Learning Graphical Models
Making optimal decisions without having all the cards in hand
The article "Revelations: A Decidable Class of POMDP with Omega-Regular Objectives" won an Outstanding Paper Award at the AAAI 2025 conference, a prestigious international conference about artificial intelligence. This year, only three papers received such an award out of 3,000 accepted and 12,000 submitted! This recognition crowns the results of research initiated in Bordeaux (France) within the Synthèse team at the Bordeaux Computer Science Research Laboratory (LaBRI), where four of the authors work: Marius Belly, Nathanaël Fijalkow, Hugo Gimbert, and Pierre Vandenhove. The work also involved researchers from Paris (Florian Horn) and Antwerp (Guillermo A. Pérez). The article is freely available on arXiv, and this post outlines its main ideas.
The Problem With Early Cancer Detection
The discovery began, as many breakthroughs do, with an observation that didn't quite make sense. In 1948, two French researchers, Paul Mandel and Pierre Métais, published a little-noticed paper in a scientific journal. Working in a laboratory in Strasbourg, they had been cataloguing the chemical contents of blood plasma--that river of life teeming with proteins, sugars, waste, nutrients, and cellular debris. Amid this familiar inventory, they'd spotted an unexpected presence: fragments of DNA drifting freely. The finding defied biological orthodoxy. DNA was thought to remain locked inside the nuclei of cells, and not float around on its own.
From Boltzmann Machines to Neural Networks and Back Again
Graphical models are powerful tools for modeling high-dimensional data, but learning graphical models in the presence of latent variables is well-known to be difficult. In this work we give new results for learning Restricted Boltzmann Machines, probably the most well-studied class of latent variable models.
Inverse Filtering for Hidden Markov Models
This paper considers a number of related inverse filtering problems for hidden Markov models (HMMs). In particular, given a sequence of state posteriors and the system dynamics; i) estimate the corresponding sequence of observations, ii) estimate the observation likelihoods, and iii) jointly estimate the observation likelihoods and the observation sequence. We show how to avoid a computationally expensive mixed integer linear program (MILP) by exploiting the algebraic structure of the HMM filter using simple linear algebra operations, and provide conditions for when the quantities can be uniquely reconstructed. We also propose a solution to the more general case where the posteriors are noisily observed. Finally, the proposed inverse filtering algorithms are evaluated on real-world polysomnographic data used for automatic sleep segmentation.
Scan Order in Gibbs Sampling: Models in Which it Matters and Bounds on How Much
Gibbs sampling is a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling technique that iteratively samples variables from their conditional distributions. There are two common scan orders for the variables: random scan and systematic scan. Due to the benefits of locality in hardware, systematic scan is commonly used, even though most statistical guarantees are only for random scan. While it has been conjectured that the mixing times of random scan and systematic scan do not differ by more than a logarithmic factor, we show by counterexample that this is not the case, and we prove that that the mixing times do not differ by more than a polynomial factor under mild conditions. To prove these relative bounds, we introduce a method of augmenting the state space to study systematic scan using conductance.
Learning Treewidth-Bounded Bayesian Networks with Thousands of Variables
We present a method for learning treewidth-bounded Bayesian networks from data sets containing thousands of variables. Bounding the treewidth of a Bayesian network greatly reduces the complexity of inferences. Yet, being a global property of the graph, it considerably increases the difficulty of the learning process. Our novel algorithm accomplishes this task, scaling both to large domains and to large treewidths. Our novel approach consistently outperforms the state of the art on experiments with up to thousands of variables.
Learning Infinite RBMs with Frank-Wolfe
In this work, we propose an infinite restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM), whose maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) corresponds to a constrained convex optimization. We consider the Frank-Wolfe algorithm to solve the program, which provides a sparse solution that can be interpreted as inserting a hidden unit at each iteration, so that the optimization process takes the form of a sequence of finite models of increasing complexity. As a side benefit, this can be used to easily and efficiently identify an appropriate number of hidden units during the optimization. The resulting model can also be used as an initialization for typical state-of-the-art RBM training algorithms such as contrastive divergence, leading to models with consistently higher test likelihood than random initialization.
Regret Bounds for Information-Directed Reinforcement Learning
Information-directed sampling (IDS) has revealed its potential as a data-efficient algorithm [Lu et al., 2021] for reinforcement learning (RL). However, theoretical understanding of IDS for Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) is still limited. We develop novel information-theoretic tools to bound the information ratio and cumulative information gain about the learning target. Our theoretical results shed light on the importance of choosing the learning target such that the practitioners can balance the computation and regret bounds. As a consequence, we derive priorfree Bayesian regret bounds for vanilla-IDS which learns the whole environment under tabular finite-horizon MDPs. In addition, we propose a computationallyefficient regularized-IDS that maximizes an additive form rather than the ratio form and show that it enjoys the same regret bound as vanilla-IDS. With the aid of rate-distortion theory, we improve the regret bound by learning a surrogate, less informative environment. Furthermore, we extend our analysis to linear MDPs and prove similar regret bounds for Thompson sampling as a by-product.
Regret Bounds for Information-Directed Reinforcement Learning
Information-directed sampling (IDS) has revealed its potential as a data-efficient algorithm [Lu et al., 2021] for reinforcement learning (RL). However, theoretical understanding of IDS for Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) is still limited. We develop novel information-theoretic tools to bound the information ratio and cumulative information gain about the learning target. Our theoretical results shed light on the importance of choosing the learning target such that the practitioners can balance the computation and regret bounds. As a consequence, we derive priorfree Bayesian regret bounds for vanilla-IDS which learns the whole environment under tabular finite-horizon MDPs. In addition, we propose a computationallyefficient regularized-IDS that maximizes an additive form rather than the ratio form and show that it enjoys the same regret bound as vanilla-IDS. With the aid of rate-distortion theory, we improve the regret bound by learning a surrogate, less informative environment. Furthermore, we extend our analysis to linear MDPs and prove similar regret bounds for Thompson sampling as a by-product.
A Bayesian method for reducing bias in neural representational similarity analysis
In neuroscience, the similarity matrix of neural activity patterns in response to different sensory stimuli or under different cognitive states reflects the structure of neural representational space. Existing methods derive point estimations of neural activity patterns from noisy neural imaging data, and the similarity is calculated from these point estimations. We show that this approach translates structured noise from estimated patterns into spurious bias structure in the resulting similarity matrix, which is especially severe when signal-to-noise ratio is low and experimental conditions cannot be fully randomized in a cognitive task. We propose an alternative Bayesian framework for computing representational similarity in which we treat the covariance structure of neural activity patterns as a hyper-parameter in a generative model of the neural data, and directly estimate this covariance structure from imaging data while marginalizing over the unknown activity patterns. Converting the estimated covariance structure into a correlation matrix offers a much less biased estimate of neural representational similarity.