In the past years, many new explanation methods have been proposed to achieve interpretability of machine learning predictions. However, the utility of these methods in practical applications has not been researched extensively. In this paper we present the results of a human-grounded evaluation of SHAP, an explanation method that has been well-received in the XAI and related communities. In particular, we study whether this local model-agnostic explanation method can be useful for real human domain experts to assess the correctness of positive predictions, i.e. alerts generated by a classifier. We performed experimentation with three different groups of participants (159 in total), who had basic knowledge of explainable machine learning. We performed a qualitative analysis of recorded reflections of experiment participants performing alert processing with and without SHAP information. The results suggest that the SHAP explanations do impact the decision-making process, although the model's confidence score remains to be a leading source of evidence. We statistically test whether there is a significant difference in task utility metrics between tasks for which an explanation was available and tasks in which it was not provided. As opposed to common intuitions, we did not find a significant difference in alert processing performance when a SHAP explanation is available compared to when it is not.

Geodesic distance is the shortest path between two points in a Riemannian manifold. Manifold learning algorithms, such as Isomap, seek to learn a manifold that preserves geodesic distances. However, such methods operate on the ambient dimensionality, and are therefore fragile to noise dimensions. We developed an unsupervised random forest method (URerF) to approximately learn geodesic distances in linear and nonlinear manifolds with noise. URerF operates on low-dimensional sparse linear combinations of features, rather than the full observed dimensionality. To choose the optimal split in a computationally efficient fashion, we developed a fast Bayesian Information Criterion statistic for Gaussian mixture models. We introduce geodesic precision-recall curves which quantify performance relative to the true latent manifold. Empirical results on simulated and real data demonstrate that URerF is robust to high-dimensional noise, where as other methods, such as Isomap, UMAP, and FLANN, quickly deteriorate in such settings. In particular, URerF is able to estimate geodesic distances on a real connectome dataset better than other approaches.

In this paper, we introduce a novel method to generate interpretable regression function estimators. The idea is based on called data-dependent coverings. The aim is to extract from the data a covering of the feature space instead of a partition. The estimator predicts the empirical conditional expectation over the cells of the partitions generated from the coverings. Thus, such estimator has the same form as those issued from data-dependent partitioning algorithms. We give sufficient conditions to ensure the consistency, avoiding the sufficient condition of shrinkage of the cells that appears in the former literature. Doing so, we reduce the number of covering elements. We show that such coverings are interpretable and each element of the covering is tagged as significant or insignificant. The proof of the consistency is based on a control of the error of the empirical estimation of conditional expectations which is interesting on its own.

Understanding how "black-box" models arrive at their predictions has sparked significant interest from both within and outside the AI community. Our work focuses on doing this by generating local explanations about individual predictions for tree-based ensembles, specifically Gradient Boosting Decision Trees (GBDTs). Given a correctly predicted instance in the training set, we wish to generate a counterfactual explanation for this instance, that is, the minimal perturbation of this instance such that the prediction flips to the opposite class. Most existing methods for counterfactual explanations are (1) model-agnostic, so they do not take into account the structure of the original model, and/or (2) involve building a surrogate model on top of the original model, which is not guaranteed to represent the original model accurately. There exists a method specifically for random forests; we wish to extend this method for GBDTs. This involves accounting for (1) the sequential dependency between trees and (2) training on the negative gradients instead of the original labels.

Gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) is a widely-used machine learning algorithm in both data analytic competitions and real-world industrial applications. Further, driven by the rapid increase in data volume, efforts have been made to train GBDT in a distributed setting to support large-scale workloads. However, we find it surprising that the existing systems manage the training dataset in different ways, but none of them have studied the impact of data management. To that end, this paper aims to study the pros and cons of different data management methods regarding the performance of distributed GBDT. We first introduce a quadrant categorization of data management policies based on data partitioning and data storage. Then we conduct an in-depth systematic analysis and summarize the advantageous scenarios of the quadrants. Based on the analysis, we further propose a novel distributed GBDT system named Vero, which adopts the unexplored composition of vertical partitioning and row-store and suits for many large-scale cases. To validate our analysis empirically, we implement different quadrants in the same code base and compare them under extensive workloads, and finally compare Vero with other state-of-the-art systems over a wide range of datasets. Our theoretical and experimental results provide a guideline on choosing a proper data management policy for a given workload.

Despite its success and popularity, machine learning is now recognized as vulnerable to evasion attacks, i.e., carefully crafted perturbations of test inputs designed to force prediction errors. In this paper we focus on evasion attacks against decision tree ensembles, which are among the most successful predictive models for dealing with non-perceptual problems. Even though they are powerful and interpretable, decision tree ensembles have received only limited attention by the security and machine learning communities so far, leading to a sub-optimal state of the art for adversarial learning techniques. We thus propose Treant, a novel decision tree learning algorithm that, on the basis of a formal threat model, minimizes an evasion-aware loss function at each step of the tree construction. Treant is based on two key technical ingredients: robust splitting and attack invariance, which jointly guarantee the soundness of the learning process. Experimental results on three publicly available datasets show that Treant is able to generate decision tree ensembles that are at the same time accurate and nearly insensitive to evasion attacks, outperforming state-of-the-art adversarial learning techniques.

Information-theoretic quantities, such as mutual information and conditional entropy, are useful statistics for measuring the dependence between two random variables. However, estimating these quantities in a non-parametric fashion is difficult, especially when the variables are high-dimensional, a mixture of continuous and discrete values, or both. In this paper, we propose a decision forest method, Conditional Forests (CF), to estimate these quantities. By combining quantile regression forests with honest sampling, and introducing a finite sample correction, CF improves finite sample bias in a range of settings. We demonstrate through simulations that CF achieves smaller bias and variance in both low- and high-dimensional settings for estimating posteriors, conditional entropy, and mutual information. We then use CF to estimate the amount of information between neuron class and other ceulluar feautres.

We present a detailed analysis of the class of regression decision tree algorithms which employ a regulized piecewise-linear node-splitting criterion and have regularized linear models at the leaves. From a theoretic standpoint, based on Rademacher complexity framework, we present new high-probability upper bounds for the generalization error for the proposed classes of regularized regression decision tree algorithms, including LASSO-type, and $\ell_{2}$ regularization for linear models at the leaves. Theoretical result are further extended by considering a general type of variable selection procedure. Furthermore, in our work we demonstrate that the class of piecewise-linear regression trees is not only numerically stable but can be made tractable via an algorithmic implementation, presented herein, as well as with the help of modern GPU technology. Empirically, we present results on multiple datasets which highlight the strengths and potential pitfalls, of the proposed tree algorithms compared to baselines which grow trees based on piecewise constant models.

Tree ensembles such as Random Forests have achieved impressive empirical success across a wide variety of applications. To understand how these models make predictions, people routinely turn to feature importance measures calculated from tree ensembles. It has long been known that Mean Decrease Impurity (MDI), one of the most widely used measures of feature importance, incorrectly assigns high importance to noisy features, leading to systematic bias in feature selection. In this paper, we address the feature selection bias of MDI from both theoretical and methodological perspectives. Based on the original definition of MDI by Breiman et al. [3] for a single tree, we derive a tight non-asymptotic bound on the expected bias of MDI importance of noisy features, showing that deep trees have higher (expected) feature selection bias than shallow ones. However, it is not clear how to reduce the bias of MDI using its existing analytical expression. We derive a new analytical expression for MDI, and based on this new expression, we are able to propose a debiased MDI feature importance measure using out-of-bag samples, called MDI-oob. For both the simulated data and a genomic ChIP dataset, MDI-oob achieves state-of-the-art performance in feature selection from Random Forests for both deep and shallow trees.

Decision Tree is a classic formulation of active learning: given $n$ hypotheses with nonnegative weights summing to 1 and a set of tests that each partition the hypotheses, output a decision tree using the provided tests that uniquely identifies each hypothesis and has minimum (weighted) average depth. Previous works showed that the greedy algorithm achieves a $O(\log n)$ approximation ratio for this problem and it is NP-hard beat a $O(\log n)$ approximation, settling the complexity of the problem. However, for Uniform Decision Tree, i.e. Decision Tree with uniform weights, the story is more subtle. The greedy algorithm's $O(\log n)$ approximation ratio is the best known, but the largest approximation ratio known to be NP-hard is $4-\varepsilon$. We prove that the greedy algorithm gives a $O(\frac{\log n}{\log C_{OPT}})$ approximation for Uniform Decision Tree, where $C_{OPT}$ is the cost of the optimal tree and show this is best possible for the greedy algorithm. As a corollary, this resolves a conjecture of Kosaraju, Przytycka, and Borgstrom. Our results also hold for instances of Decision Tree whose weights are not too far from uniform. Leveraging this result, we exhibit a subexponential algorithm that yields an $O(1/\alpha)$ approximation to Uniform Decision Tree in time $2^{O(n^\alpha)}$. As a corollary, achieving any super-constant approximation ratio on Uniform Decision Tree is not NP-hard, assuming the Exponential Time Hypothesis. This work therefore adds approximating Uniform Decision Tree to a small list of natural problems that have subexponential algorithms but no known polynomial time algorithms. Like the greedy algorithm, our subexponential algorithm gives similar guarantees even for slightly nonuniform weights.