Decision Tree Learning
Multi-class heart disease Detection, Classification, and Prediction using Machine Learning Models
Haque, Mahfuzul, Miah, Abu Saleh Musa, Gupta, Debashish, Prince, Md. Maruf Al Hossain, Alam, Tanzina, Sharmin, Nusrat, Ali, Mohammed Sowket, Shin, Jungpil
Heart disease is a leading cause of premature death worldwide, particularly among middle-aged and older adults, with men experiencing a higher prevalence. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), non-communicable diseases, including heart disease, account for 25\% (17.9 million) of global deaths, with over 43,204 annual fatalities in Bangladesh. However, the development of heart disease detection (HDD) systems tailored to the Bangladeshi population remains underexplored due to the lack of benchmark datasets and reliance on manual or limited-data approaches. This study addresses these challenges by introducing new, ethically sourced HDD dataset, BIG-Dataset and CD dataset which incorporates comprehensive data on symptoms, examination techniques, and risk factors. Using advanced machine learning techniques, including Logistic Regression and Random Forest, we achieved a remarkable testing accuracy of up to 96.6\% with Random Forest. The proposed AI-driven system integrates these models and datasets to provide real-time, accurate diagnostics and personalized healthcare recommendations. By leveraging structured datasets and state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, this research offers an innovative solution for scalable and effective heart disease detection, with the potential to reduce mortality rates and improve clinical outcomes.
Quantifying the Limits of Segment Anything Model: Analyzing Challenges in Segmenting Tree-Like and Low-Contrast Structures
Zhang, Yixin, Konz, Nicholas, Kramer, Kevin, Mazurowski, Maciej A.
Segment Anything Model (SAM) has shown impressive performance in interactive and zero-shot segmentation across diverse domains, suggesting that they have learned a general concept of "objects" from their large-scale training. However, we observed that SAM struggles with certain types of objects, particularly those featuring dense, tree-like structures and low textural contrast from their surroundings. These failure modes are critical for understanding its limitations in real-world use. In order to systematically examine this issue, we propose metrics to quantify two key object characteristics: tree-likeness and textural separability. Through extensive controlled synthetic experiments and testing on real datasets, we demonstrate that SAM's performance is noticeably correlated with these factors. We link these behaviors under the concept of "textural confusion", where SAM misinterprets local structure as global texture, leading to over-segmentation, or struggles to differentiate objects from similarly textured backgrounds. These findings offer the first quantitative framework to model SAM's challenges, providing valuable insights into its limitations and guiding future improvements for vision foundation models.
Beyond algorithm hyperparameters: on preprocessing hyperparameters and associated pitfalls in machine learning applications
Sauer, Christina, Boulesteix, Anne-Laure, Hanßum, Luzia, Hodiamont, Farina, Bausewein, Claudia, Ullmann, Theresa
Adequately generating and evaluating prediction models based on supervised machine learning (ML) is often challenging, especially for less experienced users in applied research areas. Special attention is required in settings where the model generation process involves hyperparameter tuning, i.e. data-driven optimization of different types of hyperparameters to improve the predictive performance of the resulting model. Discussions about tuning typically focus on the hyperparameters of the ML algorithm (e.g., the minimum number of observations in each terminal node for a tree-based algorithm). In this context, it is often neglected that hyperparameters also exist for the preprocessing steps that are applied to the data before it is provided to the algorithm (e.g., how to handle missing feature values in the data). As a consequence, users experimenting with different preprocessing options to improve model performance may be unaware that this constitutes a form of hyperparameter tuning - albeit informal and unsystematic - and thus may fail to report or account for this optimization. To illuminate this issue, this paper reviews and empirically illustrates different procedures for generating and evaluating prediction models, explicitly addressing the different ways algorithm and preprocessing hyperparameters are typically handled by applied ML users. By highlighting potential pitfalls, especially those that may lead to exaggerated performance claims, this review aims to further improve the quality of predictive modeling in ML applications.
Rashomon effect in Educational Research: Why More is Better Than One for Measuring the Importance of the Variables?
Kuzilek, Jakub, Çavuş, Mustafa
This study explores how the Rashomon effect influences variable importance in the context of student demographics used for academic outcomes prediction. Our research follows the way machine learning algorithms are employed in Educational Data Mining, focusing on highlighting the so-called Rashomon effect. The study uses the Rashomon set of simple-yet-accurate models trained using decision trees, random forests, light GBM, and XGBoost algorithms with the Open University Learning Analytics Dataset. We found that the Rashomon set improves the predictive accuracy by 2-6%. Variable importance analysis revealed more consistent and reliable results for binary classification than multiclass classification, highlighting the complexity of predicting multiple outcomes. Key demographic variables imd_band and highest_education were identified as vital, but their importance varied across courses, especially in course DDD. These findings underscore the importance of model choice and the need for caution in generalizing results, as different models can lead to different variable importance rankings. The codes for reproducing the experiments are available in the repository: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/JEDM_paper-DE9D.
Predicting the Impact of Scope Changes on Project Cost and Schedule Using Machine Learning Techniques
In the dynamic landscape of project management, scope changes are an inevitable reality that can significantly impact project performance. These changes, whether initiated by stakeholders, external factors, or internal project dynamics, can lead to cost overruns and schedule delays. Accurately predicting the consequences of these changes is crucial for effective project control and informed decision-making. This study aims to develop predictive models to estimate the impact of scope changes on project cost and schedule using machine learning techniques. The research utilizes a comprehensive dataset containing detailed information on project tasks, including the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS), task type, productivity rate, estimated cost, actual cost, duration, task dependencies, scope change magnitude, and scope change timing. Multiple machine learning models are developed and evaluated to predict the impact of scope changes on project cost and schedule. These models include Linear Regression, Decision Tree, Ridge Regression, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and XGBoost. The dataset is split into training and testing sets, and the models are trained using the preprocessed data. Model robustness and generalization are assessed using cross-validation techniques. To evaluate the performance of models, we use Mean Squared Error (MSE) and R2. Residual plots are generated to assess the goodness of fit and identify any patterns or outliers. Hyperparameter tuning is performed to optimize the XGBoost model and improve its predictive accuracy. The study identifies the most influential project attributes in determining the magnitude of cost and schedule deviations caused by scope modifications. It is identified that productivity rate, scope change magnitude, task dependencies, estimated cost, actual cost, duration, and specific WBS elements are powerful predictors.
Randomized-Grid Search for Hyperparameter Tuning in Decision Tree Model to Improve Performance of Cardiovascular Disease Classification
Pathak, Abhay Kumar, Chaubey, Mrityunjay, Gupta, Manjari
Cardiovascular disease refers to any critical condition that impacts the heart. Because heart diseases can be life-threatening. Researchers are focusing on designing smart systems to accurately diagnose them based on electronic health data, with the aid of machine learning algorithms. Heart disease classification using machine learning (ML) algorithms such as Support Vector Machine(SVM), Na\"ive Bayes(NB), Decision Trees (DTs) and Random Forests (RFs) are often hindered by overfitting. These ML algorithms need extensive hyperparameter tuning. Random Search offers a faster, and, more efficient exploration of hyperparameter space, but, it may overlook optimal regions. Grid Search, though exhaustive, but, it is computationally expensive and inefficient, particularly with high-dimensional data. To address these limitations, Randomized-Grid Search, a novel hybrid optimization method is proposed that combines the global exploration strengths of Random Search with the focused, and, exhaustive search of Grid Search in the most promising regions. This hybrid approach efficiently balances exploration and exploitation. The proposed model optimizes the hyperparameter for Decision Tree model. The proposed model is applied to UCI heart disease dataset for classification. It enhances model performance, provides improved accuracy, generalization, and computational efficiency. Experimental results demonstrate that Randomized-Grid Search outperforms traditional methods by significant margins. The proposed model provides a more effective solution for machine learning applications in healthcare diagnosis.
AI2T: Building Trustable AI Tutors by Interactively Teaching a Self-Aware Learning Agent
Weitekamp, Daniel, Harpstead, Erik, Koedinger, Kenneth
AI2T is an interactively teachable AI for authoring intelligent tutoring systems (ITSs). Authors tutor AI2T by providing a few step-by-step solutions and then grading AI2T's own problem-solving attempts. From just 20-30 minutes of interactive training, AI2T can induce robust rules for step-by-step solution tracking (i.e., model-tracing). As AI2T learns it can accurately estimate its certainty of performing correctly on unseen problem steps using STAND: a self-aware precondition learning algorithm that outperforms state-of-the-art methods like XGBoost. Our user study shows that authors can use STAND's certainty heuristic to estimate when AI2T has been trained on enough diverse problems to induce correct and complete model-tracing programs. AI2T-induced programs are more reliable than hallucination-prone LLMs and prior authoring-by-tutoring approaches. With its self-aware induction of hierarchical rules, AI2T offers a path toward trustable data-efficient authoring-by-tutoring for complex ITSs that normally require as many as 200-300 hours of programming per hour of instruction.
Can a Single Tree Outperform an Entire Forest?
The prevailing mindset is that a single decision tree underperforms classic random forests in testing accuracy, despite its advantages in interpretability and lightweight structure. This study challenges such a mindset by significantly improving the testing accuracy of an oblique regression tree through our gradient-based entire tree optimization framework, making its performance comparable to the classic random forest. Our approach reformulates tree training as a differentiable unconstrained optimization task, employing a scaled sigmoid approximation strategy. To ameliorate numerical instability, we propose an algorithmic scheme that solves a sequence of increasingly accurate approximations. Additionally, a subtree polish strategy is implemented to reduce approximation errors accumulated across the tree. Extensive experiments on 16 datasets demonstrate that our optimized tree outperforms the classic random forest by an average of $2.03\%$ improvements in testing accuracy.
BERT-Based Approach for Automating Course Articulation Matrix Construction with Explainable AI
Shiferaw, Natenaile Asmamaw, Leandre, Simpenzwe Honore, Sinha, Aman, Rout, Dillip
Course Outcome (CO) and Program Outcome (PO)/Program-Specific Outcome (PSO) alignment is a crucial task for ensuring curriculum coherence and assessing educational effectiveness. The construction of a Course Articulation Matrix (CAM), which quantifies the relationship between COs and POs/PSOs, typically involves assigning numerical values (0, 1, 2, 3) to represent the degree of alignment. In this study, We experiment with four models from the BERT family: BERT Base, DistilBERT, ALBERT, and RoBERTa, and use multiclass classification to assess the alignment between CO and PO/PSO pairs. We first evaluate traditional machine learning classifiers, such as Decision Tree, Random Forest, and XGBoost, and then apply transfer learning to evaluate the performance of the pretrained BERT models. To enhance model interpretability, we apply Explainable AI technique, specifically Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME), to provide transparency into the decision-making process. Our system achieves accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score values of 98.66%, 98.67%, 98.66%, and 98.66%, respectively. This work demonstrates the potential of utilizing transfer learning with BERT-based models for the automated generation of CAMs, offering high performance and interpretability in educational outcome assessment.
Comprehensive Methodology for Sample Augmentation in EEG Biomarker Studies for Alzheimers Risk Classification
Isaza, Veronica Henao, Aguillon, David, Quintero, Carlos Andres Tobon, Lopera, Francisco, Gomez, John Fredy Ochoa
Background: Dementia, characterized by progressive cognitive decline, is a major global health challenge. Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the predominant type, accounting for approximately 70% of dementia cases worldwide. Electroencephalography (EEG)-derived measures have shown potential in identifying AD risk, but obtaining sufficiently large samples for reliable comparisons remains a challenge. Objective: This study implements a comprehensive methodology that integrates signal processing, data harmonization, and statistical techniques to increase sample size and improve the reliability of Alzheimer's disease risk classification models. Methods: We used a multi-step approach combining advanced EEG preprocessing, feature extraction, harmonization techniques, and propensity score matching (PSM) to optimize the balance between healthy non-carriers (HC) and asymptomatic E280A mutation Alzheimer's disease carriers (ACr). Data were harmonized across four databases, adjusting for site effects while preserving important covariate effects such as age and sex. PSM was applied at different ratios (2:1, 5:1, and 10:1) to explore the impact of sample size differences on model performance. The final dataset was subjected to machine learning analysis using decision trees, with cross-validation to ensure robust model performance.