Numerical simulation of complex physical phenomena is a core enabling technology for digital twins, which are comprised of physical and virtual assets with a two-way flow of information: data from the physical asset is used to construct and/or calibrate the virtual asset (a numerical model), while numerical predictions from the virtual asset are used for control or decision-making for the physical asset [42]. To be viable for practical application, the virtual asset must be able to produce predictions rapidly and reliably; however, the underlying physics that are of interest for digital twin applications can typically only be accurately simulated using a large number of degrees of freedom, leading to computationally expensive numerical simulations. The explainability and computational efficiency of decisions made by the digital twin play a key role in safety-critical applications, making explainable artificial intelligence an essential ingredient [24]. Model reduction techniques are one such explainable scientific machine learning technique that construct low-dimensional systems, called reduced-order models (ROMs), to serve as computationally inexpensive surrogates for a high-dimensional physics simulation [4, 20]. This paper introduces a technique for adaptively constructing ROMs to emulate systems with parametric dependence, that is, systems whose behavior varies with some set of parameters, usually representing physical properties. We focus on systems where the parametric dependence manifests in the operators defining the model, not merely in initial conditions or external inputs.

Causal inference is a key research area in machine learning, yet confusion reigns over the tools needed to tackle it. There are prevalent claims in the machine learning literature that you need a bespoke causal framework or notation to answer causal questions. In this paper, we want to make it clear that you \emph{can} answer any causal inference question within the realm of probabilistic modelling and inference, without causal-specific tools or notation. Through concrete examples, we demonstrate how causal questions can be tackled by writing down the probability of everything. Lastly, we reinterpret causal tools as emerging from standard probabilistic modelling and inference, elucidating their necessity and utility.

Modern machine learning embeddings provide powerful compression of high-dimensional data, yet they typically destroy the geometric structure required for classical likelihood-based statistical inference. This paper develops a rigorous theory of likelihood-preserving embeddings: learned representations that can replace raw data in likelihood-based workflows -- hypothesis testing, confidence interval construction, model selection -- without altering inferential conclusions. We introduce the Likelihood-Ratio Distortion metric $Δ_n$, which measures the maximum error in log-likelihood ratios induced by an embedding. Our main theoretical contribution is the Hinge Theorem, which establishes that controlling $Δ_n$ is necessary and sufficient for preserving inference. Specifically, if the distortion satisfies $Δ_n = o_p(1)$, then (i) all likelihood-ratio based tests and Bayes factors are asymptotically preserved, and (ii) surrogate maximum likelihood estimators are asymptotically equivalent to full-data MLEs. We prove an impossibility result showing that universal likelihood preservation requires essentially invertible embeddings, motivating the need for model-class-specific guarantees. We then provide a constructive framework using neural networks as approximate sufficient statistics, deriving explicit bounds connecting training loss to inferential guarantees. Experiments on Gaussian and Cauchy distributions validate the sharp phase transition predicted by exponential family theory, and applications to distributed clinical inference demonstrate practical utility.

Across fields such as machine learning, social science, geography, considerable attention has been given to models that factorize a nonnegative matrix into the product of two or three matrices, subject to nonnegative or row-sum-to-1 constraints. Although these models are to a large extend similar or even equivalent, they are presented under different names, and their similarity is not well known. This paper highlights similarities among five popular models, latent budget analysis (LBA), latent class analysis (LCA), end-member analysis (EMA), probabilistic latent semantic analysis (PLSA), and nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF). We focus on an essential issue-identifiability-of these models and prove that the solution of LBA, EMA, LCA, PLSA is unique if and only if the solution of NMF is unique. We also provide a brief review for algorithms of these models. We illustrate the models with a time budget dataset from social science, and end the paper with a discussion of closely related models such as archetypal analysis.

Singular learning theory (SLT) \citep{watanabe2009algebraic,watanabe2018mathematical} provides a rigorous asymptotic framework for Bayesian models with non-identifiable parameterizations, yet the statistical meaning of its second-order invariant, the \emph{singular fluctuation}, has remained unclear. In this work, we show that singular fluctuation admits a precise and natural interpretation as a \emph{specific heat}: the second derivative of the Bayesian free energy with respect to temperature. Equivalently, it measures the posterior variance of the log-likelihood observable under the tempered Gibbs posterior. We further introduce a collection of related thermodynamic quantities, including entropy flow, prior susceptibility, and cross-susceptibility, that together provide a detailed geometric diagnosis of singular posterior structure. Through extensive numerical experiments spanning discrete symmetries, boundary singularities, continuous gauge freedoms, and piecewise (ReLU) models, we demonstrate that these thermodynamic signatures cleanly distinguish singularity types, exhibit stable finite-sample behavior, and reveal phase-transition--like phenomena as temperature varies. We also show empirically that the widely used WAIC estimator \citep{watanabe2010asymptotic, watanabe2013widely} is exactly twice the thermodynamic specific heat at unit temperature, clarifying its robustness in singular models.Our results establish a concrete bridge between singular learning theory and statistical mechanics, providing both theoretical insight and practical diagnostics for modern Bayesian models.

Vision-language models, such as CLIP, have shown impressive generalization capacities when using appropriate text descriptions.

We study the differences arising from merging predictors in the causal and anti-causal directions using the same data.

The prediction of time-changing variances is an important task in the modeling of financial data. Standard econometric models are often limited as they assume rigid functional relationships for the evolution of the variance. Moreover, functional parameters are usually learned by maximum likelihood, which can lead to overfitting. To address these problems we introduce GP-Vol, a novel non-parametric model for time-changing variances based on Gaussian Processes. This new model can capture highly flexible functional relationships for the variances. Furthermore, we introduce a new online algorithm for fast inference in GP-Vol. This method is much faster than current offline inference procedures and it avoids overfitting problems by following a fully Bayesian approach. Experiments with financial data show that GP-Vol performs significantly better than current standard alternatives.

Image captioning aims to describe visual content in natural language. As'a picture is worth a thousand words', there could be various correct descriptions for an image. However, with maximum likelihood estimation as the training objective, the captioning model is penalized whenever its prediction mismatches with the label. For instance, when the model predicts a word expressing richer semantics than the label, it will be penalized and optimized to prefer more concise expressions, referred to as . In contrast, predictions that are more concise than labels lead to . Such conflicting optimization directions could eventually result in the model generating general descriptions. In this work, we introduce Semipermeable MaxImum Likelihood Estimation (SMILE), which allows richness optimization while blocking conciseness optimization, thus encouraging the model to generate longer captions with more details. Extensive experiments on two mainstream image captioning datasets MSCOCO and Flickr30K demonstrate that SMILE significantly enhances the descriptiveness of generated captions. We further provide in-depth investigations to facilitate a better understanding of how SMILE works.