After the user provides a few examples of desired outcomes, MURAL automatically infers a reward function that takes into account these examples and the agent's uncertainty for each state. Although reinforcement learning has shown success in domains such as robotics, chip placement and playing video games, it is usually intractable in its most general form. In particular, deciding when and how to visit new states in the hopes of learning more about the environment can be challenging, especially when the reward signal is uninformative. These questions of reward specification and exploration are closely connected -- the more directed and "well shaped" a reward function is, the easier the problem of exploration becomes. The answer to the question of how to explore most effectively is likely to be closely informed by the particular choice of how we specify rewards.

Modelling dependencies between climate extremes is important for climate risk assessment, for instance when allocating emergency management funds. In statistics, multivariate extreme value theory is often used to model spatial extremes. However, most commonly used approaches require strong assumptions and are either too simplistic or over-parametrised. From a machine learning perspective, Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) are a powerful tool to model dependencies in high-dimensional spaces. Yet in the standard setting, GANs do not well represent dependencies in the extremes. Here we combine GANs with extreme value theory (evtGAN) to model spatial dependencies in summer maxima of temperature and winter maxima in precipitation over a large part of western Europe. We use data from a stationary 2000-year climate model simulation to validate the approach and explore its sensitivity to small sample sizes. Our results show that evtGAN outperforms classical GANs and standard statistical approaches to model spatial extremes. Already with about 50 years of data, which corresponds to commonly available climate records, we obtain reasonably good performance. In general, dependencies between temperature extremes are better captured than dependencies between precipitation extremes due to the high spatial coherence in temperature fields. Our approach can be applied to other climate variables and can be used to emulate climate models when running very long simulations to determine dependencies in the extremes is deemed infeasible.

Linear structural causal models (SCMs) -- in which each observed variable is generated by a subset of the other observed variables as well as a subset of the exogenous sources -- are pervasive in causal inference and casual discovery. However, for the task of causal discovery, existing work almost exclusively focus on the submodel where each observed variable is associated with a distinct source with non-zero variance. This results in the restriction that no observed variable can deterministically depend on other observed variables or latent confounders. In this paper, we extend the results on structure learning by focusing on a subclass of linear SCMs which do not have this property, i.e., models in which observed variables can be causally affected by any subset of the sources, and are allowed to be a deterministic function of other observed variables or latent confounders. This allows for a more realistic modeling of influence or information propagation in systems. We focus on the task of causal discovery form observational data generated from a member of this subclass. We derive a set of necessary and sufficient conditions for unique identifiability of the causal structure. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that gives identifiability results for causal discovery under both latent confounding and deterministic relationships. Further, we propose an algorithm for recovering the underlying causal structure when the aforementioned conditions are satisfied. We validate our theoretical results both on synthetic and real datasets.

From the previous article, we know that Bayesian Neural Network would treat the model weights and outputs as variables. Instead of finding a set of optimal estimates, we are fitting the probability distributions for them. But the problem is "How can we know what their distributions look like?" To answer this, you have to learn what prior, posterior, and Bayes' theorem are. In the following, we will use an example for illustration.

We present a mathematical framework and computational methods to optimally design a finite number of sequential experiments. We formulate this sequential optimal experimental design (sOED) problem as a finite-horizon partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) in a Bayesian setting and with information-theoretic utilities. It is built to accommodate continuous random variables, general non-Gaussian posteriors, and expensive nonlinear forward models. sOED then seeks an optimal design policy that incorporates elements of both feedback and lookahead, generalizing the suboptimal batch and greedy designs. We solve for the sOED policy numerically via policy gradient (PG) methods from reinforcement learning, and derive and prove the PG expression for sOED. Adopting an actor-critic approach, we parameterize the policy and value functions using deep neural networks and improve them using gradient estimates produced from simulated episodes of designs and observations. The overall PG-sOED method is validated on a linear-Gaussian benchmark, and its advantages over batch and greedy designs are demonstrated through a contaminant source inversion problem in a convection-diffusion field.

We study the problem of constructing coresets for clustering problems with time series data. This problem has gained importance across many fields including biology, medicine, and economics due to the proliferation of sensors facilitating real-time measurement and rapid drop in storage costs. In particular, we consider the setting where the time series data on $N$ entities is generated from a Gaussian mixture model with autocorrelations over $k$ clusters in $\mathbb{R}^d$. Our main contribution is an algorithm to construct coresets for the maximum likelihood objective for this mixture model. Our algorithm is efficient, and under a mild boundedness assumption on the covariance matrices of the underlying Gaussians, the size of the coreset is independent of the number of entities $N$ and the number of observations for each entity, and depends only polynomially on $k$, $d$ and $1/\varepsilon$, where $\varepsilon$ is the error parameter. We empirically assess the performance of our coreset with synthetic data.

Dynamic Linear Models (DLMs) are commonly employed for time series analysis due to their versatile structure, simple recursive updating, and probabilistic forecasting. However, the options for count time series are limited: Gaussian DLMs require continuous data, while Poisson-based alternatives often lack sufficient modeling flexibility. We introduce a novel methodology for count time series by warping a Gaussian DLM. The warping function has two components: a transformation operator that provides distributional flexibility and a rounding operator that ensures the correct support for the discrete data-generating process. Importantly, we develop conjugate inference for the warped DLM, which enables analytic and recursive updates for the state space filtering and smoothing distributions. We leverage these results to produce customized and efficient computing strategies for inference and forecasting, including Monte Carlo simulation for offline analysis and an optimal particle filter for online inference. This framework unifies and extends a variety of discrete time series models and is valid for natural counts, rounded values, and multivariate observations. Simulation studies illustrate the excellent forecasting capabilities of the warped DLM. The proposed approach is applied to a multivariate time series of daily overdose counts and demonstrates both modeling and computational successes.

We study acquisition functions for active learning (AL) for text classification. The Expected Loss Reduction (ELR) method focuses on a Bayesian estimate of the reduction in classification error, recently updated with Mean Objective Cost of Uncertainty (MOCU). We convert the ELR framework to estimate the increase in (strictly proper) scores like log probability or negative mean square error, which we call Bayesian Estimate of Mean Proper Scores (BEMPS). We also prove convergence results borrowing techniques used with MOCU. In order to allow better experimentation with the new acquisition functions, we develop a complementary batch AL algorithm, which encourages diversity in the vector of expected changes in scores for unlabelled data. To allow high performance text classifiers, we combine ensembling and dynamic validation set construction on pretrained language models. Extensive experimental evaluation then explores how these different acquisition functions perform. The results show that the use of mean square error and log probability with BEMPS yields robust acquisition functions, which consistently outperform the others tested.

One's ability to learn a generative model of the world without supervision depends on the extent to which one can construct abstract knowledge representations that generalize across experiences. To this end, capturing an accurate statistical structure from observational data provides useful inductive biases that can be transferred to novel environments. Here, we tackle the problem of learning to control dynamical systems by applying Bayesian nonparametric methods, which is applied to solve visual servoing tasks. This is accomplished by first learning a state space representation, then inferring environmental dynamics and improving the policies through imagined future trajectories. Bayesian nonparametric models provide automatic model adaptation, which not only combats underfitting and overfitting, but also allows the model's unbounded dimension to be both flexible and computationally tractable. By employing Gaussian processes to discover latent world dynamics, we mitigate common data efficiency issues observed in reinforcement learning and avoid introducing explicit model bias by describing the system's dynamics. Our algorithm jointly learns a world model and policy by optimizing a variational lower bound of a log-likelihood with respect to the expected free energy minimization objective function. Finally, we compare the performance of our model with the state-of-the-art alternatives for continuous control tasks in simulated environments.

A Bayesian Network (BN) is a probabilistic graphical model consisting of a directed acyclic graph (DAG), where each node is a random variable represented as a function of its parents. We present a novel approach capable of learning the global DAG structure of a BN and modelling linear and non-linear local relationships between variables. We achieve this by a combination of feature selection to reduce the search space for local relationships, and extending the widely used score-and-search approach to support modelling relationships between variables as Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS). MARS are polynomial regression models represented as piecewise spline functions - this lets us model non-linear relationships without the risk of overfitting that a single polynomial regression model would bring. The combination allows us to learn relationships in all bnlearn benchmark instances within minutes and enables us to scale to networks of over a thousand nodes