The perspective of developing trustworthy AI for critical applications in science and engineering requires machine learning techniques that are capable of estimating their own uncertainty. In the context of regression, instead of estimating a conditional mean, this can be achieved by producing a predictive interval for the output, or to even learn a model of the conditional probability $p(y|x)$ of an output $y$ given input features $x$. While this can be done under parametric assumptions with, e.g. generalized linear model, these are typically too strong, and non-parametric models offer flexible alternatives. In particular, for scalar outputs, learning directly a model of the conditional cumulative distribution function of $y$ given $x$ can lead to more precise probabilistic estimates, and the use of proper scoring rules such as the weighted interval score (WIS) and the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) lead to better coverage and calibration properties. This paper introduces novel algorithms for learning probabilistic regression trees for the WIS or CRPS loss functions. These algorithms are made computationally efficient thanks to an appropriate use of known data structures - namely min-max heaps, weight-balanced binary trees and Fenwick trees. Through numerical experiments, we demonstrate that the performance of our methods is competitive with alternative approaches. Additionally, our methods benefit from the inherent interpretability and explainability of trees. As a by-product, we show how our trees can be used in the context of conformal prediction and explain why they are particularly well-suited for achieving group-conditional coverage guarantees.

Recent research has shown that machine learning models are vulnerable to privacy attacks targeting their training data. Differential privacy (DP) has become a widely adopted countermeasure, as it offers rigorous privacy protections. In this paper, we introduce a reconstruction attack targeting state-of-the-art $\varepsilon$-DP random forests. By leveraging a constraint programming model that incorporates knowledge of the forest's structure and DP mechanism characteristics, our approach formally reconstructs the most likely dataset that could have produced a given forest. Through extensive computational experiments, we examine the interplay between model utility, privacy guarantees, and reconstruction accuracy across various configurations. Our results reveal that random forests trained with meaningful DP guarantees can still leak substantial portions of their training data. Specifically, while DP reduces the success of reconstruction attacks, the only forests fully robust to our attack exhibit predictive performance no better than a constant classifier. Building on these insights, we provide practical recommendations for the construction of DP random forests that are more resilient to reconstruction attacks and maintain non-trivial predictive performance.

The advent of Machine Learning as a Service (MLaaS) has heightened the trade-off between model explainability and security. In particular, explainability techniques, such as counterfactual explanations, inadvertently increase the risk of model extraction attacks, enabling unauthorized replication of proprietary models. In this paper, we formalize and characterize the risks and inherent complexity of model reconstruction, focusing on the "oracle'' queries required for faithfully inferring the underlying prediction function. We present the first formal analysis of model extraction attacks through the lens of competitive analysis, establishing a foundational framework to evaluate their efficiency. Focusing on models based on additive decision trees (e.g., decision trees, gradient boosting, and random forests), we introduce novel reconstruction algorithms that achieve provably perfect fidelity while demonstrating strong anytime performance. Our framework provides theoretical bounds on the query complexity for extracting tree-based model, offering new insights into the security vulnerabilities of their deployment.

Neural architectures such as Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), Transformers, and State-Space Models have shown great success in handling sequential data by learning temporal dependencies. Decision Trees (DTs), on the other hand, remain a widely used class of models for structured tabular data but are typically not designed to capture sequential patterns directly. Instead, DT-based approaches for time-series data often rely on feature engineering, such as manually incorporating lag features, which can be suboptimal for capturing complex temporal dependencies. To address this limitation, we introduce ReMeDe Trees, a novel recurrent DT architecture that integrates an internal memory mechanism, similar to RNNs, to learn long-term dependencies in sequential data. Our model learns hard, axis-aligned decision rules for both output generation and state updates, optimizing them efficiently via gradient descent. We provide a proof-of-concept study on synthetic benchmarks to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

In the growing terrain of the Internet of Things (IoT), it is vital that networks are secure to protect against a range of cyber threats. Based on the strong machine learning framework, this study proposes novel lightweight ensemble approaches for improving multi-class attack detection of IoT devices. Using the large CICIoT 2023 dataset with 34 attack types distributed amongst 10 attack categories, we systematically evaluated the performance of a wide variety of modern machine learning methods with the aim of establishing the best-performing algorithmic choice to secure IoT applications. In particular, we explore approaches based on ML classifiers to tackle the biocharges characterized by the challenging and heterogeneous nature of attack vectors in IoT environments. The method that performed best was the Decision Tree, with an accuracy of 99.56% and an F1 score of 99.62%, showing that this model is capable of accurately and reliably detecting threats.The Random Forest model was the next best-performing model with 98.22% and an F1 score of 98.24%, suggesting that ML methods are quite effective in a situation of high-dimensional data. Our results highlight the potential for using ML classifiers in bolstering security for IoT devices and also serve as motivations for future investigations targeting scalable, keystroke-based attack detection systems. We believe that our method provides a new path to develop complex machine learning algorithms for low-resource IoT devices, balancing both accuracy and time efficiency needs. In summary, these contributions enrich the state of the art of the IoT security literature, laying down solid ground and guidelines for the deployment of smart, adaptive security in IoT settings.

Student performance prediction is one of the most important subjects in educational data mining. As a modern technology, machine learning offers powerful capabilities in feature extraction and data modeling, providing essential support for diverse application scenarios, as evidenced by recent studies confirming its effectiveness in educational data mining. However, despite extensive prediction experiments, machine learning methods have not been effectively integrated into practical teaching strategies, hindering their application in modern education. In addition, massive features as input variables for machine learning algorithms often leads to information redundancy, which can negatively impact prediction accuracy. Therefore, how to effectively use machine learning methods to predict student performance and integrate the prediction results with actual teaching scenarios is a worthy research subject. To this end, this study integrates the results of machine learning-based student performance prediction with tiered instruction, aiming to enhance student outcomes in target course, which is significant for the application of educational data mining in contemporary teaching scenarios. Specifically, we collect original educational data and perform feature selection to reduce information redundancy. Then, the performance of five representative machine learning methods is analyzed and discussed with Random Forest showing the best performance. Furthermore, based on the results of the classification of students, tiered instruction is applied accordingly, and different teaching objectives and contents are set for all levels of students. The comparison of teaching outcomes between the control and experimental classes, along with the analysis of questionnaire results, demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

Estimating the mean-variance efficient (MVE) frontier is crucial for asset pricing and investment management. Yet, estimating the tangency portfolio (Markowitz, 1952) using the unbalanced panel of thousands of individual asset returns proves impracticable. Empirical studies typically consider a "diversified" set of test assets (e.g., ME-BM 25 portfolios) to estimate and evaluate factor models, hoping these test assets or a few common factors can span the same efficient frontier as individual assets. However, popular factor models hardly explain the cross section of conventional prespecified test assets (e.g., Kozak et al., 2018; Lopez-Lira and Roussanov, 2020), not to mention the ad hoc nature of these test assets hampers the effectiveness of model estimations and evaluations (Lewellen et al., 2010; Ang et al., 2020). For example, characteristics-based test assets are often limited to univariate-and bivariate-sorted portfolios due to the challenges of high-dimensional sorting (Cochrane, 2011), overlooking nonlinearity and asymmetric interactions (that do not uniformly apply to all assets), even with dependent sorting (Daniel et al., 1997).

Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) is one of the most popular machine learning models in various applications. However, in the traditional settings, all data should be simultaneously accessed in the training procedure: it does not allow to add or delete any data instances after training. In this paper, we propose an efficient online learning framework for GBDT supporting both incremental and decremental learning. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that considers an in-place unified incremental and decremental learning on GBDT. To reduce the learning cost, we present a collection of optimizations for our framework, so that it can add or delete a small fraction of data on the fly. We theoretically show the relationship between the hyper-parameters of the proposed optimizations, which enables trading off accuracy and cost on incremental and decremental learning. The backdoor attack results show that our framework can successfully inject and remove backdoor in a well-trained model using incremental and decremental learning, and the empirical results on public datasets confirm the effectiveness and efficiency of our proposed online learning framework and optimizations.

Training data used for developing machine learning classifiers can exhibit biases against specific protected attributes. Such biases typically originate from historical discrimination or certain underlying patterns that disproportionately under-represent minority groups, such as those identified by their gender, religion, or race. In this paper, we propose a novel approach, FairUDT, a fairness-aware Uplift-based Decision Tree for discrimination identification. FairUDT demonstrates how the integration of uplift modeling with decision trees can be adapted to include fair splitting criteria. Additionally, we introduce a modified leaf relabeling approach for removing discrimination. We divide our dataset into favored and deprived groups based on a binary sensitive attribute, with the favored dataset serving as the treatment group and the deprived dataset as the control group. By applying FairUDT and our leaf relabeling approach to preprocess three benchmark datasets, we achieve an acceptable accuracy-discrimination tradeoff. We also show that FairUDT is inherently interpretable and can be utilized in discrimination detection tasks. The code for this project is available https://github.com/ara-25/FairUDT

The goal of conversational product search (CPS) is to develop an intelligent, chat-based shopping assistant that can directly interact with customers to understand shopping intents, ask clarification questions, and find relevant products. However, training such assistants is hindered mainly due to the lack of reliable and large-scale datasets. Prior human-annotated CPS datasets are extremely small in size and lack integration with real-world product search systems. We propose a novel approach, TRACER, which leverages large language models (LLMs) to generate realistic and natural conversations for different shopping domains. TRACER's novelty lies in grounding the generation to dialogue plans, which are product search trajectories predicted from a decision tree model, that guarantees relevant product discovery in the shortest number of search conditions. We also release the first target-oriented CPS dataset Wizard of Shopping (WoS), containing highly natural and coherent conversations (3.6k) from three shopping domains. Finally, we demonstrate the quality and effectiveness of WoS via human evaluations and downstream tasks.