Background: Patient-reported survey data are used to train prognostic models aimed at improving healthcare. However, such data are typically available multi-centric and, for privacy reasons, cannot easily be centralized in one data repository. Models trained locally are less accurate, robust, and generalizable. We present and apply privacy-preserving federated machine learning techniques for prognostic model building, where local survey data never leaves the legally safe harbors of the medical centers. Methods: We used centralized, local, and federated learning techniques on two healthcare datasets (GLA:D data from the five health regions of Denmark and international SHARE data of 27 countries) to predict two different health outcomes. We compared linear regression, random forest regression, and random forest classification models trained on local data with those trained on the entire data in a centralized and in a federated fashion. Results: In GLA:D data, federated linear regression (R2 0.34, RMSE 18.2) and federated random forest regression (R2 0.34, RMSE 18.3) models outperform their local counterparts (i.e., R2 0.32, RMSE 18.6, R2 0.30, RMSE 18.8) with statistical significance. We also found that centralized models (R2 0.34, RMSE 18.2, R2 0.32, RMSE 18.5, respectively) did not perform significantly better than the federated models. In SHARE, the federated model (AC 0.78, AUROC: 0.71) and centralized model (AC 0.84, AUROC: 0.66) perform significantly better than the local models (AC: 0.74, AUROC: 0.69). Conclusion: Federated learning enables the training of prognostic models from multi-center surveys without compromising privacy and with only minimal or no compromise regarding model performance.

Functional data analysis (FDA) and ensemble learning can be powerful tools for analyzing complex environmental time series. Recent literature has highlighted the key role of diversity in enhancing accuracy and reducing variance in ensemble methods.This paper introduces Randomized Spline Trees (RST), a novel algorithm that bridges these two approaches by incorporating randomized functional representations into the Random Forest framework. RST generates diverse functional representations of input data using randomized B-spline parameters, creating an ensemble of decision trees trained on these varied representations. We provide a theoretical analysis of how this functional diversity contributes to reducing generalization error and present empirical evaluations on six environmental time series classification tasks from the UCR Time Series Archive. Results show that RST variants outperform standard Random Forests and Gradient Boosting on most datasets, improving classification accuracy by up to 14\%. The success of RST demonstrates the potential of adaptive functional representations in capturing complex temporal patterns in environmental data. This work contributes to the growing field of machine learning techniques focused on functional data and opens new avenues for research in environmental time series analysis.

STAND is a data-efficient and computationally efficient machine learning approach that produces better classification accuracy than popular approaches like XGBoost on small-data tabular classification problems like learning rule preconditions from interactive training. STAND accounts for a complete set of good candidate generalizations instead of selecting a single generalization by breaking ties randomly. STAND can use any greedy concept construction strategy, like decision tree learning or sequential covering, and build a structure that approximates a version space over disjunctive normal logical statements. Unlike candidate elimination approaches to version-space learning, STAND does not suffer from issues of version-space collapse from noisy data nor is it restricted to learning strictly conjunctive concepts. More importantly, STAND can produce a measure called instance certainty that can predict increases in holdout set performance and has high utility as an active-learning heuristic. Instance certainty enables STAND to be self-aware of its own learning: it knows when it learns and what example will help it learn the most. We illustrate that instance certainty has desirable properties that can help users select next training problems, and estimate when training is complete in applications where users interactively teach an AI a complex program.

Ensemble methods such as random forests have transformed the landscape of supervised learning, offering highly accurate prediction through the aggregation of multiple weak learners. However, despite their effectiveness, these methods often lack transparency, impeding users' comprehension of how RF models arrive at their predictions. Explainable ensemble trees (E2Tree) is a novel methodology for explaining random forests, that provides a graphical representation of the relationship between response variables and predictors. A striking characteristic of E2Tree is that it not only accounts for the effects of predictor variables on the response but also accounts for associations between the predictor variables through the computation and use of dissimilarity measures. The E2Tree methodology was initially proposed for use in classification tasks. In this paper, we extend the methodology to encompass regression contexts. To demonstrate the explanatory power of the proposed algorithm, we illustrate its use on real-world datasets.

This study applied machine learning models to estimate stellar rotation periods from corrected light curve data obtained by the NASA Kepler mission. Traditional methods often struggle to estimate rotation periods accurately due to noise and variability in the light curve data. The workflow involved using initial period estimates from the LS-Periodogram and Transit Least Squares techniques, followed by splitting the data into training, validation, and testing sets. We employed several machine learning algorithms, including Decision Tree, Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbors, and Gradient Boosting, and also utilized a Voting Ensemble approach to improve prediction accuracy and robustness. The analysis included data from multiple Kepler IDs, providing detailed metrics on orbital periods and planet radii. Performance evaluation showed that the Voting Ensemble model yielded the most accurate results, with an RMSE approximately 50\% lower than the Decision Tree model and 17\% better than the K-Nearest Neighbors model. The Random Forest model performed comparably to the Voting Ensemble, indicating high accuracy. In contrast, the Gradient Boosting model exhibited a worse RMSE compared to the other approaches. Comparisons of the predicted rotation periods to the photometric reference periods showed close alignment, suggesting the machine learning models achieved high prediction accuracy. The results indicate that machine learning, particularly ensemble methods, can effectively solve the problem of accurately estimating stellar rotation periods, with significant implications for advancing the study of exoplanets and stellar astrophysics.

This research investigates the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques to predict the toxicity of nanoparticles, a pressing concern due to their pervasive use in various industries and the inherent challenges in assessing their biological interactions. Employing models such as Decision Trees, Random Forests, and XGBoost, the study focuses on analyzing physicochemical properties like size, shape, surface charge, and chemical composition to determine their influence on toxicity. Our findings highlight the significant role of oxygen atoms, particle size, surface area, dosage, and exposure duration in affecting toxicity levels. The use of machine learning allows for a nuanced understanding of the intricate patterns these properties form in biological contexts, surpassing traditional analysis methods in efficiency and predictive power. These advancements aid in developing safer nanomaterials through computational chemistry, reducing reliance on costly and time-consuming experimental methods. This approach not only enhances our understanding of nanoparticle behavior in biological systems but also streamlines the safety assessment process, marking a significant stride towards integrating computational techniques in nanotoxicology.

Decision trees, owing to their interpretability, are attractive as control policies for (dynamical) systems. Unfortunately, constructing, or synthesising, such policies is a challenging task. Previous approaches do so by imitating a neural-network policy, approximating a tabular policy obtained via formal synthesis, employing reinforcement learning, or modelling the problem as a mixed-integer linear program. However, these works may require access to a hard-to-obtain accurate policy or a formal model of the environment (within reach of formal synthesis), and may not provide guarantees on the quality or size of the final tree policy. In contrast, we present an approach to synthesise optimal decision-tree policies given a black-box environment and specification, and a discretisation of the tree predicates, where optimality is defined with respect to the number of steps to achieve the goal. Our approach is a specialised search algorithm which systematically explores the (exponentially large) space of decision trees under the given discretisation. The key component is a novel pruning mechanism that significantly reduces the search space. Our approach represents a conceptually novel way of synthesising small decision-tree policies with optimality guarantees even for black-box environments with black-box specifications.

Deep neural network(DNN) based classifiers do extremely well in discriminating between observations, resulting in higher ROC AUC and accuracy metrics, but their outputs are often miscalibrated with respect to true event likelihoods. Post-hoc calibration algorithms are often used to calibrate the outputs of these classifiers. Methods like Isotonic regression, Platt scaling, and Temperature scaling have been shown to be effective in some cases but are limited by their parametric assumptions and/or their inability to capture complex non-linear relationships. We propose ForeCal - a novel post-hoc calibration algorithm based on Random forests. ForeCal exploits two unique properties of Random forests: the ability to enforce weak monotonicity and range-preservation. It is more powerful in achieving calibration than current state-of-the-art methods, is non-parametric, and can incorporate exogenous information as features to learn a better calibration function. Through experiments on 43 diverse datasets from the UCI ML repository, we show that ForeCal outperforms existing methods in terms of Expected Calibration Error(ECE) with minimal impact on the discriminative power of the base DNN as measured by AUC.

Interpretable models are important, but what happens when the model is updated on new training data? We propose an algorithm for updating a decision tree while minimising the number of changes to the tree that a human would need to audit. We achieve this via a greedy approach that incorporates the number of changes to the tree as part of the objective function. We compare our algorithm to existing methods and show that it sits in a sweet spot between final accuracy and number of changes to audit.

Machine learning models are often criticized for their black-box nature, raising concerns about their applicability in critical decision-making scenarios. Consequently, there is a growing demand for interpretable models in such contexts. In this study, we introduce Model-based Deep Rule Forests (mobDRF), an interpretable representation learning algorithm designed to extract transparent models from data. By leveraging IF-THEN rules with multi-level logic expressions, mobDRF enhances the interpretability of existing models without compromising accuracy. We apply mobDRF to identify key risk factors for cognitive decline in an elderly population, demonstrating its effectiveness in subgroup analysis and local model optimization. Our method offers a promising solution for developing trustworthy and interpretable machine learning models, particularly valuable in fields like healthcare, where understanding differential effects across patient subgroups can lead to more personalized and effective treatments.