For a successful business, engaging in an effective campaign is a key task for marketers. Most previous studies used various mathematical models to segment customers without considering the correlation between customer segmentation and a campaign. This work presents a conceptual model by studying the significant campaign-dependent variables of customer targeting in customer segmentation context. In this way, the processes of customer segmentation and targeting thus can be linked and solved together. The outcomes of customer segmentation of this study could be more meaningful and relevant for marketers. This investigation applies a customer life time value (LTV) model to assess the fitness between targeted customer groups and marketing strategies. To integrate customer segmentation and customer targeting, this work uses the genetic algorithm (GA) to determine the optimized marketing strategy. Later, we suggest using C&RT (Classification and Regression Tree) in SPSS PASW Modeler as the replacement to Genetic Algorithm technique to accomplish these results. We also suggest using LOSSYCOUNTING and Counting Bloom Filter to dynamically design the right and up-to-date offer to the right customer.

The thesis explores the role machine learning methods play in creating intuitive computational models of neural processing. Combined with interpretability techniques, machine learning could replace human modeler and shift the focus of human effort to extracting the knowledge from the ready-made models and articulating that knowledge into intuitive descroptions of reality. This perspective makes the case in favor of the larger role that exploratory and data-driven approach to computational neuroscience could play while coexisting alongside the traditional hypothesis-driven approach. We exemplify the proposed approach in the context of the knowledge representation taxonomy with three research projects that employ interpretability techniques on top of machine learning methods at three different levels of neural organization. The first study (Chapter 3) explores feature importance analysis of a random forest decoder trained on intracerebral recordings from 100 human subjects to identify spectrotemporal signatures that characterize local neural activity during the task of visual categorization. The second study (Chapter 4) employs representation similarity analysis to compare the neural responses of the areas along the ventral stream with the activations of the layers of a deep convolutional neural network. The third study (Chapter 5) proposes a method that allows test subjects to visually explore the state representation of their neural signal in real time. This is achieved by using a topology-preserving dimensionality reduction technique that allows to transform the neural data from the multidimensional representation used by the computer into a two-dimensional representation a human can grasp. The approach, the taxonomy, and the examples, present a strong case for the applicability of machine learning methods to automatic knowledge discovery in neuroscience.

It is often critical for prediction models to be robust to distributional shifts between training and testing data. Viewed from a causal perspective, the challenge is to distinguish the stable causal relationships from the unstable spurious correlations across shifts. We describe a causal transfer random forest (CTRF) that combines existing training data with a small amount of data from a randomized experiment to train a model which is robust to the feature shifts and therefore transfers to a new targeting distribution. Theoretically, we justify the robustness of the approach against feature shifts with the knowledge from causal learning. Empirically, we evaluate the CTRF using both synthetic data experiments and real-world experiments in the Bing Ads platform, including a click prediction task and in the context of an end-to-end counterfactual optimization system. The proposed CTRF produces robust predictions and outperforms most baseline methods compared in the presence of feature shifts.

We propose a simple extension of top-down decision tree learning heuristics such as ID3, C4.5, and CART. Our algorithm achieves provable guarantees for all target functions $f: \{-1,1\}^n \to \{-1,1\}$ with respect to the uniform distribution, circumventing impossibility results showing that existing heuristics fare poorly even for simple target functions. The crux of our extension is a new splitting criterion that takes into account the correlations between $f$ and small subsets of its attributes. The splitting criteria of existing heuristics (e.g. Gini impurity and information gain), in contrast, are based solely on the correlations between $f$ and its individual attributes. Our algorithm satisfies the following guarantee: for all target functions $f : \{-1,1\}^n \to \{-1,1\}$, sizes $s\in \mathbb{N}$, and error parameters $\epsilon$, it constructs a decision tree of size $s^{\tilde{O}((\log s)^2/\epsilon^2)}$ that achieves error $\le O(\mathsf{opt}_s) + \epsilon$, where $\mathsf{opt}_s$ denotes the error of the optimal size $s$ decision tree. A key technical notion that drives our analysis is the noise stability of $f$, a well-studied smoothness measure.

Hoeffding trees are the state-of-the-art methods in decision tree learning for evolving data streams. These very fast decision trees are used in many real applications where data is created in real-time due to their efficiency. In this work, we extricate explanations for why these streaming decision tree algorithms for stationary and nonstationary streams (HoeffdingTree and HoeffdingAdaptiveTree) work as well as they do. In doing so, we identify thirteen unique unspecified design decisions in both the theoretical constructs and their implementations with substantial and consequential effects on predictive accuracy---design decisions that, without necessarily changing the essence of the algorithms, drive algorithm performance. We begin a larger conversation about explainability not just of the model but also of the processes responsible for an algorithm's success.

Random forests can also be used to identify likely fraudulent transactions. For example, each transaction in a bank has a series of features such as the deviation from the mean transaction volume of the customer, the time of day, the location, and how these values differ from that customer's usual habits. This allows a bank to build a sophisticated model to predict the likelihood of a given transaction being fraudulent. If the probability of fraud exceeds a threshold, such as 50%, the bank can take action, such as freezing the card.

Interpretable machine learning is an emerging field providing solutions on acquiring insights into machine learning models' rationale. It has been put in the map of machine learning by suggesting ways to tackle key ethical and societal issues. However, existing techniques of interpretable machine learning are far from being comprehensible and explainable to the end user. Another key issue in this field is the lack of evaluation and selection criteria, making it difficult for the end user to choose the most appropriate interpretation technique for its use. In this study, we introduce a meta-explanation methodology that will provide truthful interpretations, in terms of feature importance, to the end user through argumentation. At the same time, this methodology can be used as an evaluation or selection tool for multiple interpretation techniques based on feature importance.

A method for the local and global interpretation of a black-box model on the basis of the well-known generalized additive models is proposed. It can be viewed as an extension or a modification of the algorithm using the neural additive model. The method is based on using an ensemble of gradient boosting machines (GBMs) such that each GBM is learned on a single feature and produces a shape function of the feature. The ensemble is composed as a weighted sum of separate GBMs resulting a weighted sum of shape functions which form the generalized additive model. GBMs are built in parallel using randomized decision trees of depth 1, which provide a very simple architecture. Weights of GBMs as well as features are computed in each iteration of boosting by using the Lasso method and then updated by means of a specific smoothing procedure. In contrast to the neural additive model, the method provides weights of features in the explicit form, and it is simply trained. A lot of numerical experiments with an algorithm implementing the proposed method on synthetic and real datasets demonstrate its efficiency and properties for local and global interpretation.

While artificial intelligence (AI)-based decision-making systems are increasingly popular, significant concerns on the potential discrimination during the AI decision-making process have been observed. For example, the distribution of predictions is usually biased and dependents on the sensitive attributes (e.g., gender and ethnicity). Numerous approaches have therefore been proposed to develop decision-making systems that are discrimination-conscious by-design, which are typically batch-based and require the simultaneous availability of all the training data for model learning. However, in the real-world, the data streams usually come on the fly which requires the model to process each input data once "on arrival" and without the need for storage and reprocessing. In addition, the data streams might also evolve over time, which further requires the model to be able to simultaneously adapt to non-stationary data distributions and time-evolving bias patterns, with an effective and robust trade-off between accuracy and fairness. In this paper, we propose a novel framework of online decision tree with fairness in the data stream with possible distribution drifting. Specifically, first, we propose two novel fairness splitting criteria that encode the data as well as possible, while simultaneously removing dependence on the sensitive attributes, and further adapts to non-stationary distribution with fine-grained control when needed. Second, we propose two fairness decision tree online growth algorithms that fulfills different online fair decision-making requirements. Our experiments show that our algorithms are able to deal with discrimination in massive and non-stationary streaming environments, with a better trade-off between fairness and predictive performance.

Understanding predictions made by Machine Learning models is critical in many applications. In this work, we investigate the performance of two methods for explaining tree-based models: 'Tree Interpreter (TI)' and'SHapley Additive exPlanations TreeExplainer (SHAP-TE)'. Using a case study on detecting anomalies in job runtimes of applications that utilize cloud-computing platforms, we compare these approaches using a variety of metrics, including computation time, significance of attribution value, and explanation accuracy. We find that, although the SHAP-TE offers consistency guarantees over TI, at the cost of increased computation, consistency does not necessarily improve the explanation performance in our case study.