to nine last year). The evaluation results show that the most successful approaches to Task 1 used various neural networks and logistic regression. As for Task 2, learning-to-rank was used by the highest scoring runs for subtask A, while different classifiers were used in the other subtasks. We release to the research community all datasets from the lab as well as the evaluation scripts, which should enable further research in the important tasks of check-worthiness estimation and automatic claim verification.

The rampant adoption of ML methodologies has revealed that models are usually adopted to make decisions without taking into account the uncertainties in their predictions. More critically, they can be vulnerable to adversarial examples. Thus, we believe that developing ML systems that take into account predictive uncertainties and are robust against adversarial examples is a must for critical, real-world tasks. We start with a case study in retailing. We propose a robust implementation of the Nerlove-Arrow model using a Bayesian structural time series model. Its Bayesian nature facilitates incorporating prior information reflecting the manager's views, which can be updated with relevant data. However, this case adopted classical Bayesian techniques, such as the Gibbs sampler. Nowadays, the ML landscape is pervaded with neural networks and this chapter also surveys current developments in this sub-field. Then, we tackle the problem of scaling Bayesian inference to complex models and large data regimes. In the first part, we propose a unifying view of two different Bayesian inference algorithms, Stochastic Gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) and Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD), leading to improved and efficient novel sampling schemes. In the second part, we develop a framework to boost the efficiency of Bayesian inference in probabilistic models by embedding a Markov chain sampler within a variational posterior approximation. After that, we present an alternative perspective on adversarial classification based on adversarial risk analysis, and leveraging the scalable Bayesian approaches from chapter 2. In chapter 4 we turn to reinforcement learning, introducing Threatened Markov Decision Processes, showing the benefits of accounting for adversaries in RL while the agent learns.

There are 4 main types of Machine Learning Algorithm, the choice of the algorithm depends on the data type in the use case. It is an equation which describes a line, which represents relationship between input (x) and output (y) variables. By finding specific weightage for input variables called coefficients (b). Predictive modeling is primarily concerned when minimizing system errors or making the most accurate predictions possible at the expense of expansibility. It is a graphical representation of all possible solutions to a decision based on few conditions, it uses predictive models to achieve results, it is drawn upside down with its root at the top and it splits into branches based on a condition or internal node The end of the branch that doesn't not split, is the decision leaf.

Environmental health researchers may aim to identify exposure patterns that represent sources, product use, or behaviors that give rise to mixtures of potentially harmful environmental chemical exposures. We present Bayesian non-parametric non-negative matrix factorization (BN^2MF) as a novel method to identify patterns of chemical exposures when the number of patterns is not known a priori. We placed non-negative continuous priors on pattern loadings and individual scores to enhance interpretability and used a clever non-parametric sparse prior to estimate the pattern number. We further derived variational confidence intervals around estimates; this is a critical development because it quantifies the model's confidence in estimated patterns. These unique features contrast with existing pattern recognition methods employed in this field which are limited by user-specified pattern number, lack of interpretability of patterns in terms of human understanding, and lack of uncertainty quantification.

This paper introduces Logical Credal Networks, an expressive probabilistic logic that generalizes many prior models that combine logic and probability. Given imprecise information represented by probability bounds and conditional probability bounds of logic formulas, this logic specifies a set of probability distributions over all interpretations. On the one hand, our approach allows propositional and first-order logic formulas with few restrictions, e.g., without requiring acyclicity. On the other hand, it has a Markov condition similar to Bayesian networks and Markov random fields that is critical in real-world applications. Having both these properties makes this logic unique, and we investigate its performance on maximum a posteriori inference tasks, including solving Mastermind games with uncertainty and detecting credit card fraud. The results show that the proposed method outperforms existing approaches, and its advantage lies in aggregating multiple sources of imprecise information.

In the Bayesian reinforcement learning (RL) setting, a prior distribution over the unknown problem parameters -- the rewards and transitions -- is assumed, and a policy that optimizes the (posterior) expected return is sought. A common approximation, which has been recently popularized as meta-RL, is to train the agent on a sample of $N$ problem instances from the prior, with the hope that for large enough $N$, good generalization behavior to an unseen test instance will be obtained. In this work, we study generalization in Bayesian RL under the probably approximately correct (PAC) framework, using the method of algorithmic stability. Our main contribution is showing that by adding regularization, the optimal policy becomes stable in an appropriate sense. Most stability results in the literature build on strong convexity of the regularized loss -- an approach that is not suitable for RL as Markov decision processes (MDPs) are not convex. Instead, building on recent results of fast convergence rates for mirror descent in regularized MDPs, we show that regularized MDPs satisfy a certain quadratic growth criterion, which is sufficient to establish stability. This result, which may be of independent interest, allows us to study the effect of regularization on generalization in the Bayesian RL setting.

Learning from synthetic data is popular in avariety of robotic vision tasks such as object detection, becauselarge amount of data can be generated without annotationsby humans. However, when relying only on synthetic data,we encounter the well-known problem of the simulation-to-reality (Sim-to-Real) gap, which is hard to resolve completelyin practice. For such cases, real human-annotated data isnecessary to bridge this gap, and in our work we focus on howto acquire this data efficiently. Therefore, we propose a Sim-to-Real pipeline that relies on deep Bayesian active learningand aims to minimize the manual annotation efforts. We devisea learning paradigm that autonomously selects the data thatis considered useful for the human expert to annotate. Toachieve this, a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) object detectorproviding reliable uncertain estimates is adapted to infer theinformativeness of the unlabeled data, in order to performactive learning. In our experiments on two object detectiondata sets, we show that the labeling effort required to bridge thereality gap can be reduced to a small amount. Furthermore, wedemonstrate the practical effectiveness of this idea in a graspingtask on an assistive robot.

Bayesian Networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular over the last few decades as a tool for reasoning under uncertainty in fields as diverse as medicine, biology, epidemiology, economics and the social sciences. This is especially true in real-world areas where we seek to answer complex questions based on hypothetical evidence to determine actions for intervention. However, determining the graphical structure of a BN remains a major challenge, especially when modelling a problem under causal assumptions. Solutions to this problem include the automated discovery of BN graphs from data, constructing them based on expert knowledge, or a combination of the two. This paper provides a comprehensive review of combinatoric algorithms proposed for learning BN structure from data, describing 61 algorithms including prototypical, well-established and state-of-the-art approaches. The basic approach of each algorithm is described in consistent terms, and the similarities and differences between them highlighted. Methods of evaluating algorithms and their comparative performance are discussed including the consistency of claims made in the literature. Approaches for dealing with data noise in real-world datasets and incorporating expert knowledge into the learning process are also covered.

The increasing complexity and unpredictability of many ICT scenarios let us envision that future systems will have to dynamically learn how to act and adapt to face evolving situations with little or no a priori knowledge, both at the level of individual components and at the collective level. In other words, such systems should become able to autonomously develop models of themselves and of their environment. Autonomous development includes: learning models of own capabilities; learning how to act purposefully towards the achievement of specific goals; and learning how to act collectively, i.e., accounting for the presence of others. In this paper, we introduce the vision of autonomous development in ICT systems, by framing its key concepts and by illustrating suitable application domains. Then, we overview the many research areas that are contributing or can potentially contribute to the realization of the vision, and identify some key research challenges.

Recent \emph{Weak Supervision (WS)} approaches have had widespread success in easing the bottleneck of labeling training data for machine learning by synthesizing labels from multiple potentially noisy supervision sources. However, proper measurement and analysis of these approaches remain a challenge. First, datasets used in existing works are often private and/or custom, limiting standardization. Second, WS datasets with the same name and base data often vary in terms of the labels and weak supervision sources used, a significant "hidden" source of evaluation variance. Finally, WS studies often diverge in terms of the evaluation protocol and ablations used. To address these problems, we introduce a benchmark platform, \benchmark, for a thorough and standardized evaluation of WS approaches. It consists of 22 varied real-world datasets for classification and sequence tagging; a range of real, synthetic, and procedurally-generated weak supervision sources; and a modular, extensible framework for WS evaluation, including implementations for popular WS methods. We use \benchmark to conduct extensive comparisons over more than 100 method variants to demonstrate its efficacy as a benchmark platform. The code is available at \url{https://github.com/JieyuZ2/wrench}.