Small and medium enterprises rely on detailed Web analytics to be informed about their market and competition. Focused crawlers meet this demand by crawling and indexing specific parts of the Web. Critically, a focused crawler must quickly find new pages that have not yet been indexed. Since a new page can be discovered only by following a new outlink, predicting new outlinks is very relevant in practice. In the literature, many feature designs have been proposed for predicting changes in the Web. In this work we provide a structured analysis of this problem, using new outlinks as our running prediction target. Specifically, we unify earlier feature designs in a taxonomic arrangement of features along two dimensions: static versus dynamic features, and features of a page versus features of the network around it. Within this taxonomy, complemented by our new (mainly, dynamic network) features, we identify best predictors for new outlinks. Our main conclusion is that most informative features are the recent history of new outlinks on a page itself, and of its content-related pages. Hence, we propose a new 'look back, look around' (LBLA) model, that uses only these features. With the obtained predictions, we design a number of scoring functions to guide a focused crawler to pages with most new outlinks, and compare their performance. The LBLA approach proved extremely effective, outperforming other models including those that use a most complete set of features. One of the learners we use, is the recent NGBoost method that assumes a Poisson distribution for the number of new outlinks on a page, and learns its parameters. This connects the two so far unrelated avenues in the literature: predictions based on features of a page, and those based on probabilistic modelling. All experiments were carried out on an original dataset, made available by a commercial focused crawler.

Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) models have been widely used by statisticians for non-linear time series forecasting during the past few decades, due to their simplicity and mathematical properties. On the other hand, in the forecasting community, general-purpose tree-based regression algorithms (forests, gradient-boosting) have become popular recently due to their ease of use and accuracy. In this paper, we explore the close connections between TAR models and regression trees. These enable us to use the rich methodology from the literature on TAR models to define a hierarchical TAR model as a regression tree that trains globally across series, which we call SETAR-Tree. In contrast to the general-purpose tree-based models that do not primarily focus on forecasting, and calculate averages at the leaf nodes, we introduce a new forecasting-specific tree algorithm that trains global Pooled Regression (PR) models in the leaves allowing the models to learn cross-series information and also uses some time-series-specific splitting and stopping procedures. The depth of the tree is controlled by conducting a statistical linearity test commonly employed in TAR models, as well as measuring the error reduction percentage at each node split. Thus, the proposed tree model requires minimal external hyperparameter tuning and provides competitive results under its default configuration. We also use this tree algorithm to develop a forest where the forecasts provided by a collection of diverse SETAR-Trees are combined during the forecasting process. In our evaluation on eight publicly available datasets, the proposed tree and forest models are able to achieve significantly higher accuracy than a set of state-of-the-art tree-based algorithms and forecasting benchmarks across four evaluation metrics.

Tree-based models are used in many high-stakes application domains such as finance and medicine, where robustness and interpretability are of utmost importance. Yet, methods for improving and certifying their robustness are severely under-explored, in contrast to those focusing on neural networks. Targeting this important challenge, we propose deterministic smoothing for decision stump ensembles. Whereas most prior work on randomized smoothing focuses on evaluating arbitrary base models approximately under input randomization, the key insight of our work is that decision stump ensembles enable exact yet efficient evaluation via dynamic programming. Importantly, we obtain deterministic robustness certificates, even jointly over numerical and categorical features, a setting ubiquitous in the real world. Further, we derive an MLE-optimal training method for smoothed decision stumps under randomization and propose two boosting approaches to improve their provable robustness. An extensive experimental evaluation on computer vision and tabular data tasks shows that our approach yields significantly higher certified accuracies than the state-of-the-art for tree-based models. We release all code and trained models at https://github.com/eth-sri/drs.

Short-term traffic forecasting is an extensively studied topic in the field of intelligent transportation system. However, most existing forecasting systems are limited by the requirement of real-time probe vehicle data because of their formulation as a time series forecasting problem. Towards this issue, the NeurIPS 2022 Traffic4cast challenge is dedicated to predicting the citywide traffic states with publicly available sparse loop count data. This technical report introduces our second-place winning solution to the extended challenge of ETA prediction. We present a similarity-based feature extraction method using multiple nearest neighbor (NN) filters. Similarity-based features, static features, node flow features and combined features of segments are extracted for training the gradient boosting decision tree model. Experimental results on three cities (including London, Madrid and Melbourne) demonstrate the strong predictive performance of our approach, which outperforms a number of graph-neural-network-based solutions in the task of travel time estimation. The source code is available at \url{https://github.com/c-lyu/Traffic4Cast2022-TSE}.

Understanding what Artificial Intelligence is and learning how Machine Learning and Deep Learning power it, are overwhelming experiences. In ML, there is something called the "No Free Lunch" theorems which states that no machine learning algorithms works best for every problem, and it's particularly relevant for supervised learning. For example, you can't say that decision trees are always better than neural networks or vice-versa. There are various factors at play, such as the size and structure of your dataset. As a result, you should try many different algorithms for your problem, while using a hold-out "test set" of data to decide performance and select the winning algorithm.

Increasingly, malwares are becoming complex and they are spreading on networks targeting different infrastructures and personal-end devices to collect, modify, and destroy victim information. Malware behaviors are polymorphic, metamorphic, persistent, able to hide to bypass detectors and adapt to new environments, and even leverage machine learning techniques to better damage targets. Thus, it makes them difficult to analyze and detect with traditional endpoint detection and response, intrusion detection and prevention systems. To defend against malwares, recent work has proposed different techniques based on signatures and machine learning. In this paper, we propose to use an algebraic topological approach called topological-based data analysis (TDA) to efficiently analyze and detect complex malware patterns. Next, we compare the different TDA techniques (i.e., persistence homology, tomato, TDA Mapper) and existing techniques (i.e., PCA, UMAP, t-SNE) using different classifiers including random forest, decision tree, xgboost, and lightgbm. We also propose some recommendations to deploy the best-identified models for malware detection at scale. Results show that TDA Mapper (combined with PCA) is better for clustering and for identifying hidden relationships between malware clusters compared to PCA. Persistent diagrams are better to identify overlapping malware clusters with low execution time compared to UMAP and t-SNE. For malware detection, malware analysts can use Random Forest and Decision Tree with t-SNE and Persistent Diagram to achieve better performance and robustness on noised data.

Three-phase PWM voltage-source rectifier (VSR) systems have been widely used in various energy conversion systems, where current sensors are the key component for state monitoring and system control. The current sensor faults may bring hidden danger or damage to the whole system; therefore, this paper proposed a random forest (RF) and current fault texture feature-based method for current sensor fault diagnosis in three-phase PWM VSR systems. First, the three-phase alternating currents (ACs) of the three-phase PWM VSR are collected to extract the current fault texture features, and no additional hardware sensors are needed to avoid causing additional unstable factors. Then, the current fault texture features are adopted to train the random forest current sensor fault detection and diagnosis (CSFDD) classifier, which is a data-driven CSFDD classifier. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by simulation experiments. The result shows that the current sensor faults can be detected and located successfully and that it can effectively provide fault locations for maintenance personnel to keep the stable operation of the whole system.

Symbolic planning and reasoning are powerful tools for robots tackling complex tasks. However, the need to manually design the symbols restrict their applicability, especially for robots that are expected to act in open-ended environments. Therefore symbol formation and rule extraction should be considered part of robot learning, which, when done properly, will offer scalability, flexibility, and robustness. Towards this goal, we propose a novel general method that finds action-grounded, discrete object and effect categories and builds probabilistic rules over them for non-trivial action planning. Our robot interacts with objects using an initial action repertoire that is assumed to be acquired earlier and observes the effects it can create in the environment. To form action-grounded object, effect, and relational categories, we employ a binary bottleneck layer in a predictive, deep encoderdecoder network that takes the image of the scene and the action applied as input, and generates the resulting effects in the scene in pixel coordinates. After learning, the binary latent vector represents action-driven object categories based on the interaction experience of the robot. To distill the knowledge represented by the neural network into rules useful for symbolic reasoning, a decision tree is trained to reproduce its decoder function. Probabilistic rules are extracted from the decision paths of the tree and are represented in the Probabilistic Planning Domain Definition Language (PPDDL), allowing off-the-shelf planners to operate on the knowledge extracted from the sensorimotor experience of the robot. The deployment of the proposed approach for a simulated robotic manipulator enabled the discovery of discrete representations of object properties such as ‘rollable’ and ‘insertable’. In turn, the use of these representations as symbols allowed the generation of effective plans for achieving goals, such as building towers of the desired height, demonstrating the effectiveness of the approach for multi-step object manipulation. Finally, we demonstrate that the system is not only restricted to the robotics domain by assessing its applicability to the MNIST 8-puzzle domain in which learned symbols allow for the generation of plans that move the empty tile into any given position.

In this post, we'll be learning about decision trees, how they work and what the benefits are for using them. We'll also use this algorithm in a real-world data to predict diabetes. So, what are decision trees? Decision trees are a machine learning method for classification or regression. It works by segmenting the dataset through if-else control statements applied to the features.

We discuss an application of Generalized Random Forests (GRF) proposed by Athey et al.(2019) to quantile regression for time series data. We extracted the theoretical results of the GRF consistency for i.i.d. data to time series data. In particular, in the main theorem, based only on the general assumptions for time series data in Davis and Nielsen (2020), and trees in Athey et al.(2019), we show that the tsQRF (time series Quantile Regression Forests) estimator is consistent. Davis and Nielsen (2020) also discussed the estimation problem using Random Forests (RF) for time series data, but the construction procedure of the RF treated by the GRF is essentially different, and different ideas are used throughout the theoretical proof. In addition, a simulation and real data analysis were conducted.In the simulation, the accuracy of the conditional quantile estimation was evaluated under time series models. In the real data using the Nikkei Stock Average, our estimator is demonstrated to be more sensitive than the others in terms of volatility, thus preventing underestimation of risk.