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### Bandits with many optimal arms

We consider a stochastic bandit problem with a possibly infinite number of arms. We write $p^*$ for the proportion of optimal arms and $\Delta$ for the minimal mean-gap between optimal and sub-optimal arms. We characterize the optimal learning rates both in the cumulative regret setting, and in the best-arm identification setting in terms of the problem parameters $T$ (the budget), $p^*$ and $\Delta$. For the objective of minimizing the cumulative regret, we provide a lower bound of order $\Omega(\log(T)/(p^*\Delta))$ and a UCB-style algorithm with matching upper bound up to a factor of $\log(1/\Delta)$. Our algorithm needs $p^*$ to calibrate its parameters, and we prove that this knowledge is necessary, since adapting to $p^*$ in this setting is impossible. For best-arm identification we also provide a lower bound of order $\Omega(\exp(-cT\Delta^2p^*))$ on the probability of outputting a sub-optimal arm where $c>0$ is an absolute constant. We also provide an elimination algorithm with an upper bound matching the lower bound up to a factor of order $\log(1/\Delta)$ in the exponential, and that does not need $p^*$ or $\Delta$ as parameter.

### New Machine Learning Theory Raises Questions About the Very Nature of Science

A novel computer algorithm, or set of rules, that accurately predicts the orbits of planets in the solar system could be adapted to better predict and control the behavior of the plasma that fuels fusion facilities designed to harvest on Earth the fusion energy that powers the sun and stars. The algorithm, devised by a scientist at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL), applies machine learning, the form of artificial intelligence (AI) that learns from experience, to develop the predictions. "Usually in physics, you make observations, create a theory based on those observations, and then use that theory to predict new observations," said PPPL physicist Hong Qin, author of a paper detailing the concept in Scientific Reports. "What I'm doing is replacing this process with a type of black box that can produce accurate predictions without using a traditional theory or law." Qin (pronounced Chin) created a computer program into which he fed data from past observations of the orbits of Mercury, Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, and the dwarf planet Ceres.

### Rissanen Data Analysis: Examining Dataset Characteristics via Description Length

We introduce a method to determine if a certain capability helps to achieve an accurate model of given data. We view labels as being generated from the inputs by a program composed of subroutines with different capabilities, and we posit that a subroutine is useful if and only if the minimal program that invokes it is shorter than the one that does not. Since minimum program length is uncomputable, we instead estimate the labels' minimum description length (MDL) as a proxy, giving us a theoretically-grounded method for analyzing dataset characteristics. We call the method Rissanen Data Analysis (RDA) after the father of MDL, and we showcase its applicability on a wide variety of settings in NLP, ranging from evaluating the utility of generating subquestions before answering a question, to analyzing the value of rationales and explanations, to investigating the importance of different parts of speech, and uncovering dataset gender bias.

### D'ya like DAGs? A Survey on Structure Learning and Causal Discovery

It is important for a broad range of applications, including policy making [136], medical imaging [30], advertisement [22], the development of medical treatments [189], the evaluation of evidence within legal frameworks [183, 218], social science [82, 96, 246], biology [235], and many others. It is also a burgeoning topic in machine learning and artificial intelligence [17, 66, 76, 144, 210, 247, 255], where it has been argued that a consideration for causality is crucial for reasoning about the world. In order to discover causal relations, and thereby gain causal understanding, one may perform interventions and manipulations as part of a randomized experiment. These experiments may not only allow researchers or agents to identify causal relationships, but also to estimate the magnitude of these relationships. Unfortunately, in many cases, it may not be possible to undertake such experiments due to prohibitive cost, ethical concerns, or impracticality.

### Parsimonious Inference

Bayesian inference provides a uniquely rigorous approach to obtain principled justification for uncertainty in predictions, yet it is difficult to articulate suitably general prior belief in the machine learning context, where computational architectures are pure abstractions subject to frequent modifications by practitioners attempting to improve results. Parsimonious inference is an information-theoretic formulation of inference over arbitrary architectures that formalizes Occam's Razor; we prefer simple and sufficient explanations. Our universal hyperprior assigns plausibility to prior descriptions, encoded as sequences of symbols, by expanding on the core relationships between program length, Kolmogorov complexity, and Solomonoff's algorithmic probability. We then cast learning as information minimization over our composite change in belief when an architecture is specified, training data are observed, and model parameters are inferred. By distinguishing model complexity from prediction information, our framework also quantifies the phenomenon of memorization. Although our theory is general, it is most critical when datasets are limited, e.g. small or skewed. We develop novel algorithms for polynomial regression and random forests that are suitable for such data, as demonstrated by our experiments. Our approaches combine efficient encodings with prudent sampling strategies to construct predictive ensembles without cross-validation, thus addressing a fundamental challenge in how to efficiently obtain predictions from data.

### The Mathematics of Machine Learning

In the last few months, I have had several people contact me about their enthusiasm for venturing into the world of data science and using Machine Learning (ML) techniques to probe statistical regularities and build impeccable data-driven products. However, I have observed that some actually lack the necessary mathematical intuition and framework to get useful results. This is the main reason I decided to write this blog post. Recently, there has been an upsurge in the availability of many easy-to-use machine and deep learning packages such as scikit-learn, Weka, Tensorflow, R-caret etc. Machine Learning theory is a field that intersects statistical, probabilistic, computer science and algorithmic aspects arising from learning iteratively from data and finding hidden insights which can be used to build intelligent applications. Despite the immense possibilities of Machine and Deep Learning, a thorough mathematical understanding of many of these techniques is necessary for a good grasp of the inner workings of the algorithms and getting good results. What Level of Maths Do You Need?

### Online Learning via Offline Greedy Algorithms: Applications in Market Design and Optimization

Motivated by online decision-making in time-varying combinatorial environments, we study the problem of transforming offline algorithms to their online counterparts. We focus on offline combinatorial problems that are amenable to a constant factor approximation using a greedy algorithm that is robust to local errors. For such problems, we provide a general framework that efficiently transforms offline robust greedy algorithms to online ones using Blackwell approachability. We show that the resulting online algorithms have $O(\sqrt{T})$ (approximate) regret under the full information setting. We further introduce a bandit extension of Blackwell approachability that we call Bandit Blackwell approachability. We leverage this notion to transform greedy robust offline algorithms into a $O(T^{2/3})$ (approximate) regret in the bandit setting. Demonstrating the flexibility of our framework, we apply our offline-to-online transformation to several problems at the intersection of revenue management, market design, and online optimization, including product ranking optimization in online platforms, reserve price optimization in auctions, and submodular maximization. We show that our transformation, when applied to these applications, leads to new regret bounds or improves the current known bounds.

We prove novel algorithmic guarantees for several online problems in the smoothed analysis model. In this model, at each time an adversary chooses an input distribution with density function bounded above by $\tfrac{1}{\sigma}$ times that of the uniform distribution; nature then samples an input from this distribution. Crucially, our results hold for {\em adaptive} adversaries that can choose an input distribution based on the decisions of the algorithm and the realizations of the inputs in the previous time steps. This paper presents a general technique for proving smoothed algorithmic guarantees against adaptive adversaries, in effect reducing the setting of adaptive adversaries to the simpler case of oblivious adversaries. We apply this technique to prove strong smoothed guarantees for three problems: -Online learning: We consider the online prediction problem, where instances are generated from an adaptive sequence of $\sigma$-smooth distributions and the hypothesis class has VC dimension $d$. We bound the regret by $\tilde{O}\big(\sqrt{T d\ln(1/\sigma)} + d\sqrt{\ln(T/\sigma)}\big)$. This answers open questions of [RST11,Hag18]. -Online discrepancy minimization: We consider the online Koml\'os problem, where the input is generated from an adaptive sequence of $\sigma$-smooth and isotropic distributions on the $\ell_2$ unit ball. We bound the $\ell_\infty$ norm of the discrepancy vector by $\tilde{O}\big(\ln^2\!\big( \frac{nT}{\sigma}\big) \big)$. -Dispersion in online optimization: We consider online optimization of piecewise Lipschitz functions where functions with $\ell$ discontinuities are chosen by a smoothed adaptive adversary and show that the resulting sequence is $\big( {\sigma}/{\sqrt{T\ell}}, \tilde O\big(\sqrt{T\ell} \big)\big)$-dispersed. This matches the parameters of [BDV18] for oblivious adversaries, up to log factors.