In this paper, we introduce Optimal Classification Forests, a new family of classifiers that takes advantage of an optimal ensemble of decision trees to derive accurate and interpretable classifiers. We propose a novel mathematical optimization-based methodology in which a given number of trees are simultaneously constructed, each of them providing a predicted class for the observations in the feature space. The classification rule is derived by assigning to each observation its most frequently predicted class among the trees in the forest. We provide a mixed integer linear programming formulation for the problem. We report the results of our computational experiments, from which we conclude that our proposed method has equal or superior performance compared with state-of-the-art tree-based classification methods. More importantly, it achieves high prediction accuracy with, for example, orders of magnitude fewer trees than random forests. We also present three real-world case studies showing that our methodology has very interesting implications in terms of interpretability.

Classification trees continue to be widely adopted in machine learning applications due to their inherently interpretable nature and scalability. We propose a rolling subtree lookahead algorithm that combines the relative scalability of the myopic approaches with the foresight of the optimal approaches in constructing trees. The limited foresight embedded in our algorithm mitigates the learning pathology observed in optimal approaches. At the heart of our algorithm lies a novel two-depth optimal binary classification tree formulation flexible to handle any loss function. We show that the feasible region of this formulation is an integral polyhedron, yielding the LP relaxation solution optimal. Through extensive computational analyses, we demonstrate that our approach outperforms optimal and myopic approaches in 808 out of 1330 problem instances, improving the out-of-sample accuracy by up to 23.6% and 14.4%, respectively.

Most machine learning methods assume that the input data distribution is the same in the training and testing phases. However, in practice, this stationarity is usually not met and the distribution of inputs differs, leading to unexpected performance of the learned model in deployment. The issue in which the training and test data inputs follow different probability distributions while the input-output relationship remains unchanged is referred to as covariate shift. In this paper, the performance of conventional machine learning models was experimentally evaluated in the presence of covariate shift. Furthermore, a region-based evaluation was performed by decomposing the domain of probability density function of the input data to assess the classifier's performance per domain region. Distributional changes were simulated in a two-dimensional classification problem. Subsequently, a higher four-dimensional experiments were conducted. Based on the experimental analysis, the Random Forests algorithm is the most robust classifier in the two-dimensional case, showing the lowest degradation rate for accuracy and F1-score metrics, with a range between 0.1% and 2.08%. Moreover, the results reveal that in higher-dimensional experiments, the performance of the models is predominantly influenced by the complexity of the classification function, leading to degradation rates exceeding 25% in most cases. It is also concluded that the models exhibit high bias towards the region with high density in the input space domain of the training samples.

In Geosciences a class of phenomena that is widely studied given its real impact on human life are the tectonic faults slip. These landslides have different ways to manifest, ranging from aseismic events of slow displacement (slow slips) to ordinary earthquakes. An example of continuous slow slip event was identified in Cascadia, near the island of Vancouver (CA). This slow slip event is associated with a tectonic movements, when the overriding North America plate lurches southwesterly over the subducting Juan de Fuca plate. This region is located down-dip the seismogenic rupture zone, which has not been activated since 1700s but has been cyclically loaded by the slow slip movement. This fact requires some attention, since slow slip events have already been reported in literature as possible triggering factors for earthquakes. Nonetheless, the physical models to describe the slow slip events are still incomplete, which restricts the detailed knowledge of the movements and the associated tremor. In the original paper, the strategy adopted by the authors to address the limitation of the current models for the slow slip events was to use Random Forest machine learning algorithm to construct a model capable to predict GPS displacement measurement from the continuous seismic data. This investigation is sustained in the fact that the statistical features of the seismic data are a fingerprint of the fault displacement rate. Therefore, predicting GPS data from seismic data can make GPS measurements a proxy for investigating the fault slip physics and, additionally, correlate this slow slip events with associated tremors that can be studied in laboratory. The purpose of this report is to expose the methodology adopted by the authors and try to reproduce their results as coherent as possible with the original work.

Explainability in yield prediction helps us fully explore the potential of machine learning models that are already able to achieve high accuracy for a variety of yield prediction scenarios. The data included for the prediction of yields are intricate and the models are often difficult to understand. However, understanding the models can be simplified by using natural groupings of the input features. Grouping can be achieved, for example, by the time the features are captured or by the sensor used to do so. The state-of-the-art for interpreting machine learning models is currently defined by the game-theoretic approach of Shapley values. To handle groups of features, the calculated Shapley values are typically added together, ignoring the theoretical limitations of this approach. We explain the concept of Shapley values directly computed for predefined groups of features and introduce an algorithm to compute them efficiently on tree structures. We provide a blueprint for designing swarm plots that combine many local explanations for global understanding. Extensive evaluation of two different yield prediction problems shows the worth of our approach and demonstrates how we can enable a better understanding of yield prediction models in the future, ultimately leading to mutual enrichment of research and application.

However, the existence of automated accounts, also known as social bots, has brought many problems to social media. These bots have been employed to disseminate false information, manipulate elections, and deceive users, resulting in negative societal consequences [1; 2; 3]. Effectively detecting bots on social media plays an important role in protecting user interests and ensuring stable platform operation. Therefore, the accurate detection of bots on social media platforms is becoming increasingly crucial. Random Forest (RF) [4] is a classical algorithm of ensemble learning that can significantly improve the performance of the base classifier, Decision Tree (DT) [5]. Specifically, S sub-training sets are generated by randomly selecting n samples with replacement from the original training set of N samples S times. Then, m features are selected from the M-dimensional features of each sub-training set, and S base classifiers are trained using different sub-training sets. The final classification result is determined by the voting of the base classifiers. Due to its excellent performance, RF has been widely applied in various competitions, such as data mining and financial risk detection, and is also frequently used in social bot detection.

The decision tree ensembles use a single data feature at each node for splitting the data. However, splitting in this manner may fail to capture the geometric properties of the data. Thus, oblique decision trees generate the oblique hyperplane for splitting the data at each non-leaf node. Oblique decision trees capture the geometric properties of the data and hence, show better generalization. The performance of the oblique decision trees depends on the way oblique hyperplanes are generate and the data used for the generation of those hyperplanes. Recently, multiple classifiers have been used in a heterogeneous random forest (RaF) classifier, however, it fails to generate the trees of proper depth. Moreover, double RaF studies highlighted that larger trees can be generated via bootstrapping the data at each non-leaf node and splitting the original data instead of the bootstrapped data recently. The study of heterogeneous RaF lacks the generation of larger trees while as the double RaF based model fails to take over the geometric characteristics of the data. To address these shortcomings, we propose heterogeneous oblique double RaF. The proposed model employs several linear classifiers at each non-leaf node on the bootstrapped data and splits the original data based on the optimal linear classifier. The optimal hyperplane corresponds to the models based on the optimized impurity criterion. The experimental analysis indicates that the performance of the introduced heterogeneous double random forest is comparatively better than the baseline models. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed heterogeneous double random forest, we used it for the diagnosis of Schizophrenia disease. The proposed model predicted the disease more accurately compared to the baseline models.

Gradient Boosting Machines (GBMs) have demonstrated remarkable success in solving diverse problems by utilizing Taylor expansions in functional space. However, achieving a balance between performance and generality has posed a challenge for GBMs. In particular, gradient descent-based GBMs employ the first-order Taylor expansion to ensure applicability to all loss functions, while Newton's method-based GBMs use positive Hessian information to achieve superior performance at the expense of generality. To address this issue, this study proposes a new generic Gradient Boosting Machine called Trust-region Boosting (TRBoost). In each iteration, TRBoost uses a constrained quadratic model to approximate the objective and applies the Trust-region algorithm to solve it and obtain a new learner. Unlike Newton's method-based GBMs, TRBoost does not require the Hessian to be positive definite, thereby allowing it to be applied to arbitrary loss functions while still maintaining competitive performance similar to second-order algorithms. The convergence analysis and numerical experiments conducted in this study confirm that TRBoost is as general as first-order GBMs and yields competitive results compared to second-order GBMs. Overall, TRBoost is a promising approach that balances performance and generality, making it a valuable addition to the toolkit of machine learning practitioners.

This study aims to determine a predictive model to learn students probability to pass their courses taken at the earliest stage of the semester. To successfully discover a good predictive model with high acceptability, accurate, and precision rate which delivers a useful outcome for decision making in education systems, in improving the processes of conveying knowledge and uplifting students academic performance, the proponent applies and strictly followed the CRISP-DM (Cross-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining) methodology. This study employs classification for data mining techniques, and decision tree for algorithm. With the utilization of the newly discovered predictive model, the prediction of students probabilities to pass the current courses they take gives 0.7619 accuracy, 0.8333 precision, 0.8823 recall, and 0.8571 f1 score, which shows that the model used in the prediction is reliable, accurate, and recommendable. Considering the indicators and the results, it can be noted that the prediction model used in this study is highly acceptable. The data mining techniques provides effective and efficient innovative tools in analyzing and predicting student performances. The model used in this study will greatly affect the way educators understand and identify the weakness of their students in the class, the way they improved the effectiveness of their learning processes gearing to their students, bring down academic failure rates, and help institution administrators modify their learning system outcomes. Further study for the inclusion of some students demographic information, vast amount of data within the dataset, automated and manual process of predictive criteria indicators where the students can regulate to which criteria, they must improve more for them to pass their courses taken at the end of the semester as early as midterm period are highly needed.

One major issue in learning-based model predictive control (MPC) for autonomous driving is the contradiction between the system model's prediction accuracy and computation efficiency. The more situations a system model covers, the more complex it is, along with highly nonlinear and nonconvex properties. These issues make the optimization too complicated to solve and render real-time control impractical.To address these issues, we propose a hierarchical learning residual model which leverages random forests and linear regression.The learned model consists of two levels. The low level uses linear regression to fit the residues, and the high level uses random forests to switch different linear models. Meanwhile, we adopt the linear dynamic bicycle model with error states as the nominal model.The switched linear regression model is added to the nominal model to form the system model. It reformulates the learning-based MPC as a quadratic program (QP) problem and optimization solvers can effectively solve it. Experimental path tracking results show that the driving vehicle's prediction accuracy and tracking accuracy are significantly improved compared with the nominal MPC.Compared with the state-of-the-art Gaussian process-based nonlinear model predictive control (GP-NMPC), our method gets better performance on tracking accuracy while maintaining a lower computation consumption.