In this paper, we describe a dataset relating to cellular and physical conditions of patients who are operated upon to remove colorectal tumours. This data provides a unique insight into immunological status at the point of tumour removal, tumour classification and post-operative survival. Attempts are made to learn relationships between attributes (physical and immunological) and the resulting tumour stage and survival. Results for conventional machine learning approaches can be considered poor, especially for predicting tumour stages for the most important types of cancer. This poor performance is further investigated and compared with a synthetic, dataset based on the logical exclusive-OR function and it is shown that there is a significant level of 'anti-learning' present in all supervised methods used and this can be explained by the highly dimensional, complex and sparsely representative dataset. For predicting the stage of cancer from the immunological attributes, anti-learning approaches outperform a range of popular algorithms.

Machine Learning (ML) algorithms are used to train computers to perform a variety of complex tasks and improve with experience. Computers learn how to recognize patterns, make unintended decisions, or react to a dynamic environment. Certain trained machines may be more effective than others because they are based on more suitable ML algorithms or because they were trained through superior training sets. Although ML algorithms are known and publicly released, training sets may not be reasonably ascertainable and, indeed, may be guarded as trade secrets. While much research has been performed about the privacy of the elements of training sets, in this paper we focus our attention on ML classifiers and on the statistical information that can be unconsciously or maliciously revealed from them. We show that it is possible to infer unexpected but useful information from ML classifiers. In particular, we build a novel meta-classifier and train it to hack other classifiers, obtaining meaningful information about their training sets. This kind of information leakage can be exploited, for example, by a vendor to build more effective classifiers or to simply acquire trade secrets from a competitor's apparatus, potentially violating its intellectual property rights.

Many machine learning (ML) approaches are widely used to generate bioclimatic models for prediction of geographic range of organism as a function of climate. Applications such as prediction of range shift in organism, range of invasive species influenced by climate change are important parameters in understanding the impact of climate change. However, success of machine learning-based approaches depends on a number of factors. While it can be safely said that no particular ML technique can be effective in all applications and success of a technique is predominantly dependent on the application or the type of the problem, it is useful to understand their behaviour to ensure informed choice of techniques. This paper presents a comprehensive review of machine learning-based bioclimatic model generation and analyses the factors influencing success of such models. Considering the wide use of statistical techniques, in our discussion we also include conventional statistical techniques used in bioclimatic modelling.

In data analysis, latent variables play a central role because they help provide powerful insights into a wide variety of phenomena, ranging from biological to human sciences. The latent tree model, a particular type of probabilistic graphical models, deserves attention. Its simple structure - a tree - allows simple and efficient inference, while its latent variables capture complex relationships. In the past decade, the latent tree model has been subject to significant theoretical and methodological developments. In this review, we propose a comprehensive study of this model. First we summarize key ideas underlying the model. Second we explain how it can be efficiently learned from data. Third we illustrate its use within three types of applications: latent structure discovery, multidimensional clustering, and probabilistic inference. Finally, we conclude and give promising directions for future researches in this field.

The impact of random choices is important to many ensemble classifiers algorithms, and the Random Forests is particularly sensible to pseudo-random number generation decisions.This paper proposes an extension to the classical Random Forests method that aims to reduce its sensibility to randomness.The benefits brought by such extension are illustrated by a large number of experiments over 32 different public data sets.

As a testament to their success, the theory of random forests has long been outpaced by their application in practice. In this paper, we take a step towards narrowing this gap by providing a consistency result for online random forests.

We present a new classification method for quasar identification in the EROS-2 and MACHO datasets based on a boosted version of Random Forest classifier. We use a set of variability features including parameters of a continuous auto regressive model. We prove that continuous auto regressive parameters are very important discriminators in the classification process. We create two training sets (one for EROS-2 and one for MACHO datasets) using known quasars found in the LMC. Our model's accuracy in both EROS-2 and MACHO training sets is about 90% precision and 86% recall, improving the state of the art models accuracy in quasar detection. We apply the model on the complete, including 28 million objects, EROS-2 and MACHO LMC datasets, finding 1160 and 2551 candidates respectively. To further validate our list of candidates, we crossmatched our list with a previous 663 known strong candidates, getting 74% of matches for MACHO and 40% in EROS-2. The main difference on matching level is because EROS-2 is a slightly shallower survey which translates to significantly lower signal-to-noise ratio lightcurves.

This paper considers the problem of invoking auxiliary, unobservable variables to facilitate the structuring of causal tree models for a given set of continuous variables. Paralleling the treatment of bi-valued variables in [Pearl 1986], we show that if a collection of coupled variables are governed by a joint normal distribution and a tree-structured representation exists, then both the topology and all internal relationships of the tree can be uncovered by observing pairwise dependencies among the observed variables (i.e., the leaves of the tree). Furthermore, the conditions for normally distributed variables are less restrictive than those governing bi-valued variables. The result extends the applications of causal tree models which were found useful in evidential reasoning tasks.

Decision tree induction systems are being used for knowledge acquisition in noisy domains. This paper develops a subjective Bayesian interpretation of the task tackled by these systems and the heuristic methods they use. It is argued that decision tree systems implicitly incorporate a prior belief that the simpler (in terms of decision tree complexity) of two hypotheses be preferred, all else being equal, and that they perform a greedy search of the space of decision rules to find one in which there is strong posterior belief. A number of improvements to these systems are then suggested.

This paper describes experiments, on two domains, to investigate the effect of averaging over predictions of multiple decision trees, instead of using a single tree. Other authors have pointed out theoretical and commonsense reasons for preferring the multiple tree approach. Ideally, we would like to consider predictions from all trees, weighted by their probability. However, there is a vast number of different trees, and it is difficult to estimate the probability of each tree. We sidestep the estimation problem by using a modified version of the ID3 algorithm to build good trees, and average over only these trees. Our results are encouraging. For each domain, we managed to produce a small number of good trees. We find that it is best to average across sets of trees with different structure; this usually gives better performance than any of the constituent trees, including the ID3 tree.