Learning Graphical Models

Uncertainty involves making decisions with incomplete information, and this is the way we generally operate in the world. Handling uncertainty is typically described using everyday words like chance, luck, and risk. Probability is a field of mathematics that gives us the language and tools to quantify the uncertainty of events and reason in a principled manner. In this post, you will discover a gentle introduction to probability. Photo by Emma Jane Hogbin Westby, some rights reserved.

To give you an example of the impact of machine learning, Man group's AHL Dimension programme is a $5.1 billion dollar hedge fund which is partially managed by AI. After it started off, by the year 2015, its machine learning algorithms were contributing more than half of the profits of the fund even though the assets under its management were far less. After reading this blog, you would be able to understand the basic logic behind some popular and incredibly resourceful machine learning algorithms which have been used by the trading community as well as serve as the foundation stone on which you step on to create the best machine learning algorithm. Initially developed in statistics to study the relationship between input and output numerical variables, it was adopted by the machine learning community to make predictions based on the linear regression equation. The mathematical representation of linear regression is a linear equation that combines a specific set of input data (x) to predict the output value (y) for that set of input values.

To give you an example of the impact of machine learning, Man group's AHL Dimension programme is a $5.1 billion dollar hedge fund which is partially managed by AI. After it started off, by the year 2015, its machine learning algorithms were contributing more than half of the profits of the fund even though the assets under its management were far less. After reading this blog, you would be able to understand the basic logic behind some popular and incredibly resourceful machine learning algorithms which have been used by the trading community as well as serve as the foundation stone on which you step on to create the best machine learning algorithm. Initially developed in statistics to study the relationship between input and output numerical variables, it was adopted by the machine learning community to make predictions based on the linear regression equation. The mathematical representation of linear regression is a linear equation that combines a specific set of input data (x) to predict the output value (y) for that set of input values.

Applied machine learning requires managing uncertainty. There are many sources of uncertainty in a machine learning project, including variance in the specific data values, the sample of data collected from the domain, and in the imperfect nature of any models developed from such data. Managing the uncertainty that is inherent in machine learning for predictive modeling can be achieved via the tools and techniques from probability, a field specifically designed to handle uncertainty. In this post, you will discover the challenge of uncertainty in machine learning. A Gentle Introduction to Uncertainty in Machine Learning Photo by Anastasiy Safari, some rights reserved.

Probability is a field of mathematics that quantifies uncertainty. It is undeniably a pillar of the field of machine learning, and many recommend it as a prerequisite subject to study prior to getting started. This is misleading advice, as probability makes more sense to a practitioner once they have the context of the applied machine learning process in which to interpret it. In this post, you will discover why machine learning practitioners should study probabilities to improve their skills and capabilities. Before we go through the reasons that you should learn probability, let's start off by taking a small look at the reason why you should not.

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Conditional Random Fields is a class of discriminative models best suited to prediction tasks where contextual information or state of the neighbors affect the current prediction. CRFs find their applications in named entity recognition, part of speech tagging, gene prediction, noise reduction and object detection problems, to name a few. In this article, I will first introduce the basic math and jargon related to Markov Random Fields which is an abstraction CRF is built upon. I will then introduce and explain a simple Conditional Random Fields model in detail which will show why are they suited well to sequential prediction problems. After that, I will go over the likelihood maximization problem and related derivations in context of that CRF model.

In the first part, we explored how Bayesian Statistics might be used to make reinforcement learning less data-hungry. Now we execute this idea in a simple example, using Tensorflow Probability to implement our model. When it comes to games, it is difficult to imagine something simpler than rock, paper, scissors. Despite the simplicity, googling the game reveals a remarkable body of literature. We want to use Bayesian Statistics to play this game and exploit the biases of a human opponent.

Machine Learning is a field of computer science concerned with developing systems that can learn from data. Like statistics and linear algebra, probability is another foundational field that supports machine learning. Probability is a field of mathematics concerned with quantifying uncertainty. Many aspects of machine learning are uncertain, including, most critically, observations from the problem domain and the relationships learned by models from that data. As such, some understanding of probability and tools and methods used in the field are required by a machine learning practitioner to be effective.

Rule-Based: A dictionary is constructed with possible tags for each word. Rules are either hand-crafted, learned or both. An example rule might say, "If an ambiguous/unknown word X is preceded by a determiner and followed by a noun, tag it as an adjective." Statistical: A text corpus is used to derive useful probabilities. Given a sequence of words, the most probable sequence of tags is selected.