Surface roughness is primary measure of pavement performance that has been associated with ride quality and vehicle operating costs. Of all the surface roughness indicators, the International Roughness Index (IRI) is the most widely used. However, it is costly to measure IRI, and for this reason, certain road classes are excluded from IRI measurements at a network level. Higher levels of distresses are generally associated with higher roughness. However, for a given roughness level, pavement data typically exhibits a great deal of variability in the distress types, density, and severity. It is hypothesized that it is feasible to estimate the IRI of a pavement section given its distress types and their respective densities and severities. To investigate this hypothesis, this paper uses data from in-service pavements and machine learning methods to ascertain the extent to which IRI can be predicted given a set of pavement attributes. The results suggest that machine learning can be used reliably to estimate IRI based on the measured distress types and their respective densities and severities. The analysis also showed that IRI estimated this way depends on the pavement type and functional class. The paper also includes an exploratory section that addresses the reverse situation, that is, estimating the probability of pavement distress type distribution and occurrence severity/extent based on a given roughness level.

Greedy algorithms have long been a workhorse for learning graphical models, and more broadly for learning statistical models with sparse structure. In the context of learning directed acyclic graphs, greedy algorithms are popular despite their worst-case exponential runtime. In practice, however, they are very efficient. We provide new insight into this phenomenon by studying a general greedy score-based algorithm for learning DAGs. Unlike edge-greedy algorithms such as the popular GES and hill-climbing algorithms, our approach is vertex-greedy and requires at most a polynomial number of score evaluations. We then show how recent polynomial-time algorithms for learning DAG models are a special case of this algorithm, thereby illustrating how these order-based algorithms can be rigourously interpreted as score-based algorithms. This observation suggests new score functions and optimality conditions based on the duality between Bregman divergences and exponential families, which we explore in detail. Explicit sample and computational complexity bounds are derived. Finally, we provide extensive experiments suggesting that this algorithm indeed optimizes the score in a variety of settings.

Traditional methods for unsupervised learning of finite mixture models require to evaluate the likelihood of all components of the mixture. This becomes computationally prohibitive when the number of components is large, as it is, for example, in the sum-product (transform) networks. Therefore, we propose to apply a combination of the expectation maximization and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to evaluate only a small number of, stochastically sampled, components, thus substantially reducing the computational cost. The Markov chain of component assignments is sequentially generated across the algorithm's iterations, having a non-stationary target distribution whose parameters vary via a gradient-descent scheme. We put emphasis on generality of our method, equipping it with the ability to train both shallow and deep mixture models which involve complex, and possibly nonlinear, transformations. The performance of our method is illustrated in a variety of synthetic and real-data contexts, considering deep models, such as mixtures of normalizing flows and sum-product (transform) networks.

Deep Belief Networks (DBN) and Autoencoders, Let's take a look at DBNs and how they are created on top of RBMs. If you haven't read the previous posts yet, you can read them by clicking the below links. A DBN is a network that was created to overcome a problem that existed in standard artificial neural networks. Backpropagation is a phenomenon that might result in "local minima" or "vanishing gradients." DBN is designed to solve this problem by stacking numerous RBMs.

MC Dropout is a mainstream "free lunch" method in medical imaging for approximate Bayesian computations (ABC). Its appeal is to solve out-of-the-box the daunting task of ABC and uncertainty quantification in Neural Networks (NNs); to fall within the variational inference (VI) framework; and to propose a highly multimodal, faithful predictive posterior. We question the properties of MC Dropout for approximate inference, as in fact MC Dropout changes the Bayesian model; its predictive posterior assigns $0$ probability to the true model on closed-form benchmarks; the multimodality of its predictive posterior is not a property of the true predictive posterior but a design artefact. To address the need for VI on arbitrary models, we share a generic VI engine within the pytorch framework. The code includes a carefully designed implementation of structured (diagonal plus low-rank) multivariate normal variational families, and mixtures thereof. It is intended as a go-to no-free-lunch approach, addressing shortcomings of mean-field VI with an adjustable trade-off between expressivity and computational complexity.

Topic models provide a useful text-mining tool for learning, extracting and discovering latent structures in large text corpora. Although a plethora of methods have been proposed for topic modeling, a formal theoretical investigation on the statistical identifiability and accuracy of latent topic estimation is lacking in the literature. In this paper, we propose a maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of latent topics based on a specific integrated likelihood, which is naturally connected to the concept of volume minimization in computational geometry. Theoretically, we introduce a new set of geometric conditions for topic model identifiability, which are weaker than conventional separability conditions relying on the existence of anchor words or pure topic documents. We conduct finite-sample error analysis for the proposed estimator and discuss the connection of our results with existing ones. We conclude with empirical studies on both simulated and real datasets.

We introduce SMProbLog, a generalization of the probabilistic logic programming language ProbLog. A ProbLog program defines a distribution over logic programs by specifying for each clause the probability that it belongs to a randomly sampled program, and these probabilities are mutually independent. The semantics of ProbLog is given by the success probability of a query, which corresponds to the probability that the query succeeds in a randomly sampled program. It is well-defined when each random sample uniquely determines the truth values of all logical atoms. Argumentation problems, however, represent an interesting practical application where this is not always the case. SMProbLog generalizes the semantics of ProbLog to the setting where multiple truth assignments are possible for a randomly sampled program, and implements the corresponding algorithms for both inference and learning tasks. We then show how this novel framework can be used to reason about probabilistic argumentation problems. Therefore, the key contribution of this paper are: a more general semantics for ProbLog programs, its implementation into a probabilistic programming framework for both inference and parameter learning, and a novel approach to probabilistic argumentation problems based on such framework.

Despite its successes in various machine learning and data science tasks, crowdsourcing can be susceptible to attacks from dedicated adversaries. This work investigates the effects of adversaries on crowdsourced classification, under the popular Dawid and Skene model. The adversaries are allowed to deviate arbitrarily from the considered crowdsourcing model, and may potentially cooperate. To address this scenario, we develop an approach that leverages the structure of second-order moments of annotator responses, to identify large numbers of adversaries, and mitigate their impact on the crowdsourcing task. The potential of the proposed approach is empirically demonstrated on synthetic and real crowdsourcing datasets.

Merging datafiles containing information on overlapping sets of entities is a challenging task in the absence of unique identifiers, and is further complicated when some entities are duplicated in the datafiles. Most approaches to this problem have focused on linking two files assumed to be free of duplicates, or on detecting which records in a single file are duplicates. However, it is common in practice to encounter scenarios that fit somewhere in between or beyond these two settings. We propose a Bayesian approach for the general setting of multifile record linkage and duplicate detection. We use a novel partition representation to propose a structured prior for partitions that can incorporate prior information about the data collection processes of the datafiles in a flexible manner, and extend previous models for comparison data to accommodate the multifile setting. We also introduce a family of loss functions to derive Bayes estimates of partitions that allow uncertain portions of the partitions to be left unresolved. The performance of our proposed methodology is explored through extensive simulations. Code implementing the methodology is available at https://github.com/aleshing/multilink .

We show how to apply Sobol's method of global sensitivity analysis to measure the influence exerted by a set of nodes' evidence on a quantity of interest expressed by a Bayesian network. Our method exploits the network structure so as to transform the problem of Sobol index estimation into that of marginalization inference. This way, we can efficiently compute indices for networks where brute-force or Monte Carlo based estimators for variance-based sensitivity analysis would require millions of costly samples. Moreover, our method gives exact results when exact inference is used, and also supports the case of correlated inputs. The proposed algorithm is inspired by the field of tensor networks, and generalizes earlier tensor sensitivity techniques from the acyclic to the cyclic case. We demonstrate the method on three medium to large Bayesian networks that cover the areas of project risk management and reliability engineering.