Quantifying the usefulness of individual features in random forests learning can greatly enhance its interpretability. Existing studies have shown that some popularly used feature importance measures for random forests suffer from the bias issue. In addition, there lack comprehensive size and power analyses for most of these existing methods. In this paper, we approach the problem via hypothesis testing, and suggest a framework of the self-normalized feature-residual correlation test (FACT) for evaluating the significance of a given feature in the random forests model with bias-resistance property, where our null hypothesis concerns whether the feature is conditionally independent of the response given all other features. Such an endeavor on random forests inference is empowered by some recent developments on high-dimensional random forests consistency. Under a fairly general high-dimensional nonparametric model setting with dependent features, we formally establish that FACT can provide theoretically justified feature importance test with controlled type I error and enjoy appealing power property. The theoretical results and finite-sample advantages of the newly suggested method are illustrated with several simulation examples and an economic forecasting application.

Verifying the robustness of machine learning models against evasion attacks at test time is an important research problem. Unfortunately, prior work established that this problem is NP-hard for decision tree ensembles, hence bound to be intractable for specific inputs. In this paper, we identify a restricted class of decision tree ensembles, called large-spread ensembles, which admit a security verification algorithm running in polynomial time. We then propose a new approach called verifiable learning, which advocates the training of such restricted model classes which are amenable for efficient verification. We show the benefits of this idea by designing a new training algorithm that automatically learns a large-spread decision tree ensemble from labelled data, thus enabling its security verification in polynomial time. Experimental results on public datasets confirm that large-spread ensembles trained using our algorithm can be verified in a matter of seconds, using standard commercial hardware. Moreover, large-spread ensembles are more robust than traditional ensembles against evasion attacks, at the cost of an acceptable loss of accuracy in the non-adversarial setting.

With the insight of variance-bias decomposition, we design a new hybrid bagging-boosting algorithm named SBPMT for classification problems. For the boosting part of SBPMT, we propose a new tree model called Probit Model Tree (PMT) as base classifiers in AdaBoost procedure. For the bagging part, instead of subsampling from the dataset at each step of boosting, we perform boosted PMTs on each subagged dataset and combine them into a powerful "committee", which can be viewed an incomplete U-statistic. Our theoretical analysis shows that (1) SBPMT is consistent under certain assumptions, (2) Increase the subagging times can reduce the generalization error of SBPMT to some extent and (3) Large number of ProbitBoost iterations in PMT can benefit the performance of SBPMT with fewer steps in the AdaBoost part. Those three properties are verified by a famous simulation designed by Mease and Wyner (2008). The last two points also provide a useful guidance in model tuning. A comparison of performance with other state-of-the-art classification methods illustrates that the proposed SBPMT algorithm has competitive prediction power in general and performs significantly better in some cases.

Decision Trees (DTs) are commonly used for many machine learning tasks due to their high degree of interpretability. However, learning a DT from data is a difficult optimization problem, as it is non-convex and non-differentiable. Therefore, common approaches learn DTs using a greedy growth algorithm that minimizes the impurity locally at each internal node. Unfortunately, this greedy procedure can lead to inaccurate trees. In this paper, we present a novel approach for learning hard, axis-aligned DTs with gradient descent. The proposed method uses backpropagation with a straight-through operator on a dense DT representation, to jointly optimize all tree parameters. Our approach outperforms existing methods on binary classification benchmarks and achieves competitive results for multi-class tasks. The method is available under: https://github.com/s-marton/GradTree

Model explainability is crucial for human users to be able to interpret how a proposed classifier assigns labels to data based on its feature values. We study generalized linear models constructed using sets of feature value rules, which can capture nonlinear dependencies and interactions. An inherent trade-off exists between rule set sparsity and its prediction accuracy. It is computationally expensive to find the right choice of sparsity -- e.g., via cross-validation -- with existing methods. We propose a new formulation to learn an ensemble of rule sets that simultaneously addresses these competing factors. Good generalization is ensured while keeping computational costs low by utilizing distributionally robust optimization. The formulation utilizes column generation to efficiently search the space of rule sets and constructs a sparse ensemble of rule sets, in contrast with techniques like random forests or boosting and their variants. We present theoretical results that motivate and justify the use of our distributionally robust formulation. Extensive numerical experiments establish that our method improves over competing methods -- on a large set of publicly available binary classification problem instances -- with respect to one or more of the following metrics: generalization quality, computational cost, and explainability.

We propose a prognostic stratum matching framework that addresses the deficiencies of Randomized trial data subgroup analysis and transforms ObservAtional Data to be used as if they were randomized, thus paving the road for precision medicine. Our approach counters the effects of unobserved confounding in observational data by correcting the estimated probabilities of the outcome under a treatment through a novel two-step process. These probabilities are then used to train Optimal Policy Trees (OPTs), which are decision trees that optimally assign treatments to subgroups of patients based on their characteristics. This facilitates the creation of clinically intuitive treatment recommendations. We applied our framework to observational data of patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) and validated the OPTs in an external cohort using the sensitivity and specificity metrics. We show that these recommendations outperformed those of experts in GIST. We further applied the same framework to randomized clinical trial (RCT) data of patients with extremity sarcomas. Remarkably, despite the initial trial results suggesting that all patients should receive treatment, our framework, after addressing imbalances in patient distribution due to the trial's small sample size, identified through the OPTs a subset of patients with unique characteristics who may not require treatment. Again, we successfully validated our recommendations in an external cohort.

Case-based reasoning is known to play an important role in several legal settings. In this paper we focus on a recent approach to case-based reasoning, supported by an instantiation of abstract argumentation whereby arguments represent cases and attack between arguments results from outcome disagreement between cases and a notion of relevance. In this context, relevance is connected to a form of specificity among cases. We explore how relevance can be learnt automatically in practice with the help of decision trees, and explore the combination of case-based reasoning with abstract argumentation (AA-CBR) and learning of case relevance for prediction in legal settings. Specifically, we show that, for two legal datasets, AA-CBR and decision-tree-based learning of case relevance perform competitively in comparison with decision trees. We also show that AA-CBR with decision-tree-based learning of case relevance results in a more compact representation than their decision tree counterparts, which could be beneficial for obtaining cognitively tractable explanations.

Network intrusion detection (NID) systems which leverage machine learning have been shown to have strong performance in practice when used to detect malicious network traffic. Decision trees in particular offer a strong balance between performance and simplicity, but require users of NID systems to have background knowledge in machine learning to interpret. In addition, they are unable to provide additional outside information as to why certain features may be important for classification. In this work, we explore the use of large language models (LLMs) to provide explanations and additional background knowledge for decision tree NID systems. Further, we introduce a new human evaluation framework for decision tree explanations, which leverages automatically generated quiz questions that measure human evaluators' understanding of decision tree inference. Finally, we show LLM generated decision tree explanations correlate highly with human ratings of readability, quality, and use of background knowledge while simultaneously providing better understanding of decision boundaries.

We establish stability of random forests under the mild condition that the squared response ($Y^2$) does not have a heavy tail. In particular, our analysis holds for the practical version of random forests that is implemented in popular packages like \texttt{randomForest} in \texttt{R}. Empirical results show that stability may persist even beyond our assumption and hold for heavy-tailed $Y^2$. Using the stability property, we prove a non-asymptotic lower bound for the coverage probability of prediction intervals constructed from the out-of-bag error of random forests. With another mild condition that is typically satisfied when $Y$ is continuous, we also establish a complementary upper bound, which can be similarly established for the jackknife prediction interval constructed from an arbitrary stable algorithm. We also discuss the asymptotic coverage probability under assumptions weaker than those considered in previous literature. Our work implies that random forests, with its stability property, is an effective machine learning method that can provide not only satisfactory point prediction but also justified interval prediction at almost no extra computational cost.

Joint feature selection and tree ensemble learning is a challenging task. Popular tree ensemble toolkits e.g., Gradient Boosted Trees and Random Forests support feature selection post-training based on feature importances, which are known to be misleading, and can significantly hurt performance. We propose Skinny Trees: a toolkit for feature selection in tree ensembles, such that feature selection and tree ensemble learning occurs simultaneously. It is based on an end-to-end optimization approach that considers feature selection in differentiable trees with Group $\ell_0 - \ell_2$ regularization. We optimize with a first-order proximal method and present convergence guarantees for a non-convex and non-smooth objective. Interestingly, dense-to-sparse regularization scheduling can lead to more expressive and sparser tree ensembles than vanilla proximal method. On 15 synthetic and real-world datasets, Skinny Trees can achieve $1.5\times$ - $620\times$ feature compression rates, leading up to $10\times$ faster inference over dense trees, without any loss in performance. Skinny Trees lead to superior feature selection than many existing toolkits e.g., in terms of AUC performance for $25\%$ feature budget, Skinny Trees outperforms LightGBM by $10.2\%$ (up to $37.7\%$), and Random Forests by $3\%$ (up to $12.5\%$).