Demand-side flexibility is gaining importance as a crucial element in the energy transition process. Accounting for about 25% of final energy consumption globally, the residential sector is an important (potential) source of energy flexibility. However, unlocking this flexibility requires developing a control framework that (1) easily scales across different houses, (2) is easy to maintain, and (3) is simple to understand for end-users. A potential control framework for such a task is data-driven control, specifically model-free reinforcement learning (RL). Such RL-based controllers learn a good control policy by interacting with their environment, learning purely based on data and with minimal human intervention. Yet, they lack explainability, which hampers user acceptance. Moreover, limited hardware capabilities of residential assets forms a hurdle (e.g., using deep neural networks). To overcome both those challenges, we propose a novel method to obtain explainable RL policies by using differentiable decision trees. Using a policy distillation approach, we train these differentiable decision trees to mimic standard RL-based controllers, leading to a decision tree-based control policy that is data-driven and easy to explain. As a proof-of-concept, we examine the performance and explainability of our proposed approach in a battery-based home energy management system to reduce energy costs. For this use case, we show that our proposed approach can outperform baseline rule-based policies by about 20-25%, while providing simple, explainable control policies. We further compare these explainable policies with standard RL policies and examine the performance trade-offs associated with this increased explainability.

Differentially-private (DP) mechanisms can be embedded into the design of a machine learningalgorithm to protect the resulting model against privacy leakage, although this often comes with asignificant loss of accuracy. In this paper, we aim at improving this trade-off for rule lists modelsby establishing the smooth sensitivity of the Gini impurity and leveraging it to propose a DP greedyrule list algorithm. In particular, our theoretical analysis and experimental results demonstrate thatthe DP rule lists models integrating smooth sensitivity have higher accuracy that those using otherDP frameworks based on global sensitivity.

The rise of synoptic sky surveys has ushered in an era of big data in time-domain astronomy, making data science and machine learning essential tools for studying celestial objects. Tree-based (e.g. Random Forests) and deep learning models represent the current standard in the field. We explore the use of different distance metrics to aid in the classification of objects. For this, we developed a new distance metric based classifier called DistClassiPy. The direct use of distance metrics is an approach that has not been explored in time-domain astronomy, but distance-based methods can aid in increasing the interpretability of the classification result and decrease the computational costs. In particular, we classify light curves of variable stars by comparing the distances between objects of different classes. Using 18 distance metrics applied to a catalog of 6,000 variable stars in 10 classes, we demonstrate classification and dimensionality reduction. We show that this classifier meets state-of-the-art performance but has lower computational requirements and improved interpretability. We have made DistClassiPy open-source and accessible at https://pypi.org/project/distclassipy/ with the goal of broadening its applications to other classification scenarios within and beyond astronomy.

Classification is essential to the applications in the field of data mining, artificial intelligence, and fault detection. There exists a strong need in developing accurate, suitable, and efficient classification methods and algorithms with broad applicability. Random forest is a general algorithm that is often used for classification under complex conditions. Although it has been widely adopted, its combination with diverse fuzzy theory is still worth exploring. In this paper, we propose the intuitionistic fuzzy random forest (IFRF), a new random forest ensemble of intuitionistic fuzzy decision trees (IFDT). Such trees in forest use intuitionistic fuzzy information gain to select features and consider hesitation in information transmission. The proposed method enjoys the power of the randomness from bootstrapped sampling and feature selection, the flexibility of fuzzy logic and fuzzy sets, and the robustness of multiple classifier systems. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the IFRF has competitative and superior performance compared to other state-of-the-art fuzzy and ensemble algorithms. IFDT is more suitable for ensemble learning with outstanding classification accuracy. This study is the first to propose a random forest ensemble based on the intuitionistic fuzzy theory.

Explaining outliers occurrence and mechanism of their occurrence can be extremely important in a variety of domains. Malfunctions, frauds, threats, in addition to being correctly identified, oftentimes need a valid explanation in order to effectively perform actionable counteracts. The ever more widespread use of sophisticated Machine Learning approach to identify anomalies make such explanations more challenging. We present the Decision Tree Outlier Regressor (DTOR), a technique for producing rule-based explanations for individual data points by estimating anomaly scores generated by an anomaly detection model. This is accomplished by first applying a Decision Tree Regressor, which computes the estimation score, and then extracting the relative path associated with the data point score. Our results demonstrate the robustness of DTOR even in datasets with a large number of features. Additionally, in contrast to other rule-based approaches, the generated rules are consistently satisfied by the points to be explained. Furthermore, our evaluation metrics indicate comparable performance to Anchors in outlier explanation tasks, with reduced execution time.

This paper proposes a novel boosting algorithm called VadaBoost which is motivated by recent empirical Bernstein bounds. VadaBoost iteratively minimizes a cost function that balances the sample mean and the sample variance of the exponential loss. Each step of the proposed algorithm minimizes the cost efficiently by providing weighted data to a weak learner rather than requiring a brute force evaluation of all possible weak learners. Thus, the proposed algorithm solves a key limitation of previous empirical Bernstein boosting methods which required brute force enumeration of all possible weak learners. Experimental results confirm that the new algorithm achieves the performance improvements of EBBoost yet goes beyond decision stumps to handle any weak learner. Significant performance gains are obtained over AdaBoost for arbitrary weak learners including decision trees (CART).

This paper introduces timeline trees, which are partial models of partially observable environments. Timeline trees are given some specific predictions to make and learn a decision tree over history. The main idea of timeline trees is to use temporally abstract features to identify and split on features of key events, spread arbitrarily far apart in the past (whereas previous decision-tree-based methods have been limited to a finite suffix of history). Experiments demonstrate that timeline trees can learn to make high quality predictions in complex, partially observable environments with high-dimensional observations (e.g. an arcade game).

Class imbalance poses a major challenge in different classification tasks, which is a frequently occurring scenario in many real-world applications. Data resampling is considered to be the standard approach to address this issue. The goal of the technique is to balance the class distribution by generating new samples or eliminating samples from the data. A wide variety of sampling techniques have been proposed over the years to tackle this challenging problem. Sampling techniques can also be incorporated into the ensemble learning framework to obtain more generalized prediction performance. Balanced Random Forest (BRF) and SMOTE-Bagging are some of the popular ensemble approaches. In this study, we propose a modification to the BRF classifier to enhance the prediction performance. In the original algorithm, the Random Undersampling (RUS) technique was utilized to balance the bootstrap samples. However, randomly eliminating too many samples from the data leads to significant data loss, resulting in a major decline in performance. We propose to alleviate the scenario by incorporating a novel hybrid sampling approach to balance the uneven class distribution in each bootstrap sub-sample. Our proposed hybrid sampling technique, when incorporated into the framework of the Random Forest classifier, termed as iBRF: improved Balanced Random Forest classifier, achieves better prediction performance than other sampling techniques used in imbalanced classification tasks. Experiments were carried out on 44 imbalanced datasets on which the original BRF classifier produced an average MCC score of 47.03% and an F1 score of 49.09%. Our proposed algorithm outperformed the approach by producing a far better MCC score of 53.04% and an F1 score of 55%. The results obtained signify the superiority of the iBRF algorithm and its potential to be an effective sampling technique in imbalanced learning.

We derive Gaussian approximation bounds for random forest predictions based on a set of training points given by a Poisson process, under fairly mild regularity assumptions on the data generating process. Our approach is based on the key observation that the random forest predictions satisfy a certain geometric property called region-based stabilization. In the process of developing our results for the random forest, we also establish a probabilistic result, which might be of independent interest, on multivariate Gaussian approximation bounds for general functionals of Poisson process that are region-based stabilizing. This general result makes use of the Malliavin-Stein method, and is potentially applicable to various related statistical problems.

Summary of the paper: This paper revisits the idea of decision DAGs for classification. Unlike a decision tree, a decision DAG is able to merge nodes at each layer, preventing the tree from growing exponentially with depth. This represents an alternative to decision-trees utilizing pruning methods as a means of controlling model size and preventing overfitting. The paper casts learning with this model as an empirical risk minimization problem, where the idea is to learn both the DAG structure along with the split parameters of each node. Two algorithms are presented to learn the structure and parameters in a greedy layer-wise manner using an information-gain based objective.