Technology experts predict the use of machine learning (ML) in business operations will double towards the end of 2018 as more companies recognize the true value of intelligent technology. Machine learning can solve problems independently without humans at the helm providing routine instructions. The adaptive nature of ML allows the machines to learn consistently and prevent system anomalies. Machine learning is no longer bound to the concepts of productivity and cost reduction. ML is now gathering large sets of data to provide valuable insights to companies as they refine the customer experience and tweak their business operations to gain a competitive advantage in the market.

In recent times, the manufacturing processes are faced with many external or internal (the increase of customized product rescheduling , process reliability,..) changes. Therefore, monitoring and quality management activities for these manufacturing processes are difficult. Thus, the managers need more proactive approaches to deal with this variability. In this study, a proactive quality monitoring and control approach based on classifiers to predict defect occurrences and provide optimal values for factors critical to the quality processes is proposed. In a previous work (Noyel et al. 2013), the classification approach had been used in order to improve the quality of a lacquering process at a company plant; the results obtained are promising, but the accuracy of the classification model used needs to be improved. One way to achieve this is to construct a committee of classifiers (referred to as an ensemble) to obtain a better predictive model than its constituent models. However, the selection of the best classification methods and the construction of the final ensemble still poses a challenging issue. In this study, we focus and analyze the impact of the choice of classifier types on the accuracy of the classifier ensemble; in addition, we explore the effects of the selection criterion and fusion process on the ensemble accuracy as well. Several fusion scenarios were tested and compared based on a real-world case. Our results show that using an ensemble classification leads to an increase in the accuracy of the classifier models. Consequently, the monitoring and control of the considered real-world case can be improved.

Guest written by Rebecca Njeri! What is a Decision Tree? Let's start with a story. Suppose you have a business and you want to acquire some new customers. You also have a limited budget, and you want to ensure that, in advertising, you focus on customers who are the most likely to be converted.

Domestic violence (DV) is a global social and public health issue that is highly gendered. Being able to accurately predict DV recidivism, i.e., re-offending of a previously convicted offender, can speed up and improve risk assessment procedures for police and front-line agencies, better protect victims of DV, and potentially prevent future re-occurrences of DV. Previous work in DV recidivism has employed different classification techniques, including decision tree (DT) induction and logistic regression, where the main focus was on achieving high prediction accuracy. As a result, even the diagrams of trained DTs were often too difficult to interpret due to their size and complexity, making decision-making challenging. Given there is often a trade-off between model accuracy and interpretability, in this work our aim is to employ DT induction to obtain both interpretable trees as well as high prediction accuracy. Specifically, we implement and evaluate different approaches to deal with class imbalance as well as feature selection. Compared to previous work in DV recidivism prediction that employed logistic regression, our approach can achieve comparable area under the ROC curve results by using only 3 of 11 available features and generating understandable decision trees that contain only 4 leaf nodes.

The increasing scale and sophistication of cyberattacks has led to the adoption of machine learning based classification techniques, at the core of cybersecurity systems. These techniques promise scale and accuracy, which traditional rule or signature based methods cannot. However, classifiers operating in adversarial domains are vulnerable to evasion attacks by an adversary, who is capable of learning the behavior of the system by employing intelligently crafted probes. Classification accuracy in such domains provides a false sense of security, as detection can easily be evaded by carefully perturbing the input samples. In this paper, a generic data driven framework is presented, to analyze the vulnerability of classification systems to black box probing based attacks. The framework uses an exploration exploitation based strategy, to understand an adversary's point of view of the attack defense cycle. The adversary assumes a black box model of the defender's classifier and can launch indiscriminate attacks on it, without information of the defender's model type, training data or the domain of application. Experimental evaluation on 10 real world datasets demonstrates that even models having high perceived accuracy (>90%), by a defender, can be effectively circumvented with a high evasion rate (>95%, on average). The detailed attack algorithms, adversarial model and empirical evaluation, serve.

In this paper we propose using the principle of boosting to reduce the bias of a random forest prediction in the regression setting. From the original random forest fit we extract the residuals and then fit another random forest to these residuals. We call the sum of these two random forests a \textit{one-step boosted forest}. We have shown with simulated and real data that the one-step boosted forest has a reduced bias compared to the original random forest. The paper also provides a variance estimate of the one-step boosted forest by an extension of the infinitesimal Jackknife estimator. Using this variance estimate we can construct prediction intervals for the boosted forest and we show that they have good coverage probabilities. Combining the bias reduction and the variance estimate we have shown that the one-step boosted forest has a significant reduction in predictive mean squared error and thus an improvement in predictive performance. When applied on datasets from the UCI database we have empirically proven that the one-step boosted forest performs better than the random forest and gradient boosting machine algorithms. Theoretically we can also extend such a boosting process to more than one step and the same principles outlined in this paper can be used to find variance estimates for such predictors. Such boosting will reduce bias even further but it risks over-fitting and also increases the computational burden.

Ensemble methods -- particularly those based on decision trees -- have recently demonstrated superior performance in a variety of machine learning settings. Specifically, Random Forest (RF) was found to outperform >100 other methods in several manuscripts, and gradient boosting trees have been a crucial component of several recent Kaggle competition victories. Building off these successes and recent advances in sparse learning and random matrix theory, we propose a novel ensemble tree method called "Randomer Forest" (RerF). The key intuition behind RerF is that we can use sparse linear combinations at each decision node rather than just one feature (as in RF) or all of them (as in Rotation Forests). RerF significantly outperforms other methods on a standard benchmark suite containing 105 problems with varying dimension, sample size, and number of classes. Moreover, we provide an implementation that scales as or more efficiently than other available packages. Via a combination of basic principles, theory, and extensive numerical experiments, we demonstrate why, when, and how RerF achieves its performance properties.

In this tutorial, I will demonstrate Orange, a tool for machine learning. Orange is an extremely easy-to-use, lightweight, drag-and-drop tool. More importantly, it is open source! If you are an Anaconda user, then you can find it in the console as shown in the following image -- a pure, fresh orange wearing sunglasses with a smile. Orange is a platform built for creating machine learning pipelines on a GUI workflow.

Early hospital mortality prediction is critical as intensivists strive to make efficient medical decisions about the severely ill patients staying in intensive care units. As a result, various methods have been developed to address this problem based on clinical records. However, some of the laboratory test results are time-consuming and need to be processed. In this paper, we propose a novel method to predict mortality using features extracted from the heart signals of patients within the first hour of ICU admission. In order to predict the risk, quantitative features have been computed based on the heart rate signals of ICU patients. Each signal is described in terms of 12 statistical and signal-based features. The extracted features are fed into eight classifiers: decision tree, linear discriminant, logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM), random forest, boosted trees, Gaussian SVM, and K-nearest neighborhood (K-NN). To derive insight into the performance of the proposed method, several experiments have been conducted using the well-known clinical dataset named Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III). The experimental results demonstrate the capability of the proposed method in terms of precision, recall, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The decision tree classifier satisfies both accuracy and interpretability better than the other classifiers, producing an F1-score and AUC equal to 0.91 and 0.93, respectively. It indicates that heart rate signals can be used for predicting mortality in patients in the ICU, achieving a comparable performance with existing predictions that rely on high dimensional features from clinical records which need to be processed and may contain missing information.

This paper presents an out-of-sample prediction comparison between major machine learning models and the structural econometric model. Over the past decade, machine learning has established itself as a powerful tool in many prediction applications, but this approach is still not widely adopted in empirical economic studies. To evaluate the benefits of this approach, I use the most common machine learning algorithms, CART, C4.5, LASSO, random forest, and adaboost, to construct prediction models for a cash transfer experiment conducted by the Progresa program in Mexico, and I compare the prediction results with those of a previous structural econometric study. Two prediction tasks are performed in this paper: the out-of-sample forecast and the long-term within-sample simulation. For the out-of-sample forecast, both the mean absolute error and the root mean square error of the school attendance rates found by all machine learning models are smaller than those found by the structural model. Random forest and adaboost have the highest accuracy for the individual outcomes of all subgroups. For the long-term within-sample simulation, the structural model has better performance than do all of the machine learning models. The poor within-sample fitness of the machine learning model results from the inaccuracy of the income and pregnancy prediction models. The result shows that the machine learning model performs better than does the structural model when there are many data to learn; however, when the data are limited, the structural model offers a more sensible prediction. The findings of this paper show promise for adopting machine learning in economic policy analyses in the era of big data.