Two types of explanations have been receiving increased attention in the literature when analyzing the decisions made by classifiers. The first type explains why a decision was made and is known as a sufficient reason for the decision, also an abductive explanation or a PI-explanation. The second type explains why some other decision was not made and is known as a necessary reason for the decision, also a contrastive or counterfactual explanation. These explanations were defined for classifiers with binary, discrete and, in some cases, continuous features. We show that these explanations can be significantly improved in the presence of non-binary features, leading to a new class of explanations that relay more information about decisions and the underlying classifiers. Necessary and sufficient reasons were also shown to be the prime implicates and implicants of the complete reason for a decision, which can be obtained using a quantification operator. We show that our improved notions of necessary and sufficient reasons are also prime implicates and implicants but for an improved notion of complete reason obtained by a new quantification operator that we also define and study.

Feature selection is popular for obtaining small, interpretable, yet highly accurate prediction models. Conventional feature-selection methods typically yield one feature set only, which might not suffice in some scenarios. For example, users might be interested in finding alternative feature sets with similar prediction quality, offering different explanations of the data. In this article, we introduce alternative feature selection and formalize it as an optimization problem. In particular, we define alternatives via constraints and enable users to control the number and dissimilarity of alternatives. Next, we analyze the complexity of this optimization problem and show NP-hardness. Further, we discuss how to integrate conventional feature-selection methods as objectives. Finally, we evaluate alternative feature selection with 30 classification datasets. We observe that alternative feature sets may indeed have high prediction quality, and we analyze several factors influencing this outcome.

To improve the uncertainty quantification of variance networks, we propose a novel tree-structured local neural network model that partitions the feature space into multiple regions based on uncertainty heterogeneity. A tree is built upon giving the training data, whose leaf nodes represent different regions where region-specific neural networks are trained to predict both the mean and the variance for quantifying uncertainty. The proposed Uncertainty-Splitting Neural Regression Tree (USNRT) employs novel splitting criteria. At each node, a neural network is trained on the full data first, and a statistical test for the residuals is conducted to find the best split, corresponding to the two sub-regions with the most significant uncertainty heterogeneity between them. USNRT is computationally friendly because very few leaf nodes are sufficient and pruning is unnecessary. Furthermore, an ensemble version can be easily constructed to estimate the total uncertainty including the aleatory and epistemic. On extensive UCI datasets, USNRT or its ensemble shows superior performance compared to some recent popular methods for quantifying uncertainty with variances. Through comprehensive visualization and analysis, we uncover how USNRT works and show its merits, revealing that uncertainty heterogeneity does exist in many datasets and can be learned by USNRT.

Decision trees are among the most popular machine learning models and are used routinely in applications ranging from revenue management and medicine to bioinformatics. In this paper, we consider the problem of learning optimal binary classification trees with univariate splits. Literature on the topic has burgeoned in recent years, motivated both by the empirical suboptimality of heuristic approaches and the tremendous improvements in mixed-integer optimization (MIO) technology. Yet, existing MIO-based approaches from the literature do not leverage the power of MIO to its full extent: they rely on weak formulations, resulting in slow convergence and large optimality gaps. To fill this gap in the literature, we propose an intuitive flow-based MIO formulation for learning optimal binary classification trees. Our formulation can accommodate side constraints to enable the design of interpretable and fair decision trees. Moreover, we show that our formulation has a stronger linear optimization relaxation than existing methods in the case of binary data. We exploit the decomposable structure of our formulation and max-flow/min-cut duality to derive a Benders' decomposition method to speed-up computation. We propose a tailored procedure for solving each decomposed subproblem that provably generates facets of the feasible set of the MIO as constraints to add to the main problem. We conduct extensive computational experiments on standard benchmark datasets on which we show that our proposed approaches are 29 times faster than state-of-the-art MIO-based techniques and improve out-of-sample performance by up to 8%.

In this paper, we address an issue of finding explainable clusters of class-uniform data in labelled datasets. The issue falls into the domain of interpretable supervised clustering. Unlike traditional clustering, supervised clustering aims at forming clusters of labelled data with high probability densities. We are particularly interested in finding clusters of data of a given class and describing the clusters with the set of comprehensive rules. We propose an iterative method to extract high-density clusters with the help of decisiontree-based classifiers as the most intuitive learning method, and discuss the method of node selection to maximize quality of identified groups.

Previously, we proposed a probabilistic data generation model represented by an unobservable tree and a sequential updating method to calculate a posterior distribution over a set of trees. The set is called a meta-tree. In this paper, we propose a more efficient batch updating method.

The classification of fifth-generation New-Radio (5G-NR) mobile network traffic is an emerging topic in the field of telecommunications. It can be utilized for quality of service (QoS) management and dynamic resource allocation. However, traditional approaches such as Deep Packet Inspection (DPI) can not be directly applied to encrypted data flows. Therefore, new real-time encrypted traffic classification algorithms need to be investigated to handle dynamic transmission. In this study, we examine the real-time encrypted 5G Non-Standalone (NSA) application-level traffic classification using physical channel records. Due to the vastness of their features, decision-tree-based gradient boosting algorithms are a viable approach for classification. We generate a noise-limited 5G NSA trace dataset with traffic from multiple applications. We develop a new pipeline to convert sequences of physical channel records into numerical vectors. A set of machine learning models are tested, and we propose our solution based on Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM) due to its advantages in fast parallel training and low computational burden in practical scenarios. Our experiments demonstrate that our algorithm can achieve 95% accuracy on the classification task with a state-of-the-art response time as quick as 10ms.

We present our work on electric bicycles (e-bikes) and their implications for policymakers in the United States. E-bikes have gained significant popularity as a fast and eco-friendly transportation option. As we strive for a sustainable energy plan, understanding the growth and impact of e-bikes is crucial for policymakers. Our mathematical modeling offers insights into the value of e-bikes and their role in the future. Using an ARIMA model, a supervised machine-learning algorithm, we predicted the growth of e-bike sales in the U.S. Our model, trained on historical sales data from January 2006 to December 2022, projected sales of 1.3 million units in 2025 and 2.113 million units in 2028. To assess the factors contributing to e-bike usage, we employed a Random Forest regression model. The most significant factors influencing e-bike sales growth were disposable personal income and popularity. Furthermore, we examined the environmental and health impacts of e-bikes. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we estimated the reduction in carbon emissions due to e-bike use and the calories burned through e-biking. Our findings revealed that e-bike usage in the U.S. resulted in a reduction of 15,737.82 kilograms of CO2 emissions in 2022. Additionally, e-bike users burned approximately 716,630.727 kilocalories through their activities in the same year. Our research provides valuable insights for policymakers, emphasizing the potential of e-bikes as a sustainable transportation solution. By understanding the growth factors and quantifying the environmental and health benefits, policymakers can make informed decisions about integrating e-bikes into future energy and transportation strategies.

Prescriptive business process monitoring provides decision support to process managers on when and how to adapt an ongoing business process to prevent or mitigate an undesired process outcome. We focus on the problem of automatically reconciling the trade-off between prediction accuracy and prediction earliness in determining when to adapt. Adaptations should happen sufficiently early to provide enough lead time for the adaptation to become effective. However, earlier predictions are typically less accurate than later predictions. This means that acting on less accurate predictions may lead to unnecessary adaptations or missed adaptations. Different approaches were presented in the literature to reconcile the trade-off between prediction accuracy and earliness. So far, these approaches were compared with different baselines, and evaluated using different data sets or even confidential data sets. This limits the comparability and replicability of the approaches and makes it difficult to choose a concrete approach in practice. We perform a comparative evaluation of the main alternative approaches for reconciling the trade-off between prediction accuracy and earliness. Using four public real-world event log data sets and two types of prediction models, we assess and compare the cost savings of these approaches. The experimental results indicate which criteria affect the effectiveness of an approach and help us state initial recommendations for the selection of a concrete approach in practice.

Data-driven approaches, aided by high-fidelity simulations and Machine Learning (ML), are gaining popularity To achieve virtual certification for industrial design, in RANS turbulence modeling (Heyse et al., 2021; quantifying the uncertainties in simulationdriven Matha & Kucharczyk, 2022). The present study, which processes is crucial. We discuss a physicsconstrained was the foundation of the CFD application results in our approach to account for epistemic previous paper (Matha et al., 2023), focuses on the use of uncertainty of turbulence models. In order to data-driven methods in order to identify flow regions with eliminate user input, we incorporate a data-driven potential turbulence model prediction inaccuracies.