In time series forecasting, decomposition-based algorithms break aggregate data into meaningful components and are therefore appreciated for their particular advantages in interpretability. Recent algorithms often combine machine learning (hereafter ML) methodology with decomposition to improve prediction accuracy. However, incorporating ML is generally considered to sacrifice interpretability inevitably. In addition, existing hybrid algorithms usually rely on theoretical models with statistical assumptions and focus only on the accuracy of aggregate predictions, and thus suffer from accuracy problems, especially in component estimates. In response to the above issues, this research explores the possibility of improving accuracy without losing interpretability in time series forecasting. We first quantitatively define interpretability for data-driven forecasts and systematically review the existing forecasting algorithms from the perspective of interpretability. Accordingly, we propose the W-R algorithm, a hybrid algorithm that combines decomposition and ML from a novel perspective. Specifically, the W-R algorithm replaces the standard additive combination function with a weighted variant and uses ML to modify the estimates of all components simultaneously. We mathematically analyze the theoretical basis of the algorithm and validate its performance through extensive numerical experiments. In general, the W-R algorithm outperforms all decomposition-based and ML benchmarks. Based on P50_QL, the algorithm relatively improves by 8.76% in accuracy on the practical sales forecasts of JD.com and 77.99% on a public dataset of electricity loads. This research offers an innovative perspective to combine the statistical and ML algorithms, and JD.com has implemented the W-R algorithm to make accurate sales predictions and guide its marketing activities.

The cyber-physical convergence is opening up new business opportunities for industrial operators. The need for deep integration of the cyber and the physical worlds establishes a rich business agenda towards consolidating new system and network engineering approaches. This revolution would not be possible without the rich and heterogeneous sources of data, as well as the ability of their intelligent exploitation, mainly due to the fact that data will serve as a fundamental resource to promote Industry 4.0. One of the most fruitful research and practice areas emerging from this data-rich, cyber-physical, smart factory environment is the data-driven process monitoring field, which applies machine learning methodologies to enable predictive maintenance applications. In this paper, we examine popular time series forecasting techniques as well as supervised machine learning algorithms in the applied context of Industry 4.0, by transforming and preprocessing the historical industrial dataset of a packing machine's operational state recordings (real data coming from the production line of a manufacturing plant from the food and beverage domain). In our methodology, we use only a single signal concerning the machine's operational status to make our predictions, without considering other operational variables or fault and warning signals, hence its characterization as ``agnostic''. In this respect, the results demonstrate that the adopted methods achieve a quite promising performance on three targeted use cases.

Explainability of a classification model is crucial when deployed in real-world decision support systems. Explanations make predictions actionable to the user and should inform about the capabilities and limitations of the system. Existing explanation methods, however, typically only provide explanations for individual predictions. Information about conditions under which the classifier is able to support the decision maker is not available, while for instance information about when the system is not able to differentiate classes can be very helpful. In the development phase it can support the search for new features or combining models, and in the operational phase it supports decision makers in deciding e.g. not to use the system. This paper presents a method to explain the qualities of a trained base classifier, called PERFormance EXplainer (PERFEX). Our method consists of a meta tree learning algorithm that is able to predict and explain under which conditions the base classifier has a high or low error or any other classification performance metric. We evaluate PERFEX using several classifiers and datasets, including a case study with urban mobility data. It turns out that PERFEX typically has high meta prediction performance even if the base classifier is hardly able to differentiate classes, while giving compact performance explanations.

In many applications, heterogeneous treatment effects on a censored response variable are of primary interest, and it is natural to evaluate the effects at different quantiles (e.g., median). The large number of potential effect modifiers, the unknown structure of the treatment effects, and the presence of right censoring pose significant challenges. In this paper, we develop a hybrid forest approach called Hybrid Censored Quantile Regression Forest (HCQRF) to assess the heterogeneous effects varying with high-dimensional variables. The hybrid estimation approach takes advantage of the random forests and the censored quantile regression. We propose a doubly-weighted estimation procedure that consists of a redistribution-of-mass weight to handle censoring and an adaptive nearest neighbor weight derived from the forest to handle high-dimensional effect functions. We propose a variable importance decomposition to measure the impact of a variable on the treatment effect function. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate the efficacy and stability of HCQRF. The result of the simulation study also convinces us of the effectiveness of the variable importance decomposition. We apply HCQRF to a clinical trial of colorectal cancer. We achieve insightful estimations of the treatment effect and meaningful variable importance results. The result of the variable importance also confirms the necessity of the decomposition.

Are you looking for how to choose n_estimators in the random forest? Actually, n_estimators defines in the underline decision tree in Random Forest. See! the Random Forest algorithms is a bagging Technique. Where we ensemble many weak learn to decrease the variance. The n_estimators is a hyperparameter for Random Forest.

If you missed the previous part of this blog "In to Decision Trees Part: 1", please visit it. In this blog, we will explore more about Decision Trees Algorithm and its capability. The Process of Decision trees on Numerical (Discrete/Continuous) features is slightly different than categorical features. While the Decision trees can handle categorical variables with ease. There are two types of categorical values.

Shapley values are ubiquitous in interpretable Machine Learning due to their strong theoretical background and efficient implementation in the SHAP library. Computing these values previously induced an exponential cost with respect to the number of input features of an opaque model. Now, with efficient implementations such as Interventional TreeSHAP, this exponential burden is alleviated assuming one is explaining ensembles of decision trees. Although Interventional TreeSHAP has risen in popularity, it still lacks a formal proof of how/why it works. We provide such proof with the aim of not only increasing the transparency of the algorithm but also to encourage further development of these ideas. Notably, our proof for Interventional TreeSHAP is easily adapted to Shapley-Taylor indices and one-hot-encoded features.

The rapidly increasing number of internet of things (IoT) and non-IoT devices has imposed new security challenges to network administrators. Accurate device identification in the increasingly complex network structures is necessary. In this paper, a device fingerprinting (DFP) method has been proposed for device identification, based on digital footprints, which devices use for communication over a network. A subset of nine features have been selected from the network and transport layers of a single transmission control protocol/internet protocol packet based on attribute evaluators in Weka, to generate device-specific signatures. The method has been evaluated on two online datasets, and an experimental dataset, using different supervised machine learning (ML) algorithms. Results have shown that the method is able to distinguish device type with up to 100% precision using the random forest (RF) classifier, and classify individual devices with up to 95.7% precision. These results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed DFP method for device identification, in order to provide a more secure and robust network.

Data is the fuel of Artificial Intelligence (AI). This is my opinion after researching this idea, but probably many experts would agree as the sentiment is widely accepted. Data alone can't prop up AI predictions, but without data, the system will not make predictions. Data biases are a major problem for an AI prediction if the AI model gives the wrong suggestion or answer. "Kindness is invincible, but only when it's sincere, with no hypocrisy or faking. For what can even the most malicious person do if you keep showing kindness and, if given the chance, you gently point out where they went wrong -- right as they are trying to harm you?" -- MARCUS AURELIUS, MEDITATIONS, 11.18.5.9a

Volkswagen's electric car lineup is now mature enough that it's introducing second-generation models -- and it appears the company is taking some criticism to heart. VW has teased a redesign of the ID.3 that addresses complaints about the first version while upgrading the technology. The compact EV now sports a "matured" design with a supposedly sharper-looking exterior and higher-quality interior materials. Importantly, it's also more functional -- there's a larger 12-inch infotainment display, two cupholders in the center console and a removable luggage compartment floor. The tech may be the centerpiece.