Early detection of patients vulnerable to infections acquired in the hospital environment is a challenge in current health systems given the impact that such infections have on patient mortality and healthcare costs. This work is focused on both the identification of risk factors and the prediction of healthcare-associated infections in intensive-care units by means of machine-learning methods. The aim is to support decision making addressed at reducing the incidence rate of infections. In this field, it is necessary to deal with the problem of building reliable classifiers from imbalanced datasets. We propose a clustering-based undersampling strategy to be used in combination with ensemble classifiers. A comparative study with data from 4616 patients was conducted in order to validate our proposal. We applied several single and ensemble classifiers both to the original dataset and to data preprocessed by means of different resampling methods. The results were analyzed by means of classic and recent metrics specifically designed for imbalanced data classification. They revealed that the proposal is more efficient in comparison with other approaches.

Recently, I have been working on a binary classification problem with an imbalanced dataset, where the ratio of positive class to negative class is around 1:4. Imbalanced classification problems are so commonplace that data enthusiasts would encounter them sooner or later. In this post, I will be sharing three tree-based Machine Learning Models that can help handle imbalanced datasets. The dataset that I am going to use to illustrate the effectiveness of algorithms is the credit card fraud dataset from Kaggle. This is an extremely imbalanced dataset: out of 284,807 transactions, there are only 492 frauds. Following the convention, we label the fraud class samples as positive class and normal transactions, negative class.

Systems based on artificial intelligence and machine learning models should be transparent, in the sense of being capable of explaining their decisions to gain humans' approval and trust. While there are a number of explainability techniques that can be used to this end, many of them are only capable of outputting a single one-size-fits-all explanation that simply cannot address all of the explainees' diverse needs. In this work we introduce a model-agnostic and post-hoc local explainability technique for black-box predictions called LIMEtree, which employs surrogate multi-output regression trees. We validate our algorithm on a deep neural network trained for object detection in images and compare it against Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME). Our method comes with local fidelity guarantees and can produce a range of diverse explanation types, including contrastive and counterfactual explanations praised in the literature. Some of these explanations can be interactively personalised to create bespoke, meaningful and actionable insights into the model's behaviour. While other methods may give an illusion of customisability by wrapping, otherwise static, explanations in an interactive interface, our explanations are truly interactive, in the sense of allowing the user to "interrogate" a black-box model. LIMEtree can therefore produce consistent explanations on which an interactive exploratory process can be built.

Machine Learning for trading is the new buzz word today and some of the tech companies are doing wonderful unimaginable things with it. Today, we're going to show you, how you can predict stock movements (that's either up or down) with the help of'Decision Trees', one of the most commonly used ML algorithms. Decision trees in Machine Learning are used for building classification and regression models to be used in data mining and trading. A decision tree algorithm performs a set of recursive actions before it arrives at the end result and when you plot these actions on a screen, the visual looks like a big tree, hence the name'Decision Tree'. Basically, a decision tree is a flowchart to help you make decisions.

Precipitation data collected at sub-hourly resolution represents specific challenges for missing data recovery by being largely stochastic in nature and highly unbalanced in the duration of rain vs nonrain. Here we present a two-step analysis utilising current machine learning techniques for imputing precipitation data sampled at 30-minute intervals by devolving the task into (a) the classification of rain or non-rain samples, and (b) regressing the absolute values of predicted rain samples. Investigating 37 weather stations in the UK, this machine learning process produces more accurate predictions for recovering precipitation data than an established surface fitting technique utilising neighbouring rain gauges. Increasing available features for the training of machine learning algorithms increases performance with the integration of weather data at the target site with externally sourced rain gauges providing the highest performance. This method informs machine learning models by utilising information in concurrently collected environmental data to make accurate predictions of missing rain data. Capturing complex nonlinear relationships from weakly correlated variables is critical for data recovery at sub-hourly resolutions. Such pipelines for data recovery can be developed and deployed for highly automated and near instantaneous imputation of missing values in ongoing datasets at high temporal resolutions. Keywords: machine learning, data imputation, gradient boosted trees, environmental sensor networks, precipitation, soil moisture 1. Introduction Precipitation data is of critical importance across multiple lines of enquiry, informing statistical models and analysis relating to weather forecasting, extreme weather events, climate change, water-resource management, droughts, flooding, agricultural impact, and hydroelectric power. Historical rainfall data can reveal long term trends in environmental hydrological issues with real-time data input allowing for immediate forecasting of future conditions. Distributed networks of rain gauges are typically used to provide precipitation data at the earth's surface at varying temporal resolutions and can cover large geographical areas (Kidd, 2001). As is the case in many databases, particularly those utilising physical sensors, the problem of missing data arises. Missing data can be a result of sensor failure, data storage/transmission failure, or post-collection quality control procedures resulting in removal of identified problem data (Blenkinsop et al., 2017). Missing data in precipitation databases represents a serious limitation for the effective use of the data. Given the global scale and importance of precipitation and meteorological data (Sun et al., 2018), developing solutions to missing data is of paramount importance for maximising information gain.

In recent years, the concept of automated machine learning has become very popular. Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) mainly refers to the automated methods for model selection and hyper-parameter optimization of various algorithms such as random forests, gradient boosting, neural networks, etc. In this paper, we introduce a new package i.e. DriveML for automated machine learning. DriveML helps in implementing some of the pillars of an automated machine learning pipeline such as automated data preparation, feature engineering, model building and model explanation by running the function instead of writing lengthy R codes. The DriveML package is available in CRAN. We compare the DriveML package with other relevant packages in CRAN/Github and find that DriveML performs the best across different parameters. We also provide an illustration by applying the DriveML package with default configuration on a real world dataset. Overall, the main benefits of DriveML are in development time savings, reduce developer's errors, optimal tuning of machine learning models and reproducibility.

AI is having a profound impact on customer experience, revenue, operations, risk management and other business functions across multiple industries. When fully operationalized, AI and Machine Learning (ML) enable organizations to make data-driven decisions with unprecedented levels of speed, transparency, and accountability. This dramatically accelerates digital transformation initiatives delivering greater performance and a competitive edge to organizations. ML projects in data science labs tend to adopt black-box approaches that generate minimal actionable insights and result in a lack of accountability in the data-driven decision-making process. Today with the advent of AutoML 2.0 platforms, a white-box model approach is becoming increasingly important and possible.

Increasing the penetration of variable generation has a substantial effect on the operational reliability of power systems. The higher level of uncertainty that stems from this variability makes it more difficult to determine whether a given operating condition will be secure or insecure. Data-driven techniques provide a promising way to identify security rules that can be embedded in economic dispatch model to keep power system operating states secure. This paper proposes using a sparse weighted oblique decision tree to learn accurate, understandable, and embeddable security rules that are linear and can be extracted as sparse matrices using a recursive algorithm. These matrices can then be easily embedded as security constraints in power system economic dispatch calculations using the Big-M method. Tests on several large datasets with high renewable energy penetration demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. In particular, the sparse weighted oblique decision tree outperforms the state-of-art weighted oblique decision tree while keeping the security rules simple. When embedded in the economic dispatch, these rules significantly increase the percentage of secure states and reduce the average solution time.

Standard methods of using categorical variables as predictors either endow them with an ordinal structure or assume they have no structure at all. However, categorical variables often possess structure that is more complicated than a linear ordering can capture. We develop a mathematical framework for representing the structure of categorical variables and show how to generalize decision trees to make use of this structure. This approach is applicable to methods such as Gradient Boosted Trees which use a decision tree as the underlying learner. We show results on weather data to demonstrate the improvement yielded by this approach.

Concept drift refers to changes in the distribution of underlying data and is an inherent property of evolving data streams. Ensemble learning, with dynamic classifiers, has proved to be an efficient method of handling concept drift. However, the best way to create and maintain ensemble diversity with evolving streams is still a challenging problem. In contrast to estimating diversity via inputs, outputs, or classifier parameters, we propose a diversity measurement based on whether the ensemble members agree on the probability of a regional distribution change. In our method, estimations over regional distribution changes are used as instance weights. Constructing different region sets through different schemes will lead to different drift estimation results, thereby creating diversity. The classifiers that disagree the most are selected to maximize diversity. Accordingly, an instance-based ensemble learning algorithm, called the diverse instance weighting ensemble (DiwE), is developed to address concept drift for data stream classification problems. Evaluations of various synthetic and real-world data stream benchmarks show the effectiveness and advantages of the proposed algorithm.