Western societies are facing demographic challenges due the rapid aging of their population. In this context, economic and social issues are emerging, such as an increasing number of elderly in need of home cares and a shortage of caregivers. Smart home technology has imposed itself as a potential avenue of solution to these important issues. Its goal is to provide adapted assistance to a semi-autonomous resident in the form of hints, suggestions, reminders, and to take preventive actions, for instance turning off the oven, in the case of an emergency. The main scientific challenge related to this kind of assistance concerns the problem of recognizing, in real time, of the on-going activities of the resident in order to provide punctual guidance for the completion of everyday tasks. In the literature, the majority of the proposed solutions for activity recognition exploit a complex and expensive network of intrusive sensors (i.e. infrared, radio-identification, electromagnetic, pressure, cameras, etc.). A recent and innovative way of performing activity recognition is based on the monitoring of electrical household appliances by analyzing the electrical signals solely at the main panel. This approach is less intrusive and required only one sensor. In this paper, we present new advancements in that field, which take the form of an efficient method for recognizing electrical appliances within smart home based on the analysis of the features of the load signatures (active and reactive power, FFT) and on the use of the C4.5 algorithm to extract decision trees. This method has been implemented and tested in real smart home infrastructure showing that it is economical, simple and efficient.

This paper uses natural language processing to create the first machine-coded democracy index, which I call Automated Democracy Scores (ADS). The ADS are based on 42 million news articles from 6,043 different sources and cover all independent countries in the 1993-2012 period. Unlike the democracy indices we have today the ADS are replicable and have standard errors small enough to actually distinguish between cases. The ADS are produced with supervised learning. Three approaches are tried: a) a combination of Latent Semantic Analysis and tree-based regression methods; b) a combination of Latent Dirichlet Allocation and tree-based regression methods; and c) the Wordscores algorithm. The Wordscores algorithm outperforms the alternatives, so it is the one on which the ADS are based. There is a web application where anyone can change the training set and see how the results change: democracy-scores.org

We seek decision rules for prediction-time cost reduction, where complete data is available for training, but during prediction-time, each feature can only be acquired for an additional cost. We propose a novel random forest algorithm to minimize prediction error for a user-specified {\it average} feature acquisition budget. While random forests yield strong generalization performance, they do not explicitly account for feature costs and furthermore require low correlation among trees, which amplifies costs. Our random forest grows trees with low acquisition cost and high strength based on greedy minimax cost-weighted-impurity splits. Theoretically, we establish near-optimal acquisition cost guarantees for our algorithm. Empirically, on a number of benchmark datasets we demonstrate superior accuracy-cost curves against state-of-the-art prediction-time algorithms.

Additive regression trees are flexible non-parametric models and popular off-the-shelf tools for real-world non-linear regression. In application domains, such as bioinformatics, where there is also demand for probabilistic predictions with measures of uncertainty, the Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) model, introduced by Chipman et al. (2010), is increasingly popular. As data sets have grown in size, however, the standard Metropolis-Hastings algorithms used to perform inference in BART are proving inadequate. In particular, these Markov chains make local changes to the trees and suffer from slow mixing when the data are high-dimensional or the best fitting trees are more than a few layers deep. We present a novel sampler for BART based on the Particle Gibbs (PG) algorithm (Andrieu et al., 2010) and a top-down particle filtering algorithm for Bayesian decision trees (Lakshminarayanan et al., 2013). Rather than making local changes to individual trees, the PG sampler proposes a complete tree to fit the residual. Experiments show that the PG sampler outperforms existing samplers in many settings.

Random Forests [Breiman:2001] (RF) are a fully non-parametric statistical method requiring no distributional assumptions on covariate relation to the response. RF are a robust, nonlinear technique that optimizes predictive accuracy by fitting an ensemble of trees to stabilize model estimates. The randomForestSRC package (http://cran.r-project.org/package=randomForestSRC) is a unified treatment of Breiman's random forests for survival, regression and classification problems. Predictive accuracy make RF an attractive alternative to parametric models, though complexity and interpretability of the forest hinder wider application of the method. We introduce the ggRandomForests package (http://cran.r-project.org/package=ggRandomForests), for visually understand random forest models grown in R with the randomForestSRC package. The vignette is a tutorial for using the ggRandomForests package with the randomForestSRC package for building and post-processing a regression random forest. In this tutorial, we explore a random forest model for the Boston Housing Data, available in the MASS package. We grow a random forest for regression and demonstrate how ggRandomForests can be used when determining variable associations, interactions and how the response depends on predictive variables within the model. The tutorial demonstrates the design and usage of many of ggRandomForests functions and features how to modify and customize the resulting ggplot2 graphic objects along the way. A development version of the ggRandomForests package is available on Github. We invite comments, feature requests and bug reports for this package at (https://github.com/ehrlinger/ggRandomForests).

Falling rule lists are classification models consisting of an ordered list of if-then rules, where (i) the order of rules determines which example should be classified by each rule, and (ii) the estimated probability of success decreases monotonically down the list. These kinds of rule lists are inspired by healthcare applications where patients would be stratified into risk sets and the highest at-risk patients should be considered first. We provide a Bayesian framework for learning falling rule lists that does not rely on traditional greedy decision tree learning methods.

In (\cite{zhang2014nonlinear,zhang2014nonlinear2}), we have viewed machine learning as a coding and dimensionality reduction problem, and further proposed a simple unsupervised dimensionality reduction method, entitled deep distributed random samplings (DDRS). In this paper, we further extend it to supervised learning incrementally. The key idea here is to incorporate label information into the coding process by reformulating that each center in DDRS has multiple output units indicating which class the center belongs to. The supervised learning method seems somewhat similar with random forests (\cite{breiman2001random}), here we emphasize their differences as follows. (i) Each layer of our method considers the relationship between part of the data points in training data with all training data points, while random forests focus on building each decision tree on only part of training data points independently. (ii) Our method builds gradually-narrowed network by sampling less and less data points, while random forests builds gradually-narrowed network by merging subclasses. (iii) Our method is trained more straightforward from bottom layer to top layer, while random forests build each tree from top layer to bottom layer by splitting. (iv) Our method encodes output targets implicitly in sparse codes, while random forests encode output targets by remembering the class attributes of the activated nodes. Therefore, our method is a simpler, more straightforward, and maybe a better alternative choice, though both methods use two very basic elements---randomization and nearest neighbor optimization---as the core. This preprint is used to protect the incremental idea from (\cite{zhang2014nonlinear,zhang2014nonlinear2}). Full empirical evaluation will be announced carefully later.

The two outstanding figures in the history of computer science are Alan Turing and John von Neumann, and they shared the view that logic was the key to understanding and automating computation. In particular, it was Turing who gave us in the mid-1930s the fundamental analysis, and the logical definition, of the concept of'computability by machine' and who discovered the surprising and beautiful basic fact that there exist universal machines which by suitable programming can be made to t This essay is an expanded and revised version of one entitled The Role of Logic in Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence, which was completed in January 1992 (and was later published in the Proceedings of the Fifth Generation computer Systems 1992 Conference). Since completing that essay I have had the benefit of extremely helpful discussions on many of the details with Professor Donald Michie and Professor I. J. Good, both of whom knew Turing well during the war years at Bletchley Park. Professor J. A. N. Lee, whose knowledge of the literature and archives of the history of computing is encyclopedic, also provided additional information, some of which is still unpublished. Further light has very recently been shed on the von Neumann side of the story by Norman Macrae's excellent biography John von Neumann (Macrae 1992). Accordingly, it seemed appropriate to undertake a more complete and thorough version of the FGCS'92 essay, focussing somewhat more on the interesting historical and biographical issues. I am grateful to Donald Michie and Stephen Muggleton for inviting me to contribute such a'second edition' to the present volume, and I would also like to thank the Institute for New Computer Technology (ICOT) for kind permission to make use of the FGCS'92 essay in this way. 1 LOGIC, COMPUTERS, TURING, AND VON NEUMANN

The aim of the Stat Log project is to compare the performance of statistical, machine learning, and neural network algorithms, on large real world problems. This paper describes the completed work on classification in the StatLog project. Classification is here defined to be the problem, given a set of multivariate data with assigned classes, of estimating the probability from a set of attributes describing a new example sampled from the same source that it has a pre-defined class. We gathered together a representative collection of algorithms from statistics (Naive Bayes, K-nearest Neighbour, Kernel density, Linear discriminant, Quadratic discriminant, Logistic regression, Projection pursuit, Bayesian networks), machine learning (CART, C4.5, NewID, AC2, CAL5, CN2, ITrule -- only propositional symbolic algorithms were considered), and neural networks (Backpropagation, Radial basis functions, Kohonen).

When you lose a game of chess to a computer then don't pretend that you didn't think at the game.