Shapley values have seen widespread use in machine learning as a way to explain model predictions and estimate the importance of covariates. Accurately explaining models is critical in real-world models to both aid in decision making and to infer the properties of the true data-generating process (DGP). In this paper, we demonstrate that while model-based Shapley values might be accurate explainers of model predictions, machine learning models themselves are often poor explainers of the DGP even if the model is highly accurate. Particularly in the presence of interrelated or noisy variables, the output of a highly predictive model may fail to account for these relationships. This implies explanations of a trained model's behavior may fail to provide meaningful insight into the DGP. In this paper we introduce a novel variable importance algorithm, Shapley Marginal Surplus for Strong Models, that samples the space of possible models to come up with an inferential measure of feature importance. We compare this method to other popular feature importance methods, both Shapley-based and non-Shapley based, and demonstrate significant outperformance in inferential capabilities relative to other methods.

This research delves into the utilization of smartwatch sensor data and heart rate monitoring to discern individual emotions based on body movement and heart rate. Emotions play a pivotal role in human life, influencing mental well-being, quality of life, and even physical and physiological responses. The data were sourced from prior research by Juan C. Quiroz, PhD. The study enlisted 50 participants who donned smartwatches and heart rate monitors while completing a 250-meter walk. Emotions were induced through both audio-visual and audio stimuli, with participants' emotional states evaluated using the PANAS questionnaire. The study scrutinized three scenarios: viewing a movie before walking, listening to music before walking, and listening to music while walking. Personal baselines were established using DummyClassifier with the 'most_frequent' strategy from the sklearn library, and various models, including Logistic Regression and Random Forest, were employed to gauge the impacts of these activities. Notably, a novel approach was undertaken by incorporating hyperparameter tuning to the Random Forest model using RandomizedSearchCV. The outcomes showcased substantial enhancements with hyperparameter tuning in the Random Forest model, yielding mean accuracies of 86.63% for happy vs. sad and 76.33% for happy vs. neutral vs. sad.

We demonstrate that adaptively controlling the size of individual regression trees in a random forest can improve predictive performance, contrary to the conventional wisdom that trees should be fully grown. A fast pruning algorithm, alpha-trimming, is proposed as an effective approach to pruning trees within a random forest, where more aggressive pruning is performed in regions with a low signal-to-noise ratio. The amount of overall pruning is controlled by adjusting the weight on an information criterion penalty as a tuning parameter, with the standard random forest being a special case of our alpha-trimmed random forest. A remarkable feature of alpha-trimming is that its tuning parameter can be adjusted without refitting the trees in the random forest once the trees have been fully grown once. In a benchmark suite of 46 example data sets, mean squared prediction error is often substantially lowered by using our pruning algorithm and is never substantially increased compared to a random forest with fully-grown trees at default parameter settings.

Explaining decisions of black-box classifiers is both important and computationally challenging. In this paper, we scrutinize explainers that generate feature-based explanations from samples or datasets. We start by presenting a set of desirable properties that explainers would ideally satisfy, delve into their relationships, and highlight incompatibilities of some of them. We identify the entire family of explainers that satisfy two key properties which are compatible with all the others. Its instances provide sufficient reasons, called weak abductive explanations.We then unravel its various subfamilies that satisfy subsets of compatible properties. Indeed, we fully characterize all the explainers that satisfy any subset of compatible properties. In particular, we introduce the first (broad family of) explainers that guarantee the existence of explanations and their global consistency.We discuss some of its instances including the irrefutable explainer and the surrogate explainer whose explanations can be found in polynomial time.

Random Forest (RF) is a widely used machine learning algorithm known for its flexibility, user-friendliness, and high predictive performance across various domains. However, it is non-interpretable. This can limit its usefulness in applied sciences, where understanding the relationships between predictors and response variable is crucial from a decision-making perspective. In the literature, several methods have been proposed to explain RF, but none of them addresses the challenge of explaining RF in the context of spatially dependent data. Therefore, this work aims to explain regression RF in the case of spatially dependent data by extracting a compact and simple list of rules. In this respect, we propose S-SIRUS, a spatial extension of SIRUS, the latter being a well-established regression rule algorithm able to extract a stable and short list of rules from the classical regression RF algorithm. A simulation study was conducted to evaluate the explainability capability of the proposed S-SIRUS, in comparison to SIRUS, by considering different levels of spatial dependence among the data. The results suggest that S-SIRUS exhibits a higher test predictive accuracy than SIRUS when spatial correlation is present. Moreover, for higher levels of spatial correlation, S-SIRUS produces a shorter list of rules, easing the explanation of the mechanism behind the predictions.

The explainability of machine learning algorithms is crucial, and numerous methods have emerged recently. Local, post-hoc methods assign an attribution score to each feature, indicating its importance for the prediction. However, these methods require recalculating explanations for each example. On the other side, while there exist global approaches they often produce explanations that are either overly simplistic and unreliable or excessively complex. To bridge this gap, we propose GLEAMS, a novel method that partitions the input space and learns an interpretable model within each sub-region, thereby providing both faithful local and global surrogates. We demonstrate GLEAMS' effectiveness on both synthetic and real-world data, highlighting its desirable properties and human-understandable insights.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing various fields, including public health surveillance. In Africa, where health systems frequently encounter challenges such as limited resources, inadequate infrastructure, failed health information systems and a shortage of skilled health professionals, AI offers a transformative opportunity. This paper investigates the applications of AI in public health surveillance across the continent, presenting successful case studies and examining the benefits, opportunities, and challenges of implementing AI technologies in African healthcare settings. Our paper highlights AI's potential to enhance disease monitoring and health outcomes, and support effective public health interventions. The findings presented in the paper demonstrate that AI can significantly improve the accuracy and timeliness of disease detection and prediction, optimize resource allocation, and facilitate targeted public health strategies. Additionally, our paper identified key barriers to the widespread adoption of AI in African public health systems and proposed actionable recommendations to overcome these challenges.

This study presents a novel approach to predicting mechanical properties of Additive Friction Stir Deposited (AFSD) aluminum alloy walled structures using biomimetic machine learning. The research combines numerical modeling of the AFSD process with genetic algorithm-optimized machine learning models to predict von Mises stress and logarithmic strain. Finite element analysis was employed to simulate the AFSD process for five aluminum alloys: AA2024, AA5083, AA5086, AA7075, and AA6061, capturing complex thermal and mechanical interactions. A dataset of 200 samples was generated from these simulations. Subsequently, Decision Tree (DT) and Random Forest (RF) regression models, optimized using genetic algorithms, were developed to predict key mechanical properties. The GA-RF model demonstrated superior performance in predicting both von Mises stress (R square = 0.9676) and logarithmic strain (R square = 0.7201). This innovative approach provides a powerful tool for understanding and optimizing the AFSD process across multiple aluminum alloys, offering insights into material behavior under various process parameters.

Computer-mediated communication has become more important than face-to-face communication in many contexts. Tracking emotional dynamics in chat conversations can enhance communication, improve services, and support well-being in various contexts. This paper explores a hybrid approach to tracking emotional dynamics in chat conversations by combining DistilBERT-based text emotion detection and emoji sentiment analysis. A Twitter dataset was analyzed using various machine learning algorithms, including SVM, Random Forest, and AdaBoost. We contrasted their performance with DistilBERT. Results reveal DistilBERT's superior performance in emotion recognition. Our approach accounts for emotive expressions conveyed through emojis to better understand participants' emotions during chats. We demonstrate how this approach can effectively capture and analyze emotional shifts in real-time conversations. Our findings show that integrating text and emoji analysis is an effective way of tracking chat emotion, with possible applications in customer service, work chats, and social media interactions.

Machine learning methods for estimating treatment effect heterogeneity promise greater flexibility than existing methods that test a few pre-specified hypotheses. However, one problem these methods can have is that it can be challenging to extract insights from complicated machine learning models. A high-dimensional distribution of conditional average treatment effects may give accurate, individual-level estimates, but it can be hard to understand the underlying patterns; hard to know what the implications of the analysis are. This paper proposes the Distilled Causal Tree, a method for distilling a single, interpretable causal tree from a causal forest. This compares well to existing methods of extracting a single tree, particularly in noisy data or high-dimensional data where there are many correlated features. Here it even outperforms the base causal forest in most simulations. Its estimates are doubly robust and asymptotically normal just as those of the causal forest are.