Distributional Random Forest (DRF) is a flexible forest-based method to estimate the full conditional distribution of a multivariate output of interest given input variables. In this article, we introduce a variable importance algorithm for DRFs, based on the well-established drop and relearn principle and MMD distance. While traditional importance measures only detect variables with an influence on the output mean, our algorithm detects variables impacting the output distribution more generally. We show that the introduced importance measure is consistent, exhibits high empirical performance on both real and simulated data, and outperforms competitors. In particular, our algorithm is highly efficient to select variables through recursive feature elimination, and can therefore provide small sets of variables to build accurate estimates of conditional output distributions.

Random Forest (RF) is a well-known data-driven algorithm applied in several fields thanks to its flexibility in modeling the relationship between the response variable and the predictors, also in case of strong non-linearities. In environmental applications, it often occurs that the phenomenon of interest may present spatial and/or temporal dependence that is not taken explicitly into account by RF in its standard version. In this work, we propose a taxonomy to classify strategies according to when (Pre-, In- and/or Post-processing) they try to include the spatial information into regression RF. Moreover, we provide a systematic review and classify the most recent strategies adopted to "adjust" regression RF to spatially dependent data, based on the criteria provided by the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA). The latter consists of a reproducible methodology for collecting and processing existing literature on a specified topic from different sources. PRISMA starts with a query and ends with a set of scientific documents to review: we performed an online query on the 25$^{th}$ October 2022 and, in the end, 32 documents were considered for review. The employed methodological strategies and the application fields considered in the 32 scientific documents are described and discussed. This work falls inside the Agriculture Impact On Italian Air (AgrImOnIA) project.

The recent development of formal explainable AI has disputed the folklore claim that "decision trees are readily interpretable models", showing different interpretability queries that are computationally hard on decision trees, as well as proposing different methods to deal with them in practice. Nonetheless, no single explainability query or score works as a "silver bullet" that is appropriate for every context and end-user. This naturally suggests the possibility of "interpretability languages" in which a wide variety of queries can be expressed, giving control to the end-user to tailor queries to their particular needs. In this context, our work presents ExplainDT, a symbolic language for interpreting decision trees. ExplainDT is rooted in a carefully constructed fragment of first-ordered logic that we call StratiFOILed. StratiFOILed balances expressiveness and complexity of evaluation, allowing for the computation of many post-hoc explanations--both local (e.g., abductive and contrastive explanations) and global ones (e.g., feature relevancy)--while remaining in the Boolean Hierarchy over NP. Furthermore, StratiFOILed queries can be written as a Boolean combination of NP-problems, thus allowing us to evaluate them in practice with a constant number of calls to a SAT solver. On the theoretical side, our main contribution is an in-depth analysis of the expressiveness and complexity of StratiFOILed, while on the practical side, we provide an optimized implementation for encoding StratiFOILed queries as propositional formulas, together with an experimental study on its efficiency.

This paper is a quantitative analysis of the data collected globally by the World Value Survey. The data is used to study the trajectories of change in individuals' religious beliefs, values, and behaviors in societies. Utilizing random forest, we aim to identify the key factors of religiosity and classify respondents of the survey as religious and non religious using country level data. We use resampling techniques to balance the data and improve imbalanced learning performance metrics. The results of the variable importance analysis suggest that Age and Income are the most important variables in the majority of countries. The results are discussed with fundamental sociological theories regarding religion and human behavior. This study is an application of machine learning in identifying the underlying patterns in the data of 30 countries participating in the World Value Survey. The results from variable importance analysis and classification of imbalanced data provide valuable insights beneficial to theoreticians and researchers of social sciences.

Detecting travel modes from global navigation satellite system (GNSS) trajectories is essential for understanding individual travel behavior and a prerequisite for achieving sustainable transport systems. While studies have acknowledged the benefits of incorporating geospatial context information into travel mode detection models, few have summarized context modeling approaches and analyzed the significance of these context features, hindering the development of an efficient model. Here, we identify context representations from related work and propose an analytical pipeline to assess the contribution of geospatial context information for travel mode detection based on a random forest model and the SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) method. Through experiments on a large-scale GNSS tracking dataset, we report that features describing relationships with infrastructure networks, such as the distance to the railway or road network, significantly contribute to the model's prediction. Moreover, features related to the geospatial point entities help identify public transport travel, but most land-use and land-cover features barely contribute to the task. We finally reveal that geospatial contexts have distinct contributions in identifying different travel modes, providing insights into selecting appropriate context information and modeling approaches. The results from this study enhance our understanding of the relationship between movement and geospatial context and guide the implementation of effective and efficient transport mode detection models.

In this paper, we modify the proof methods of some previously weakly consistent variants of random forests into strongly consistent proof methods, and improve the data utilization of these variants in order to obtain better theoretical properties and experimental performance. In addition, we propose a data-driven multinomial random forest (DMRF), which has the same complexity with BreimanRF (proposed by Breiman) while satisfying strong consistency with probability 1. It has better performance in classification and regression problems than previous RF variants that only satisfy weak consistency, and in most cases even surpasses BreimanRF in classification tasks. To the best of our knowledge, DMRF is currently a low-complexity and high-performing variation of random forests that achieves strong consistency with probability 1.

The use of credit cards has recently increased, creating an essential need for credit card assessment methods to minimize potential risks. This study investigates the utilization of machine learning (ML) models for credit card default prediction system. The main goal here is to investigate the best-performing ML model for new proposed credit card scoring dataset. This new dataset includes credit card transaction histories and customer profiles, is proposed and tested using a variety of machine learning algorithms, including logistic regression, decision trees, random forests, multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural network, XGBoost, and LightGBM. To prepare the data for machine learning models, we perform data pre-processing, feature extraction, feature selection, and data balancing techniques. Experimental results demonstrate that MLP outperforms logistic regression, decision trees, random forests, LightGBM, and XGBoost in terms of predictive performance in true positive rate, achieving an impressive area under the curve (AUC) of 86.7% and an accuracy rate of 91.6%, with a recall rate exceeding 80%. These results indicate the superiority of MLP in predicting the default customers and assessing the potential risks. Furthermore, they help banks and other financial institutions in predicting loan defaults at an earlier stage.

Random forests, first introduced by Breiman (2001), are a workhorse in modern machine learning for classification and regression tasks. Their desirable traits include computational efficiency (via parallelization and greedy heuristics) in big data settings, simplicity of configuration and amenability to tuning parameter selection, ability to adapt to latent structure in high-dimensional data sets, and flexibility in handling mixed data types. Random forests have achieved great empirical successes in many fields of study, including healthcare, finance, online commerce, text analysis, bioinformatics, image classification, and ecology. Since Breiman introduced random forests over twenty years ago, the study of their statistical properties remains an active area of research: see Scornet et al. (2015), Chi et al. (2022), Klusowski and Tian (2023), and references therein, for a sample of recent developments. Many fundamental questions about Breiman's random forests remain unanswered, owing in part to the subtle ingredients present in the estimation procedure which make standard analytical tools ineffective. These technical difficulties stem from the way the constituent trees greedily partition the covariate space, utilizing both the covariate and response data. This creates complicated dependencies on the data that are often exceedingly hard to untangle without overly stringent assumptions, thereby hampering theoretical progress.

Regarding the rising number of people suffering from mental health illnesses in today's society, the importance of mental health cannot be overstated. Wearable sensors, which are increasingly widely available, provide a potential way to track and comprehend mental health issues. These gadgets not only monitor everyday activities but also continuously record vital signs like heart rate, perhaps providing information on a person's mental state. Recent research has used these sensors in conjunction with machine learning methods to identify patterns relating to different mental health conditions, highlighting the immense potential of this data beyond simple activity monitoring. In this research, we present a novel algorithm called the Hybrid Random forest - Neural network that has been tailored to evaluate sensor data from depressed patients. Our method has a noteworthy accuracy of 80\% when evaluated on a special dataset that included both unipolar and bipolar depressive patients as well as healthy controls. The findings highlight the algorithm's potential for reliably determining a person's depression condition using sensor data, making a substantial contribution to the area of mental health diagnostics.

The petroleum industry is crucial for modern society, but the production process is complex and risky. During the production, accidents or failures, resulting from undesired production events, can cause severe environmental and economic damage. Previous studies have investigated machine learning (ML) methods for undesired event detection. However, the prediction of event probability in real-time was insufficiently addressed, which is essential since it is important to undertake early intervention when an event is expected to happen. This paper proposes two ML approaches, random forests and temporal convolutional networks, to detect undesired events in real-time. Results show that our approaches can effectively classify event types and predict the probability of their appearance, addressing the challenges uncovered in previous studies and providing a more effective solution for failure event management during the production.