We introduce ADAPQUEST, a software tool written in Java for the development of adaptive questionnaires based on Bayesian networks. Adaptiveness is intended here as the dynamical choice of the question sequence on the basis of an evolving model of the skill level of the test taker. Bayesian networks offer a flexible and highly interpretable framework to describe such testing process, especially when coping with multiple skills. ADAPQUEST embeds dedicated elicitation strategies to simplify the elicitation of the questionnaire parameters. An application of this tool for the diagnosis of mental disorders is also discussed together with some implementation details.

In this work, we examine the problem of online decision making under uncertainty, which we formulate as planning in the belief space. Maintaining beliefs (i.e., distributions) over high-dimensional states (e.g., entire trajectories) was not only shown to significantly improve accuracy, but also allows planning with information-theoretic objectives, as required for the tasks of active SLAM and information gathering. Nonetheless, planning under this "smoothing" paradigm holds a high computational complexity, which makes it challenging for online solution. Thus, we suggest the following idea: before planning, perform a standalone state variable reordering procedure on the initial belief, and "push forwards" all the predicted loop closing variables. Since the initial variable order determines which subset of them would be affected by incoming updates, such reordering allows us to minimize the total number of affected variables, and reduce the computational complexity of candidate evaluation during planning. We call this approach PIVOT: Predictive Incremental Variable Ordering Tactic. Applying this tactic can also improve the state inference efficiency; if we maintain the PIVOT order after the planning session, then we should similarly reduce the cost of loop closures, when they actually occur. To demonstrate its effectiveness, we applied PIVOT in a realistic active SLAM simulation, where we managed to significantly reduce the computation time of both the planning and inference sessions. The approach is applicable to general distributions, and induces no loss in accuracy.

This paper studies the regret minimization problem for finite horizon, episodic reinforcement learning (RL) with infinitely large state and action spaces. Empirically, RL has achieved success in diverse domains, even when the problem size (measured in the number of states and actions) explodes [35, 44, 28]. The key to developing sample-efficient algorithms is to leverage function approximation, enabling us to generalize across different state-action pairs. Much theoretical progress has been made towards understanding function approximation in RL. Existing theory typically requires strong linearity assumptions on transition dynamics [e.g., 55, 26, 10, 36] or action-value functions [e.g., 30, 57] of the Markov Decision Process (MDP). However, most real world problems are nonlinear, and our theoretical understanding of these settings remains limited. Thus, we ask the question: Can we design provably efficient RL algorithms in nonlinear environments? Recently, Chowdhury et al. [13] introduced a nonlinear setting where the state-transition measures are finitely parameterized exponential family models, and they proposed to estimate model parameters via maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). The exponential family is a well-studied and powerful statistical framework, so it is a natural model class to consider beyond linear models.

Active learning has demonstrated data efficiency in many fields. Existing active learning algorithms, especially in the context of deep Bayesian active models, rely heavily on the quality of uncertainty estimations of the model. However, such uncertainty estimates could be heavily biased, especially with limited and imbalanced training data. In this paper, we propose BALanCe, a Bayesian deep active learning framework that mitigates the effect of such biases. Concretely, BALanCe employs a novel acquisition function which leverages the structure captured by equivalence hypothesis classes and facilitates differentiation among different equivalence classes. Intuitively, each equivalence class consists of instantiations of deep models with similar predictions, and BALanCe adaptively adjusts the size of the equivalence classes as learning progresses. Besides the fully sequential setting, we further propose Batch-BALanCe -- a generalization of the sequential algorithm to the batched setting -- to efficiently select batches of training examples that are jointly effective for model improvement. We show that Batch-BALanCe achieves state-of-the-art performance on several benchmark datasets for active learning, and that both algorithms can effectively handle realistic challenges that often involve multi-class and imbalanced data.

Many tasks in Natural Language Processing (NLP) and Computer Vision (CV) offer evidence that humans disagree, from objective tasks such as part-of-speech tagging to more subjective tasks such as classifying an image or deciding whether a proposition follows from certain premises. While most learning in artificial intelligence (AI) still relies on the assumption that a single (gold) interpretation exists for each item, a growing body of research aims to develop learning methods that do not rely on this assumption. In this survey, we review the evidence for disagreements on NLP and CV tasks, focusing on tasks for which substantial datasets containing this information have been created. We discuss the most popular approaches to training models from datasets containing multiple judgments potentially in disagreement. We systematically compare these different approaches by training them with each of the available datasets, considering several ways to evaluate the resulting models. Finally, we discuss the results in depth, focusing on four key research questions, and assess how the type of evaluation and the characteristics of a dataset determine the answers to these questions. Our results suggest, first of all, that even if we abandon the assumption of a gold standard, it is still essential to reach a consensus on how to evaluate models. This is because the relative performance of the various training methods is critically affected by the chosen form of evaluation. Secondly, we observed a strong dataset effect. With substantial datasets, providing many judgments by high-quality coders for each item, training directly with soft labels achieved better results than training from aggregated or even gold labels. This result holds for both hard and soft evaluation. But when the above conditions do not hold, leveraging both gold and soft labels generally achieved the best results in the hard evaluation. All datasets and models employed in this paper are freely available as supplementary materials.

A central concept in active inference is that the internal states of a physical system parametrise probability measures over states of the external world. These can be seen as an agent's beliefs, expressed as a Bayesian prior or posterior. Here we begin the development of a general theory that would tell us when it is appropriate to interpret states as representing beliefs in this way. We focus on the case in which a system can be interpreted as performing either Bayesian filtering or Bayesian inference. We provide formal definitions of what it means for such an interpretation to exist, using techniques from category theory.

This paper discusses the estimation of the generalization gap, the difference between a generalization error and an empirical error, for overparameterized models (e.g., neural networks). We first show that a functional variance, a key concept in defining a widely-applicable information criterion, characterizes the generalization gap even in overparameterized settings where a conventional theory cannot be applied. We also propose a computationally efficient approximation of the function variance, the Langevin approximation of the functional variance (Langevin FV). This method leverages only the $1$st-order gradient of the squared loss function, without referencing the $2$nd-order gradient; this ensures that the computation is efficient and the implementation is consistent with gradient-based optimization algorithms. We demonstrate the Langevin FV numerically by estimating the generalization gaps of overparameterized linear regression and non-linear neural network models.

The field of artificial intelligence (AI) is devoted to the creation of artificial decision-makers that can perform (at least) on par with the human counterparts on a domain of interest. Unlike the agents in traditional AI, the agents in artificial general intelligence (AGI) are required to replicate human intelligence in almost every domain of interest. Moreover, an AGI agent should be able to achieve this without (virtually any) further changes, retraining, or fine-tuning of the parameters. The real world is non-stationary, non-ergodic, and non-Markovian: we, humans, can neither revisit our past nor are the most recent observations sufficient statistics. Yet, we excel at a variety of complex tasks. Many of these tasks require longterm planning. We can associate this success to our natural faculty to abstract away task-irrelevant information from our overwhelming sensory experience. We make task-specific mental models of the world without much effort. Due to this ability to abstract, we can plan on a significantly compact representation of a task without much loss of performance. Not only this, we also abstract our actions to produce high-level plans: the level of action-abstraction can be anywhere between small muscle movements to a mental notion of "doing an action". It is natural to assume that any AGI agent competing with humans (at every plausible domain) should also have these abilities to abstract its experiences and actions. This thesis is an inquiry into the existence of such abstractions which aid efficient planing for a wide range of domains, and most importantly, these abstractions come with some optimality guarantees.

We introduce Reactive Message Passing (RMP) as a framework for executing schedule-free, robust and scalable message passing-based inference in a factor graph representation of a probabilistic model. RMP is based on the reactive programming style that only describes how nodes in a factor graph react to changes in connected nodes. The absence of a fixed message passing schedule improves robustness, scalability and execution time of the inference procedure. We also present ReactiveMP.jl, which is a Julia package for realizing RMP through minimization of a constrained Bethe free energy. By user-defined specification of local form and factorization constraints on the variational posterior distribution, ReactiveMP.jl executes hybrid message passing algorithms including belief propagation, variational message passing, expectation propagation, and expectation maximisation update rules. Experimental results demonstrate the improved performance of ReactiveMP-based RMP in comparison to other Julia packages for Bayesian inference across a range of probabilistic models. In particular, we show that the RMP framework is able to run Bayesian inference for large-scale probabilistic state space models with hundreds of thousands of random variables on a standard laptop computer.

This specialization program is especially dedicated to statistics. In this program, you will learn basic and intermediate concepts of statistical analysis using the Python programming language. In this program, you will learn the following topics- where data come from, what types of data can be collected, study data design, data management, and how to effectively carry out data exploration and visualization. Along with that, you will work on a variety of assignments that will help you to check your knowledge and ability. This specialization program is a 3-course series. Let's see the details of the courses-