We propose here a generalization of regression trees, referred to as Probabilistic Regression (PR) trees, that adapt to the smoothness of the prediction function relating input and output variables while preserving the interpretability of the prediction and being robust to noise. In PR trees, an observation is associated to all regions of a tree through a probability distribution that reflects how far the observation is to a region. We show that such trees are consistent, meaning that their error tends to 0 when the sample size tends to infinity, a property that has not been established for similar, previous proposals as Soft trees and Smooth Transition Regression trees. We further explain how PR trees can be used in different ensemble methods, namely Random Forests and Gradient Boosted Trees. Lastly, we assess their performance through extensive experiments that illustrate their benefits in terms of performance, interpretability and robustness to noise.

We propose a simple extension of {\sl top-down decision tree learning heuristics} such as ID3, C4.5, and CART. Our algorithm achieves provable guarantees for all target functions $f: \{-1,1\}^n \to \{-1,1\}$ with respect to the uniform distribution, circumventing impossibility results showing that existing heuristics fare poorly even for simple target functions. The crux of our extension is a new splitting criterion that takes into account the correlations between $f$ and {\sl small subsets} of its attributes.

We show that top-down decision tree learning heuristics (such as ID3, C4.5, and CART) are amenable to highly efficient {\sl learnability estimation}: for monotone target functions, the error of the decision tree hypothesis constructed by these heuristics can be estimated with {\sl polylogarithmically} many labeled examples, exponentially smaller than the number necessary to run these heuristics, and indeed, exponentially smaller than information-theoretic minimum required to learn a good decision tree. This adds to a small but growing list of fundamental learning algorithms that have been shown to be amenable to learnability estimation. En route to this result, we design and analyze sample-efficient {\sl minibatch} versions of top-down decision tree learning heuristics and show that they achieve the same provable guarantees as the full-batch versions. We further give ``active local'' versions of these heuristics: given a test point $x^\star$, we show how the label $T(x^\star)$ of the decision tree hypothesis $T$ can be computed with polylogarithmically many labeled examples, exponentially smaller than the number necessary to learn~$T$.

Semi-supervised learning seeks to learn a machine learning model when only a small amount of the available data is labeled. The most widespread approach uses a graph prior, which encourages similar instances to have similar predictions. This has been very successful with models ranging from kernel machines to neural networks, but has remained inapplicable to decision trees, for which the optimization problem is much harder. We solve this based on a reformulation of the problem which requires iteratively solving two simpler problems: a supervised tree learning problem, which can be solved by the Tree Alternating Optimization algorithm; and a label smoothing problem, which can be solved through a sparse linear system. The algorithm is scalable and highly effective even with very few labeled instances, and makes it possible to learn accurate, interpretable models based on decision trees in such situations.

Random forests are some of the most widely used machine learning models today, especially in domains that necessitate interpretability. We present an algorithm that accelerates the training of random forests and other popular tree-based learning methods. At the core of our algorithm is a novel node-splitting subroutine, dubbed MABSplit, used to efficiently find split points when constructing decision trees. Our algorithm borrows techniques from the multi-armed bandit literature to judiciously determine how to allocate samples and computational power across candidate split points. We provide theoretical guarantees that MABSplit improves the sample complexity of each node split from linear to logarithmic in the number of data points. In some settings, MABSplit leads to 100x faster training (an 99% reduction in training time) without any decrease in generalization performance. We demonstrate similar speedups when MABSplit is used across a variety of forest-based variants, such as Extremely Random Forests and Random Patches. We also show our algorithm can be used in both classification and regression tasks. Finally, we show that MABSplit outperforms existing methods in generalization performance and feature importance calculations under a fixed computational budget.

Feature and Interaction Importance (FII) methods are essential in supervised learning for assessing the relevance of input variables and their interactions in complex prediction models. In many domains, such as personalized medicine, local interpretations for individual predictions are often required, rather than global scores summarizing overall feature importance. Random Forests (RFs) are widely used in these settings, and existing interpretability methods typically exploit tree structures and split statistics to provide model-specific insights. However, theoretical understanding of local FII methods for RF remains limited, making it unclear how to interpret high importance scores for individual predictions. We propose a novel, local, model-specific FII method that identifies frequent co-occurrences of features along decision paths, combining global patterns with those observed on paths specific to a given test point. We prove that our method consistently recovers the true local signal features and their interactions under a Locally Spike Sparse (LSS) model and also identifies whether large or small feature values drive a prediction. We illustrate the usefulness of our method and theoretical results through simulation studies and a real-world data example.

We consider a regression setting where observations are collected in different environments modeled by different data distributions. The field of out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization aims to design methods that generalize better to test environments whose distributions differ from those observed during training. One line of such works has proposed to minimize the maximum risk across environments, a principle that we refer to as MaxRM (Maximum Risk Minimization). In this work, we introduce variants of random forests based on the principle of MaxRM. We provide computationally efficient algorithms and prove statistical consistency for our primary method. Our proposed method can be used with each of the following three risks: the mean squared error, the negative reward (which relates to the explained variance), and the regret (which quantifies the excess risk relative to the best predictor). For MaxRM with regret as the risk, we prove a novel out-of-sample guarantee over unseen test distributions. Finally, we evaluate the proposed methods on both simulated and real-world data.

Tabular data have been playing a vital role in diverse real-world fields, including healthcare, finance, etc. With the recent success of Large Language Models (LLMs), early explorations of extending LLMs to the domain of tabular data have been developed. Most of these LLM-based methods typically first serialize tabular data into natural language descriptions, and then tune LLMs or directly infer on these serialized data. However, these methods suffer from two key inherent issues: (i) data perspective: existing data serialization methods lack universal applicability for structured tabular data, and may pose privacy risks through direct textual exposure, and (ii) model perspective: LLM fine-tuning methods struggle with tabular data, and in-context learning scalability is bottle-necked by input length constraints (suitable for few-shot learning). This work explores a novel direction of integrating LLMs into tabular data throughough logical decision tree rules as intermediaries, proposes a decision tree enhancer with LLM-derived rule for tabular prediction, DeLTa. The proposed DeLTa avoids tabular data serialization, and can be applied to full data learning setting without LLM fine-tuning. Specifically, we leverage the reasoning ability of LLMs to redesign an improved rule given a set of decision tree rules. Furthermore, we provide a calibration method for original decision trees via new generated rule by LLM, which approximates the error correction vector to steer the original decision tree predictions in the direction of ``errors'' reducing. Finally, extensive experiments on diverse tabular benchmarks show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Classification of functional data where observations are curves or trajectories poses unique challenges, particularly under severe class imbalance. Traditional Random Forest algorithms, while robust for tabular data, often fail to capture the intrinsic structure of functional observations and struggle with minority class detection. This paper introduces Functional Random Forest with Adaptive Cost-Sensitive Splitting (FRF-ACS), a novel ensemble framework designed for imbalanced functional data classification. The proposed method leverages basis expansions and Functional Principal Component Analysis (FPCA) to represent curves efficiently, enabling trees to operate on low dimensional functional features. To address imbalance, we incorporate a dynamic cost sensitive splitting criterion that adjusts class weights locally at each node, combined with a hybrid sampling strategy integrating functional SMOTE and weighted bootstrapping. Additionally, curve specific similarity metrics replace traditional Euclidean measures to preserve functional characteristics during leaf assignment. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real world datasets including biomedical signals and sensor trajectories demonstrate that FRF-ACS significantly improves minority class recall and overall predictive performance compared to existing functional classifiers and imbalance handling techniques. This work provides a scalable, interpretable solution for high dimensional functional data analysis in domains where minority class detection is critical.

We study estimation of the conditional law $P(Y|X=\mathbf{x})$ and continuous functionals $Ψ(P(Y|X=\mathbf{x}))$ when $Y$ takes values in a locally compact Polish space, $X \in \mathbb{R}^p$, and the observations arise from a complex survey design. We propose a survey-calibrated distributional random forest (SDRF) that incorporates complex-design features via a pseudo-population bootstrap, PSU-level honesty, and a Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) split criterion computed from kernel mean embeddings of Hájek-type (design-weighted) node distributions. We provide a framework for analyzing forest-style estimators under survey designs; establish design consistency for the finite-population target and model consistency for the super-population target under explicit conditions on the design, kernel, resampling multipliers, and tree partitions. As far as we are aware, these are the first results on model-free estimation of conditional distributions under survey designs. Simulations under a stratified two-stage cluster design provide finite sample performance and demonstrate the statistical error price of ignoring the survey design. The broad applicability of SDRF is demonstrated using NHANES: We estimate the tolerance regions of the conditional joint distribution of two diabetes biomarkers, illustrating how distributional heterogeneity can support subgroup-specific risk profiling for diabetes mellitus in the U.S. population.