In many practical applications of RL, it is expensive to observe state transitions from the environment. For example, in the problem of plasma control for nuclear fusion, computing the next state for a given state-action pair requires querying an expensive transition function which can lead to many hours of computer simulation or dollars of scientific research. Such expensive data collection prohibits application of standard RL algorithms which usually require a large number of observations to learn. In this work, we address the problem of efficiently learning a policy while making a minimal number of state-action queries to the transition function. In particular, we leverage ideas from Bayesian optimal experimental design to guide the selection of state-action queries for efficient learning. We propose an acquisition function that quantifies how much information a state-action pair would provide about the optimal solution to a Markov decision process. At each iteration, our algorithm maximizes this acquisition function, to choose the most informative state-action pair to be queried, thus yielding a data-efficient RL approach. We experiment with a variety of simulated continuous control problems and show that our approach learns an optimal policy with up to $5$ -- $1,000\times$ less data than model-based RL baselines and $10^3$ -- $10^5\times$ less data than model-free RL baselines. We also provide several ablated comparisons which point to substantial improvements arising from the principled method of obtaining data.

Uncertainty estimation (UE) techniques -- such as the Gaussian process (GP), Bayesian neural networks (BNN), Monte Carlo dropout (MCDropout) -- aim to improve the interpretability of machine learning models by assigning an estimated uncertainty value to each of their prediction outputs. However, since too high uncertainty estimates can have fatal consequences in practice, this paper analyzes the above techniques. Firstly, we show that GP methods always yield high uncertainty estimates on out of distribution (OOD) data. Secondly, we show on a 2D toy example that both BNNs and MCDropout do not give high uncertainty estimates on OOD samples. Finally, we show empirically that this pitfall of BNNs and MCDropout holds on real world datasets as well. Our insights (i) raise awareness for the more cautious use of currently popular UE methods in Deep Learning, (ii) encourage the development of UE methods that approximate GP-based methods -- instead of BNNs and MCDropout, and (iii) our empirical setups can be used for verifying the OOD performances of any other UE method. The source code is available at https://github.com/epfml/uncertainity-estimation.

For personalized ranking models, the well-calibrated probability of an item being preferred by a user has great practical value. While existing work shows promising results in image classification, probability calibration has not been much explored for personalized ranking. In this paper, we aim to estimate the calibrated probability of how likely a user will prefer an item. We investigate various parametric distributions and propose two parametric calibration methods, namely Gaussian calibration and Gamma calibration. Each proposed method can be seen as a post-processing function that maps the ranking scores of pre-trained models to well-calibrated preference probabilities, without affecting the recommendation performance. We also design the unbiased empirical risk minimization framework that guides the calibration methods to learning of true preference probability from the biased user-item interaction dataset. Extensive evaluations with various personalized ranking models on real-world datasets show that both the proposed calibration methods and the unbiased empirical risk minimization significantly improve the calibration performance.

Kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) is a well-recognized nonlinear dimensionality reduction method that has been widely used in nonlinear fault detection tasks. As a kernel trick-based method, KPCA inherits two major problems. First, the form and the parameters of the kernel function are usually selected blindly, depending seriously on trial-and-error. As a result, there may be serious performance degradation in case of inappropriate selections. Second, at the online monitoring stage, KPCA has much computational burden and poor real-time performance, because the kernel method requires to leverage all the offline training data. In this work, to deal with the two drawbacks, a learnable faster realization of the conventional KPCA is proposed. The core idea is to parameterize all feasible kernel functions using the novel nonlinear DAE-FE (deep autoencoder based feature extraction) framework and propose DAE-PCA (deep autoencoder based principal component analysis) approach in detail. The proposed DAE-PCA method is proved to be equivalent to KPCA but has more advantage in terms of automatic searching of the most suitable nonlinear high-dimensional space according to the inputs. Furthermore, the online computational efficiency improves by approximately 100 times compared with the conventional KPCA. With the Tennessee Eastman (TE) process benchmark, the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method is illustrated.

In statistical decision theory, a model is said to be Pareto optimal (or admissible) if no other model carries less risk for at least one state of nature while presenting no more risk for others. How can you rationally aggregate/combine a finite set of Pareto optimal models while preserving Pareto efficiency? This question is nontrivial because weighted model averaging does not, in general, preserve Pareto efficiency. This paper presents an answer in four logical steps: (1) A rational aggregation rule should preserve Pareto efficiency (2) Due to the complete class theorem, Pareto optimal models must be Bayesian, i.e., they minimize a risk where the true state of nature is averaged with respect to some prior. Therefore each Pareto optimal model can be associated with a prior, and Pareto efficiency can be maintained by aggregating Pareto optimal models through their priors. (3) A prior can be interpreted as a preference ranking over models: prior $\pi$ prefers model A over model B if the average risk of A is lower than the average risk of B. (4) A rational/consistent aggregation rule should preserve this preference ranking: If both priors $\pi$ and $\pi'$ prefer model A over model B, then the prior obtained by aggregating $\pi$ and $\pi'$ must also prefer A over B. Under these four steps, we show that all rational/consistent aggregation rules are as follows: Give each individual Pareto optimal model a weight, introduce a weak order/ranking over the set of Pareto optimal models, aggregate a finite set of models S as the model associated with the prior obtained as the weighted average of the priors of the highest-ranked models in S. This result shows that all rational/consistent aggregation rules must follow a generalization of hierarchical Bayesian modeling. Following our main result, we present applications to Kernel smoothing, time-depreciating models, and voting mechanisms.

In probability, Bayes is a type of conditional probability. It predicts the event based on an event that has already happened. You can use Naive Bayes as a supervised machine learning method for predicting the event based on the evidence present in your dataset. In this tutorial, you will learn how to classify the email as spam or not using the Naive Bayes Classifier. Before doing coding demonstration, Let's know about the Naive Bayes in a brief.

Multiple techniques for producing calibrated predictive probabilities using deep neural networks in supervised learning settings have emerged that leverage approaches to ensemble diverse solutions discovered during cyclic training or training from multiple random starting points (deep ensembles). However, only a limited amount of work has investigated the utility of exploring the local region around each diverse solution (posterior mode). Using three well-known deep architectures on the CIFAR-10 dataset, we evaluate several simple methods for exploring local regions of the weight space with respect to Brier score, accuracy, and expected calibration error. We consider both Bayesian inference techniques (variational inference and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo applied to the softmax output layer) as well as utilizing the stochastic gradient descent trajectory near optima. While adding separate modes to the ensemble uniformly improves performance, we show that the simple mode exploration methods considered here produce little to no improvement over ensembles without mode exploration.

Local volatility is a versatile option pricing model due to its state dependent diffusion coefficient. Calibration is, however, non-trivial as it involves both proposing a hypothesis model of the latent function and a method for fitting it to data. In this paper we present novel Bayesian inference with Gaussian process priors. We obtain a rich representation of the local volatility function with a probabilistic notion of uncertainty attached to the calibrate. We propose an inference algorithm and apply our approach to S&P 500 market data.

Deep learning has achieved many breakthroughs in modern classification tasks. Numerous architectures have been proposed for different data structures but when it comes to the loss function, the cross-entropy loss is the predominant choice. Recently, several alternative losses have seen revived interests for deep classifiers. In particular, empirical evidence seems to promote square loss but a theoretical justification is still lacking. In this work, we contribute to the theoretical understanding of square loss in classification by systematically investigating how it performs for overparametrized neural networks in the neural tangent kernel (NTK) regime. Interesting properties regarding the generalization error, robustness, and calibration error are revealed. We consider two cases, according to whether classes are separable or not. In the general non-separable case, fast convergence rate is established for both misclassification rate and calibration error. When classes are separable, the misclassification rate improves to be exponentially fast. Further, the resulting margin is proven to be lower bounded away from zero, providing theoretical guarantees for robustness. We expect our findings to hold beyond the NTK regime and translate to practical settings. To this end, we conduct extensive empirical studies on practical neural networks, demonstrating the effectiveness of square loss in both synthetic low-dimensional data and real image data. Comparing to cross-entropy, square loss has comparable generalization error but noticeable advantages in robustness and model calibration.

Causal discovery aims to learn a causal graph from observational data. To date, most causal discovery methods require data to be stored in a central server. However, data owners gradually refuse to share their personalized data to avoid privacy leakage, making this task more troublesome by cutting off the first step. A puzzle arises: $\textit{how do we infer causal relations from decentralized data?}$ In this paper, with the additive noise model assumption of data, we take the first step in developing a gradient-based learning framework named DAG-Shared Federated Causal Discovery (DS-FCD), which can learn the causal graph without directly touching local data and naturally handle the data heterogeneity. DS-FCD benefits from a two-level structure of each local model. The first level learns the causal graph and communicates with the server to get model information from other clients, while the second level approximates causal mechanisms and personally updates from its own data to accommodate the data heterogeneity. Moreover, DS-FCD formulates the overall learning task as a continuous optimization problem by taking advantage of an equality acyclicity constraint, which can be naturally solved by gradient descent methods. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets verify the efficacy of the proposed method.