The intuition behind the random forest algorithm can be split into two big parts: the random part and the forest part. Let us start with the latter. A forest in real life is made up of a bunch of trees. A random forest classifier is made up of a bunch of decision tree classifiers (here and throughout the text -- DT). The exact amount of DTs that make up the whole forest is defined with the n_estimators variable mentioned earlier.

Like many predictive models, random forests provide a point prediction for a new observation. Besides the point prediction, it is important to quantify the uncertainty in the prediction. Prediction intervals provide information about the reliability of the point predictions. We have developed a comprehensive R package, RFpredInterval, that integrates 16 methods to build prediction intervals with random forests and boosted forests. The methods implemented in the package are a new method to build prediction intervals with boosted forests (PIBF) and 15 different variants to produce prediction intervals with random forests proposed by Roy and Larocque (2020). We perform an extensive simulation study and apply real data analyses to compare the performance of the proposed method to ten existing methods to build prediction intervals with random forests. The results show that the proposed method is very competitive and, globally, it outperforms the competing methods.

Automated machine learning techniques benefited from tremendous research progress in recently. These developments and the continuous-growing demand for machine learning experts led to the development of numerous AutoML tools. However, these tools assume that the entire training dataset is available upfront and that the underlying distribution does not change over time. These assumptions do not hold in a data stream mining setting where an unbounded stream of data cannot be stored and is likely to manifest concept drift. Industry applications of machine learning on streaming data become more popular due to the increasing adoption of real-time streaming patterns in IoT, microservices architectures, web analytics, and other fields. The research summarized in this paper surveys the state-of-the-art open-source AutoML tools, applies them to data collected from streams, and measures how their performance changes over time. For comparative purposes, batch, batch incremental and instance incremental estimators are applied and compared. Moreover, a meta-learning technique for online algorithm selection based on meta-feature extraction is proposed and compared while model replacement and continual AutoML techniques are discussed. The results show that off-the-shelf AutoML tools can provide satisfactory results but in the presence of concept drift, detection or adaptation techniques have to be applied to maintain the predictive accuracy over time.

We consider conducting inference on the output of the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) [Breiman et al., 1984] algorithm. A naive approach to inference that does not account for the fact that the tree was estimated from the data will not achieve standard guarantees, such as Type 1 error rate control and nominal coverage. Thus, we propose a selective inference framework for conducting inference on a fitted CART tree. In a nutshell, we condition on the fact that the tree was estimated from the data. We propose a test for the difference in the mean response between a pair of terminal nodes that controls the selective Type 1 error rate, and a confidence interval for the mean response within a single terminal node that attains the nominal selective coverage. Efficient algorithms for computing the necessary conditioning sets are provided. We apply these methods in simulation and to a dataset involving the association between portion control interventions and caloric intake.

Climate models are critical tools for developing strategies to manage the risks posed by sea-level rise to coastal communities. While these models are necessary for understanding climate risks, there is a level of uncertainty inherent in each parameter in the models. This model parametric uncertainty leads to uncertainty in future climate risks. Consequently, there is a need to understand how those parameter uncertainties impact our assessment of future climate risks and the efficacy of strategies to manage them. Here, we use random forests to examine the parametric drivers of future climate risk and how the relative importances of those drivers change over time. We find that the equilibrium climate sensitivity and a factor that scales the effect of aerosols on radiative forcing are consistently the most important climate model parametric uncertainties throughout the 2020 to 2150 interval for both low and high radiative forcing scenarios. The near-term hazards of high-end sea-level rise are driven primarily by thermal expansion, while the longer-term hazards are associated with mass loss from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. Our results highlight the practical importance of considering time-evolving parametric uncertainties when developing strategies to manage future climate risks.

Entity Matching (EM) aims at recognizing entity records that denote the same real-world object. Neural EM models learn vector representation of entity descriptions and match entities end-to-end. Though robust, these methods require many resources for training, and lack of interpretability. In this paper, we propose a novel EM framework that consists of Heterogeneous Information Fusion (HIF) and Key Attribute Tree (KAT) Induction to decouple feature representation from matching decision. Using self-supervised learning and mask mechanism in pre-trained language modeling, HIF learns the embeddings of noisy attribute values by inter-attribute attention with unlabeled data. Using a set of comparison features and a limited amount of annotated data, KAT Induction learns an efficient decision tree that can be interpreted by generating entity matching rules whose structure is advocated by domain experts. Experiments on 6 public datasets and 3 industrial datasets show that our method is highly efficient and outperforms SOTA EM models in most cases. Our codes and datasets can be obtained from https://github.com/THU-KEG/HIF-KAT.

In transfer learning, we wish to make inference about a target population when we have access to data both from the distribution itself, and from a different but related source distribution. We introduce a flexible framework for transfer learning in the context of binary classification, allowing for covariate-dependent relationships between the source and target distributions that are not required to preserve the Bayes decision boundary. Our main contributions are to derive the minimax optimal rates of convergence (up to poly-logarithmic factors) in this problem, and show that the optimal rate can be achieved by an algorithm that adapts to key aspects of the unknown transfer relationship, as well as the smoothness and tail parameters of our distributional classes. This optimal rate turns out to have several regimes, depending on the interplay between the relative sample sizes and the strength of the transfer relationship, and our algorithm achieves optimality by careful, decision tree-based calibration of local nearest-neighbour procedures.

It can be seen that the computation of splitting measures assumes finite (read: discrete) attribute values. This begs the question, How are continuous-valued attributes handled in decision trees? The test condition for continuous-valued attributes can either be expressed using a comparison operator (,). Alternatively, the continuous-valued attribute can be split into a finite set of range buckets. It is important to note that a comparison-based test condition gives us a binary split whereas range buckets give us a multiway split.

Forecasting the particulate matter (PM) concentration in South Korea has become urgently necessary owing to its strong negative impact on human life. In most statistical or machine learning methods, independent and identically distributed data, for example, a Gaussian distribution, are assumed; however, time series such as air pollution and weather data do not meet this assumption. In this study, the maximum correntropy criterion for regression (MCCR) loss is used in an analysis of the statistical characteristics of air pollution and weather data. Rigorous seasonality adjustment of the air pollution and weather data was performed because of their complex seasonality patterns and the heavy-tailed distribution of data even after deseasonalization. The MCCR loss was applied to multiple models including conventional statistical models and state-of-the-art machine learning models. The results show that the MCCR loss is more appropriate than the conventional mean squared error loss for forecasting extreme values.

Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM) are hugely popular for solving tabular data problems. However, practitioners are not only interested in point predictions, but also in probabilistic predictions in order to quantify the uncertainty of the predictions. Creating such probabilistic predictions is difficult with existing GBM-based solutions: they either require training multiple models or they become too computationally expensive to be useful for large-scale settings. We propose Probabilistic Gradient Boosting Machines (PGBM), a method to create probabilistic predictions with a single ensemble of decision trees in a computationally efficient manner. PGBM approximates the leaf weights in a decision tree as a random variable, and approximates the mean and variance of each sample in a dataset via stochastic tree ensemble update equations. These learned moments allow us to subsequently sample from a specified distribution after training. We empirically demonstrate the advantages of PGBM compared to existing state-of-the-art methods: (i) PGBM enables probabilistic estimates without compromising on point performance in a single model, (ii) PGBM learns probabilistic estimates via a single model only (and without requiring multi-parameter boosting), and thereby offers a speedup of up to several orders of magnitude over existing state-of-the-art methods on large datasets, and (iii) PGBM achieves accurate probabilistic estimates in tasks with complex differentiable loss functions, such as hierarchical time series problems, where we observed up to 10% improvement in point forecasting performance and up to 300% improvement in probabilistic forecasting performance.