Under dynamic conditions on bridges, we need a real-time management. To this end, this paper presents a rule-based decision support system in which the necessary rules are extracted from simulation results made by Aimsun traffic micro-simulation software. Then, these rules are generalized by the aid of fuzzy rule generation algorithms. Then, they are trained by a set of supervised and the unsupervised learning algorithms to get an ability to make decision in real cases. As a pilot case study, Nasr Bridge in Tehran is simulated in Aimsun and WEKA data mining software is used to execute the learning algorithms. Based on this experiment, the accuracy of the supervised algorithms to generalize the rules is greater than 80%. In addition, CART decision tree and sequential minimal optimization (SMO) provides 100% accuracy for normal data and these algorithms are so reliable for crisis management on bridge. This means that, it is possible to use such machine learning methods to manage bridges in the real-time conditions.

In machine learning, there's something called the "No Free Lunch" theorem. In a nutshell, it states that no one algorithm works best for every problem, and it's especially relevant for supervised learning (i.e. For example, you can't say that neural networks are always better than decision trees or vice-versa. There are many factors at play, such as the size and structure of your dataset. As a result, you should try many different algorithms for your problem, while using a hold-out "test set" of data to evaluate performance and select the winner.

The random-forest technique has emerged in recent years as a powerful way to analyze large data sets while avoiding some of the pitfalls of other data-mining methods. It is based on the idea that some future event can be determined by a decision tree in which an outcome is calculated at each branch by reference to a set of training data. However, decision trees suffer from a well-known problem. In the latter stages of the branching process, decisions can become severely distorted by training data that is sparse and prone to huge variation at this kind of resolution, a problem known as overfitting. The random-forest approach is different.

This paper presents a theoretical study of gradient boosted trees (GBT: Friedman, 2001). Machine learning methods for prediction have generally been thought of as trading off both intelligibility and statistical uncertainty quantification in favor of accuracy. Recent results have started to provide a statistical understanding of methods based on ensembles of decision trees (Breiman et al., 1984). In particular, the consistency of methods related to Random Forests (RFs: Breiman, 2001) has been demonstrated in Biau (2012); Scornet et al. (2015) while Wager et al. (2014); Mentch and Hooker (2016); Wager and Athey (2017) and Athey et al. (2016) prove central limit theorems for RF predictions. These have then been used for tests of variable importance and nonparametric interactions in Mentch and Hooker (2017). In this paper, we extend this analysis to GBT. Analyses of RFs have relied on a subsampling structure to express the estimator in the form of a U-statistic from which central limit theorems can be derived. By contrast, GBT produces trees sequentially with the current tree depending on the values in those built previously, requiring a different analytical approach. While the algorithm proposed in Friedman (2001) is intended to be generally applicable to any loss function, in this paper we focus specifically on nonparametric regression (Stone, 1977, 1982).

Let's imagine you are playing a game of Twenty Questions. Your opponent has secretly chosen a subject, and you must figure out what he/she chose. At each turn, you may ask a yes-or-no question, and your opponent must answer truthfully. How do you find out the secret in the fewest number of questions? It should be obvious some questions are better than others. For example, asking "Can it fly?" as your first question is likely to be unfruitful, whereas asking "Is it alive?" is a bit more useful. Intuitively, you want each question to significantly narrow down the space of possibly secrets, eventually leading to your answer. That is the basic idea behind decision trees. At each point, you consider a set of questions that can partition your data set. You choose the question that provides the best split and again find the best questions for the partitions.

We show how the problem of estimating conditional Kendall's tau can be rewritten as a classification task. Conditional Kendall's tau is a conditional dependence parameter that is a characteristic of a given pair of random variables. The goal is to predict whether the pair is concordant (value of $1$) or discordant (value of $-1$) conditionally on some covariates. We prove the consistency and the asymptotic normality of a family of penalized approximate maximum likelihood estimators, including the equivalent of the logit and probit regressions in our framework. Then, we detail specific algorithms adapting usual machine learning techniques, including nearest neighbors, decision trees, random forests and neural networks, to the setting of the estimation of conditional Kendall's tau. A small simulation study compares their finite sample properties. Finally, we apply all these estimators to a dataset of European stock indices.

The random-forest technique has emerged in recent years as a powerful way to analyze large data sets while avoiding some of the pitfalls of other data-mining methods. It is based on the idea that some future event can be determined by a decision tree in which an outcome is calculated at each branch by reference to a set of training data. However, decision trees suffer from a well-known problem. In the latter stages of the branching process, decisions can become severely distorted by training data that is sparse and prone to huge variation at this kind of resolution, a problem known as overfitting. The random-forest approach is different.

In this study, we predict the outcome of the football matches in the FIFA World Cup 2018 to be held in Russia this summer. We do this using classification models over a dataset of historic football results that includes attributes from the playing teams by rating them in attack, midfield, defence, aggression, pressure, chance creation and building ability. This last training data was a result of merging international matches results with AE games ratings of the teams considering the timeline of the matches with their respective statistics. Final predictions show the four countries with the most chances of getting to the semifinals as France, Brazil, Spain and Germany while giving Spain as the winner. The objective of this study is to build a predictive model that will allow us to make good predictions for the coming World Cup 2018 so we looked for dataset with historic data for match results, for this purpose we chose a dataset from Kaggle with data of almost 40,000 international matches played between 1872 and 2018.

Online social media platforms generally attempt to mitigate hateful expressions, as these comments can be detrimental to the health of the community. However, automatically identifying hateful comments can be challenging. We manually label 5,143 hateful expressions posted to YouTube and Facebook videos among a dataset of 137,098 comments from an online news media. We then create a granular taxonomy of different types and targets of online hate and train machine learning models to automatically detect and classify the hateful comments in the full dataset. Our contribution is twofold: 1) creating a granular taxonomy for hateful online comments that includes both types and targets of hateful comments, and 2) experimenting with machine learning, including Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, Adaboost, and Linear SVM, to generate a multiclass, multilabel classification model that automatically detects and categorizes hateful comments in the context of online news media. We find that the best performing model is Linear SVM, with an average F1 score of 0.79 using TF-IDF features. We validate the model by testing its predictive ability, and, relatedly, provide insights on distinct types of hate speech taking place on social media.

Fraud detection is a difficult problem that can benefit from predictive modeling. However, the verification of a prediction is challenging; for a single insurance policy, the model only provides a prediction score. We present a case study where we reflect on different instance-level model explanation techniques to aid a fraud detection team in their work. To this end, we designed two novel dashboards combining various state-of-the-art explanation techniques. These enable the domain expert to analyze and understand predictions, dramatically speeding up the process of filtering potential fraud cases. Finally, we discuss the lessons learned and outline open research issues.