This paper examines the effectiveness of several forecasting methods for predicting inflation, focusing on aggregating disaggregated forecasts - also known in the literature as the bottom-up approach. Taking the Brazilian case as an application, we consider different disaggregation levels for inflation and employ a range of traditional time series techniques as well as linear and nonlinear machine learning (ML) models to deal with a larger number of predictors. For many forecast horizons, the aggregation of disaggregated forecasts performs just as well survey-based expectations and models that generate forecasts using the aggregate directly. Overall, ML methods outperform traditional time series models in predictive accuracy, with outstanding performance in forecasting disaggregates. Our results reinforce the benefits of using models in a data-rich environment for inflation forecasting, including aggregating disaggregated forecasts from ML techniques, mainly during volatile periods. Starting from the COVID-19 pandemic, the random forest model based on both aggregate and disaggregated inflation achieves remarkable predictive performance at intermediate and longer horizons.

Tablature notation is widely used in popular music to transcribe and share guitar musical content. As a complement to standard score notation, tablatures transcribe performance gesture information including finger positions and a variety of guitar-specific playing techniques such as slides, hammer-on/pull-off or bends.This paper focuses on bends, which enable to progressively shift the pitch of a note, therefore circumventing physical limitations of the discrete fretted fingerboard. In this paper, we propose a set of 25 high-level features, computed for each note of the tablature, to study how bend occurrences can be predicted from their past and future short-term context. Experiments are performed on a corpus of 932 lead guitar tablatures of popular music and show that a decision tree successfully predicts bend occurrences with an F1 score of 0.71 anda limited amount of false positive predictions, demonstrating promising applications to assist the arrangement of non-guitar music into guitar tablatures.

Collaborative manipulation is inherently multimodal, with haptic communication playing a central role. When performed by humans, it involves back-and-forth force exchanges between the participants through which they resolve possible conflicts and determine their roles. Much of the existing work on collaborative human-robot manipulation assumes that the robot follows the human. But for a robot to match the performance of a human partner it needs to be able to take initiative and lead when appropriate. To achieve such human-like performance, the robot needs to have the ability to (1) determine the intent of the human, (2) clearly express its own intent, and (3) choose its actions so that the dyad reaches consensus. This work proposes a framework for recognizing human intent in collaborative manipulation tasks using force exchanges. Grounded in a dataset collected during a human study, we introduce a set of features that can be computed from the measured signals and report the results of a classifier trained on our collected human-human interaction data. Two metrics are used to evaluate the intent recognizer: overall accuracy and the ability to correctly identify transitions. The proposed recognizer shows robustness against the variations in the partner's actions and the confounding effects due to the variability in grasp forces and dynamic effects of walking. The results demonstrate that the proposed recognizer is well-suited for implementation in a physical interaction control scheme.

While data-driven predictive models are a strictly technological construct, they may operate within a social context in which benign engineering choices entail implicit, indirect and unexpected real-life consequences. Fairness of such systems -- pertaining both to individuals and groups -- is one relevant consideration in this space; it arises when data capture protected characteristics upon which people may be discriminated. To date, this notion has predominantly been studied for a fixed model, often under different classification thresholds, striving to identify and eradicate undesirable, discriminative and possibly unlawful aspects of its operation. Here, we backtrack on this fixed model assumption to propose and explore a novel definition of cross-model fairness where individuals can be harmed when one predictor is chosen ad hoc from a group of equally-well performing models, i.e., in view of utility-based model multiplicity. Since a person may be classified differently across models that are otherwise considered equivalent, this individual could argue for a predictor granting them the most favourable outcome, employing which may have adverse effects on others. We introduce this scenario with a two-dimensional example and linear classification; then, we present a comprehensive empirical study based on real-life predictive models and data sets that are popular with the algorithmic fairness community; finally, we investigate analytical properties of cross-model fairness and its ramifications in a broader context. Our findings suggest that such unfairness can be readily found in the real life and it may be difficult to mitigate by technical means alone as doing so is likely to degrade predictive performance.

Data management and analysis tasks are often carried out using spreadsheet software. A popular feature in most spreadsheet platforms is the ability to define data-dependent formatting rules. These rules can express actions such as "color red all entries in a column that are negative" or "bold all rows not containing error or failure." Unfortunately, users who want to exercise this functionality need to manually write these conditional formatting (CF) rules. We introduce CORNET, a system that automatically learns such conditional formatting rules from user examples. CORNET takes inspiration from inductive program synthesis and combines symbolic rule enumeration, based on semi-supervised clustering and iterative decision tree learning, with a neural ranker to produce accurate conditional formatting rules. In this demonstration, we show CORNET in action as a simple add-in to Microsoft Excel. After the user provides one or two formatted cells as examples, CORNET generates formatting rule suggestions for the user to apply to the spreadsheet.

Decision Tree is a well understood Machine Learning model that is based on minimizing impurities in the internal nodes. The most common impurity measures are Shannon entropy and Gini impurity. These impurity measures are insensitive to the order of training data and hence the final tree obtained is invariant to any permutation of the data. This leads to a serious limitation in modeling data instances that have order dependencies. In this work, we propose the use of Effort-To-Compress (ETC) - a complexity measure, for the first time, as an impurity measure. Unlike Shannon entropy and Gini impurity, structural impurity based on ETC is able to capture order dependencies in the data, thus obtaining potentially different decision trees for different permutations of the same data instances (Permutation Decision Trees). We then introduce the notion of Permutation Bagging achieved using permutation decision trees without the need for random feature selection and sub-sampling. We compare the performance of the proposed permutation bagged decision trees with Random Forests. Our model does not assume that the data instances are independent and identically distributed. Potential applications include scenarios where a temporal order present in the data instances is to be respected.

Traffic management systems play a vital role in ensuring safe and efficient transportation on roads. However, the use of advanced technologies in traffic management systems has introduced new safety challenges. Therefore, it is important to ensure the safety of these systems to prevent accidents and minimize their impact on road users. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of the literature on safety in traffic management systems. Specifically, we discuss the different safety issues that arise in traffic management systems, the current state of research on safety in these systems, and the techniques and methods proposed to ensure the safety of these systems. We also identify the limitations of the existing research and suggest future research directions.

Heart failure is a life-threatening condition that affects millions of people worldwide. The ability to accurately predict patient survival can aid in early intervention and improve patient outcomes. In this study, we explore the potential of utilizing data pre-processing techniques and the Extra-Tree (ET) feature selection method in conjunction with the Random Forest (RF) classifier to improve survival prediction in heart failure patients. By leveraging the strengths of ET feature selection, we aim to identify the most significant predictors associated with heart failure survival. Using the public UCL Heart failure (HF) survival dataset, we employ the ET feature selection algorithm to identify the most informative features. These features are then used as input for grid search of RF. Finally, the tuned RF Model was trained and evaluated using different matrices. The approach was achieved 98.33% accuracy that is the highest over the exiting work.

Causal random forests provide efficient estimates of heterogeneous treatment effects. However, forest algorithms are also well-known for their black-box nature, and therefore, do not characterize how input variables are involved in treatment effect heterogeneity, which is a strong practical limitation. In this article, we develop a new importance variable algorithm for causal forests, to quantify the impact of each input on the heterogeneity of treatment effects. The proposed approach is inspired from the drop and relearn principle, widely used for regression problems. Importantly, we show how to handle the forest retrain without a confounding variable. If the confounder is not involved in the treatment effect heterogeneity, the local centering step enforces consistency of the importance measure. Otherwise, when a confounder also impacts heterogeneity, we introduce a corrective term in the retrained causal forest to recover consistency. Additionally, experiments on simulated, semi-synthetic, and real data show the good performance of our importance measure, which outperforms competitors on several test cases. Experiments also show that our approach can be efficiently extended to groups of variables, providing key insights in practice.

Tabular data represents one of the most prevalent form of data. When it comes to data generation, many approaches would learn a density for the data generation process, but would not necessarily end up with a sampler, even less so being exact with respect to the underlying density. A second issue is on models: while complex modeling based on neural nets thrives in image or text generation (etc.), less is known for powerful generative models on tabular data. A third problem is the visible chasm on tabular data between training algorithms for supervised learning with remarkable properties (e.g. boosting), and a comparative lack of guarantees when it comes to data generation. In this paper, we tackle the three problems, introducing new tree-based generative models convenient for density modeling and tabular data generation that improve on modeling capabilities of recent proposals, and a training algorithm which simplifies the training setting of previous approaches and displays boosting-compliant convergence. This algorithm has the convenient property to rely on a supervised training scheme that can be implemented by a few tweaks to the most popular induction scheme for decision tree induction with two classes. Experiments are provided on missing data imputation and comparing generated data to real data, displaying the quality of the results obtained by our approach, in particular against state of the art.