Originally published on Towards AI the World's Leading AI and Technology News and Media Company. If you are building an AI-related product or service, we invite you to consider becoming an AI sponsor. At Towards AI, we help scale AI and technology startups. Let us help you unleash your technology to the masses. One model may make a wrong prediction.

Predicting customer behavior, consumer demand or stock price fluctuations, identifying fraud, and diagnosing patients -- these are some of the popular applications of the random forest (RF) algorithm. Used for classification and regression tasks, it can significantly enhance the efficiency of business processes and scientific research. This blog post will cover the random forest algorithm, its operating principles, capabilities and limitations, and real-world applications. A random forest is a supervised machine learning algorithm in which the calculations of numerous decision trees are combined to produce one final result. It's popular because it is simple yet effective. Random forest is an ensemble method -- a technique where we take many base-level models and combine them to get improved results.

Originally published on Towards AI the World's Leading AI and Technology News and Media Company. If you are building an AI-related product or service, we invite you to consider becoming an AI sponsor. At Towards AI, we help scale AI and technology startups. Let us help you unleash your technology to the masses. Machine Learning Algorithms have historically been used in the Credit and Fraud Space.

Multi-label classification is a challenging task, particularly in domains where the number of labels to be predicted is large. Deep neural networks are often effective at multi-label classification of images and textual data. When dealing with tabular data, however, conventional machine learning algorithms, such as tree ensembles, appear to outperform competition. Random forest, being a popular ensemble algorithm, has found use in a wide range of real-world problems. Such problems include fraud detection in the financial domain, crime hotspot detection in the legal sector, and in the biomedical field, disease probability prediction when patient records are accessible. Since they have an impact on people's lives, these domains usually require decision-making systems to be explainable. Random Forest falls short on this property, especially when a large number of tree predictors are used. This issue was addressed in a recent research named LionForests, regarding single label classification and regression. In this work, we adapt this technique to multi-label classification problems, by employing three different strategies regarding the labels that the explanation covers. Finally, we provide a set of qualitative and quantitative experiments to assess the efficacy of this approach.

Random Forests (RF) is a popular machine learning method for classification and regression problems. It involves a bagging application to decision tree models. One of the primary advantages of the Random Forests model is the reduction in the variance of the forecast. In large scale applications of the model with millions of data points and hundreds of features, the size of the fitted objects can get very large and reach the limits on the available space in production setups, depending on the number and depth of the trees. This could be especially challenging when trained models need to be downloaded on-demand to small devices with limited memory. There is a need to approximate the trained RF models to significantly reduce the model size without losing too much of prediction accuracy. In this project we study methods that approximate each fitted tree in the Random Forests model using the multinomial allocation of the data points to the leafs. Specifically, we begin by studying whether fitting a multinomial logistic regression (and subsequently, a generalized additive model (GAM) extension) to the output of each tree helps reduce the size while preserving the prediction quality.

In recent years, hardware accelerators based on field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) have been widely adopted, thanks to FPGAs' extraordinary flexibility. However, with the high flexibility comes the difficulty in design and optimization. Conventionally, these accelerators are designed with low-level hardware descriptive languages, which means creating large designs with complex behavior is extremely difficult. Therefore, high-level synthesis (HLS) tools were created to simplify hardware designs for FPGAs. They enable the user to create hardware designs using high-level languages and provide various optimization directives to help to improve the performance of the synthesized hardware. However, applying these optimizations to achieve high performance is time-consuming and usually requires expert knowledge. To address this difficulty, we present an automated design space exploration tool for applying HLS optimization directives, called Chimera, which significantly reduces the human effort and expertise needed for creating high-performance HLS designs. It utilizes a novel multi-objective exploration method that seamlessly integrates active learning, evolutionary algorithm, and Thompson sampling, making it capable of finding a set of optimized designs on a Pareto curve with only a small number of design points evaluated during the exploration. In the experiments, in less than 24 hours, this hybrid method explored design points that have the same or superior performance compared to highly optimized hand-tuned designs created by expert HLS users from the Rosetta benchmark suite. In addition to discovering the extreme points, it also explores a Pareto frontier, where the elbow point can potentially save up to 26\% of Flip-Flop resource with negligibly higher latency.

Machine learning is one of the artificial intelligence models frequently used for modeling, prediction, and management of swine farming. Machine learning models mainly include algorithms of a decision tree, clustering, a support vector machine, and the Markov chain model focused on disease detection, behaviour recognition for postural classification, and sound detection of animals. The researchers from North Carolina State University and Smithfield Premium Genetics* demonstrated the application of machine learning algorithms to estimate body weight in growing pigs from feeding behaviour and feed intake data. Feed intake, feeder occupation time, and body weight information were collected from 655 pigs of 3 breeds (Duroc, Landrace, and Large White) from 75 to 166 days of age. 2 machine learning algorithms (long short-term memory network and random forest) were selected to forecast the body weight of pigs using 4 scenarios. Long short-term memory was used to accurately predict time series data due to its ability in learning and storing long term patterns in a sequence-dependent order and random forest approach was used as a representative algorithm in the machine learning space.

Formal XAI (explainable AI) is a growing area that focuses on computing explanations with mathematical guarantees for the decisions made by ML models. Inside formal XAI, one of the most studied cases is that of explaining the choices taken by decision trees, as they are traditionally deemed as one of the most interpretable classes of models. Recent work has focused on studying the computation of sufficient reasons, a kind of explanation in which given a decision tree and an instance, one explains the decision () by providing a subset of the features of such that for any other instance compatible with, it holds that () = (), intuitively meaning that the features in are already enough to fully justify the classification of by. It has been argued, however, that sufficient reasons constitute a restrictive notion of explanation. For such a reason, the community has started to study their probabilistic counterpart, in which one requires that the probability of () = () must be at least some value (0, 1], where is a random instance that is compatible with. Our paper settles the computational complexity of -sufficient-reasons over decision trees, showing that both (1) finding -sufficient-reasons that are minimal in size, and (2) finding -sufficient-reasons that are minimal inclusion-wise, do not admit polynomial-time algorithms (unless PTIME = NP). This is in stark contrast with the deterministic case (= 1) where inclusion-wise minimal sufficient-reasons are easy to compute. By doing this, we answer two open problems originally raised by Izza et al., and extend the hardness of explanations for Boolean circuits presented by Wäldchen et al. to the more restricted case of decision trees. On the positive side, we identify structural restrictions of decision trees that make the problem tractable, and show how SAT solvers might be able to tackle these problems in practical settings.

Procrastination, the irrational delay of tasks, is a common occurrence in online learning. Potential negative consequences include higher risk of drop-outs, increased stress, and reduced mood. Due to the rise of learning management systems and learning analytics, indicators of such behavior can be detected, enabling predictions of future procrastination and other dilatory behavior. However, research focusing on such predictions is scarce. Moreover, studies involving different types of predictors and comparisons between the predictive performance of various methods are virtually non-existent. In this study, we aim to fill these research gaps by analyzing the performance of multiple machine learning algorithms when predicting the delayed or timely submission of online assignments in a higher education setting with two categories of predictors: subjective, questionnaire-based variables and objective, log-data based indicators extracted from a learning management system. The results show that models with objective predictors consistently outperform models with subjective predictors, and a combination of both variable types perform slightly better. For each of these three options, a different approach prevailed (Gradient Boosting Machines for the subjective, Bayesian multilevel models for the objective, and Random Forest for the combined predictors). We conclude that careful attention should be paid to the selection of predictors and algorithms before implementing such models in learning management systems.

The authors recently gave an $n^{O(\log\log n)}$ time membership query algorithm for properly learning decision trees under the uniform distribution (Blanc et al., 2021). The previous fastest algorithm for this problem ran in $n^{O(\log n)}$ time, a consequence of Ehrenfeucht and Haussler (1989)'s classic algorithm for the distribution-free setting. In this article we highlight the natural open problem of obtaining a polynomial-time algorithm, discuss possible avenues towards obtaining it, and state intermediate milestones that we believe are of independent interest.