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FinCARE: Financial Causal Analysis with Reasoning and Evidence

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Portfolio managers rely on correlation-based analysis and heuristic methods that fail to capture true causal relationships driving performance. We present a hybrid framework that integrates statistical causal discovery algorithms with domain knowledge from two complementary sources: a financial knowledge graph extracted from SEC 10-K filings and large language model reasoning. Our approach systematically enhances three representative causal discovery paradigms, constraint-based (PC), score-based (GES), and continuous optimization (NOTEARS), by encoding knowledge graph constraints algorithmically and leveraging LLM conceptual reasoning for hypothesis generation. Evaluated on a synthetic financial dataset of 500 firms across 18 variables, our KG+LLM-enhanced methods demonstrate consistent improvements across all three algorithms: PC (F1: 0.622 vs. 0.459 baseline, +36%), GES (F1: 0.735 vs. 0.367, +100%), and NOTEARS (F1: 0.759 vs. 0.163, +366%). The framework enables reliable scenario analysis with mean absolute error of 0.003610 for counterfactual predictions and perfect directional accuracy for intervention effects. It also addresses critical limitations of existing methods by grounding statistical discoveries in financial domain expertise while maintaining empirical validation, providing portfolio managers with the causal foundation necessary for proactive risk management and strategic decision-making in dynamic market environments.


From Large to Small: Transferring CUDA Optimization Expertise via Reasoning Graph

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Despite significant evolution of CUDA programming and domain-specific libraries, effectively utilizing GPUs with massively parallel engines remains difficult. However, using LLMs in practice faces two major challenges: cloud-based APIs pose risks of code leakage, and local deployment is often computationally expensive and inefficient. These drawbacks have spurred interest in small language models (SLMs), which are more lightweight and privacy-friendly. Encouragingly, recent studies show that SLMs can achieve performance comparable to LLMs on specific tasks. While SLMs can match LLMs on domain-specific tasks, their limited reasoning abilities lead to suboptimal performance in complex CUDA generation according to our experiments. To bridge this gap, we propose ReGraphT, a training-free, retrieval-augmented generation framework that transfers LLM-level reasoning to smaller models. ReGraphT organizes CUDA optimization trajectories into a structured reasoning graph, modeling the combined CUDA optimizations as state transitions, and leverages Monte Carlo Graph Search (MCGS) for efficient exploration. We also present a CUDA-specific benchmark with difficulty tiers defined by reasoning complexity to evaluate models more comprehensively. Experiments show that ReGraphT outperforms HPC-specific fine-tuned models and other retrieval-augmented approaches, achieving an average 2.33 speedup on CUDAEval and ParEval. ReGraphT enables SLMs to approach LLM-level performance without the associated privacy risks or excessive computing overhead. The continuous performance improvement of NVIDIA GPUs (Dally et al., 2021; Lindholm et al., 2008; Nickolls & Dally, 2010; Owens et al., 2008) has solidified CUDA as a dominant programming model for high-performance computing tasks, including AI and scientific computing. However, writing efficient CUDA code that fully exploits the massively parallel processing capabilities of GPUs remains a significant challenge.


Can Reasoning Models Obfuscate Reasoning? Stress-Testing Chain-of-Thought Monitorability

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent findings suggest that misaligned models may exhibit deceptive behavior, raising concerns about output trustworthiness. Chain-of-thought (CoT) is a promising tool for alignment monitoring: when models articulate their reasoning faithfully, monitors can detect and mitigate harmful behaviors before undesirable outcomes occur. However, a key uncertainty is: Can models obfuscate their CoT in order to pursue hidden adversarial objectives while evading detection? To answer this question and thus stress-test CoT monitorability, we develop a composable and quantifiable taxonomy of prompts to elicit CoT obfuscation. We evaluate both internal CoT (reasoning traces) and external CoT (prompted reasoning in outputs) using toy tasks and more realistic environments in SHADE-Arena. We show that: (i) CoT monitoring performs accurately and efficiently without obfuscation pressure. (ii) Under strong obfuscation pressure, some models successfully complete adversarial tasks while evading detection. (iii) Models do not obfuscate their internal CoT as much as their external CoT (under prompt pressure). These results suggest that while CoT provides valuable oversight in benign settings, robust deployment requires model-specific stress-testing of monitorability.


Branch-and-Browse: Efficient and Controllable Web Exploration with Tree-Structured Reasoning and Action Memory

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Autonomous web agents powered by large language models (LLMs) show strong potential for performing goal-oriented tasks such as information retrieval, report generation, and online transactions. These agents mark a key step toward practical embodied reasoning in open web environments. However, existing approaches remain limited in reasoning depth and efficiency: vanilla linear methods fail at multi-step reasoning and lack effective backtracking, while other search strategies are coarse-grained and computationally costly. We introduce Branch-and-Browse, a fine-grained web agent framework that unifies structured reasoning-acting, contextual memory, and efficient execution. It (i) employs explicit subtask management with tree-structured exploration for controllable multi-branch reasoning, (ii) bootstraps exploration through efficient web state replay with background reasoning, and (iii) leverages a page action memory to share explored actions within and across sessions. On the WebArena benchmark, Branch-and-Browse achieves a task success rate of 35.8\% and reduces execution time by up to 40.4\% relative to state-of-the-art methods. These results demonstrate that Branch-and-Browse is a reliable and efficient framework for LLM-based web agents.


MoTVLA: A Vision-Language-Action Model with Unified Fast-Slow Reasoning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Integrating visual-language instructions into visuomotor policies is gaining momentum in robot learning for enhancing open-world generalization. Despite promising advances, existing approaches face two challenges: limited language steerability when no generated reasoning is used as a condition, or significant inference latency when reasoning is incorporated. In this work, we introduce MoTVLA, a mixture-of-transformers (MoT)-based vision-language-action (VLA) model that integrates fast-slow unified reasoning with behavior policy learning. MoTVLA preserves the general intelligence of pre-trained VLMs (serving as the generalist) for tasks such as perception, scene understanding, and semantic planning, while incorporating a domain expert, a second transformer that shares knowledge with the pretrained VLM, to generate domain-specific fast reasoning (e.g., robot motion decomposition), thereby improving policy execution efficiency. By conditioning the action expert on decomposed motion instructions, MoTVLA can learn diverse behaviors and substantially improve language steerability. Extensive evaluations across natural language processing benchmarks, robotic simulation environments, and real-world experiments confirm the superiority of MoTVLA in both fast-slow reasoning and manipulation task performance.


Efficient Vision-Language-Action Models for Embodied Manipulation: A Systematic Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models extend vision-language models to embodied control by mapping natural-language instructions and visual observations to robot actions. Despite their capabilities, VLA systems face significant challenges due to their massive computational and memory demands, which conflict with the constraints of edge platforms such as on-board mobile manipulators that require real-time performance. Addressing this tension has become a central focus of recent research. In light of the growing efforts toward more efficient and scalable VLA systems, this survey provides a systematic review of approaches for improving VLA efficiency, with an emphasis on reducing latency, memory footprint, and training and inference costs. We categorize existing solutions into four dimensions: model architecture, perception feature, action generation, and training/inference strategies, summarizing representative techniques within each category. Finally, we discuss future trends and open challenges, highlighting directions for advancing efficient embodied intelligence.


Semi-off-Policy Reinforcement Learning for Vision-Language Slow-Thinking Reasoning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Enhancing large vision-language models (LVLMs) with visual slow-thinking reasoning is crucial for solving complex multimodal tasks. However, since LVLMs are mainly trained with vision-language alignment, it is difficult to adopt on-policy reinforcement learning (RL) to develop the slow thinking ability because the rollout space is restricted by its initial abilities. Off-policy RL offers a way to go beyond the current policy, but directly distilling trajectories from external models may cause visual hallucinations due to mismatched visual perception abilities across models. To address these issues, this paper proposes SOPHIA, a simple and scalable Semi-Off-Policy RL for vision-language slow-tHInking reAsoning. SOPHIA builds a semi-off-policy behavior model by combining on-policy visual understanding from a trainable LVLM with off-policy slow-thinking reasoning from a language model, assigns outcome-based rewards to reasoning, and propagates visual rewards backward. Then LVLM learns slow-thinking reasoning ability from the obtained reasoning trajectories using propagated rewards via off-policy RL algorithms. Extensive experiments with InternVL2.5 and InternVL3.0 with 8B and 38B sizes show the effectiveness of SOPHIA. Notably, SOPHIA improves InternVL3.0-38B by 8.50% in average, reaching state-of-the-art performance among open-source LVLMs on multiple multimodal reasoning benchmarks, and even outperforms some closed-source models (e.g., GPT-4.1) on the challenging MathVision and OlympiadBench, achieving 49.08% and 49.95% pass@1 accuracy, respectively. Analysis shows SOPHIA outperforms supervised fine-tuning and direct on-policy RL methods, offering a better policy initialization for further on-policy training.


Towards foundational LiDAR world models with efficient latent flow matching

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

LiDAR-based world models offer more structured and geometry-aware representations than their image-based counterparts. However, existing LiDAR world models are narrowly trained; each model excels only in the domain for which it was built. Can we develop LiDAR world models that exhibit strong transferability across multiple domains? We conduct the first systematic domain transfer study across three demanding scenarios: (i) outdoor to indoor generalization, (ii) sparse-beam & dense-beam adaptation, and (iii) non-semantic to semantic transfer. Given different amounts of fine-tuning data, our experiments show that a single pre-trained model can achieve up to 11% absolute improvement (83% relative) over training from scratch and outperforms training from scratch in 30/36 of our comparisons. This transferability of dynamic learning significantly reduces the reliance on manually annotated data for semantic occupancy forecasting: our method exceed the previous semantic occupancy forecasting models with only 5% of the labeled training data required by prior models. We also observed inefficiencies of current LiDAR world models, mainly through their under-compression of LiDAR data and inefficient training objectives. To address this, we propose a latent conditional flow matching (CFM)-based frameworks that achieves state-of-the-art reconstruction accuracy using only half the training data and a compression ratio 6 times higher than that of prior methods. Our model achieves SOTA performance on future-trajectory-conditioned semantic occupancy forecasting while being 23x more computationally efficient (a 28x FPS speedup); and achieves SOTA performance on semantic occupancy forecasting while being 2x more computationally efficient (a 1.1x FPS speedup).


Chiron-o1: Igniting Multimodal Large Language Models towards Generalizable Medical Reasoning via Mentor-Intern Collaborative Search

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have begun to demonstrate robust reasoning capabilities on general tasks, yet their application in the medical domain remains in its early stages. Constructing chain-of-thought (CoT) training data is essential for bolstering the reasoning abilities of medical MLLMs. However, existing approaches exhibit a deficiency in offering a comprehensive framework for searching and evaluating effective reasoning paths towards critical diagnosis. To address this challenge, we propose Mentor-Intern Collaborative Search (MICS), a novel reasoning-path searching scheme to generate rigorous and effective medical CoT data. MICS first leverages mentor models to initialize the reasoning, one step at a time, then prompts each intern model to continue the thinking along those initiated paths, and finally selects the optimal reasoning path according to the overall reasoning performance of multiple intern models. The reasoning performance is determined by an MICS-Score, which assesses the quality of generated reasoning paths. Eventually, we construct MMRP, a multi-task medical reasoning dataset with ranked difficulty, and Chiron-o1, a new medical MLLM devised via a curriculum learning strategy, with robust visual question-answering and generalizable reasoning capabilities. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Chiron-o1, trained on our CoT dataset constructed using MICS, achieves state-of-the-art performance across a list of medical visual question answering and reasoning benchmarks. Codes are available at https://github.com/manglu097/Chiron-o1


Semantic World Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Planning with world models offers a powerful paradigm for robotic control. Conventional approaches train a model to predict future frames conditioned on current frames and actions, which can then be used for planning. However, the objective of predicting future pixels is often at odds with the actual planning objective; strong pixel reconstruction does not always correlate with good planning decisions. This paper posits that instead of reconstructing future frames as pixels, world models only need to predict task-relevant semantic information about the future. For such prediction the paper poses world modeling as a visual question answering problem about semantic information in future frames. This perspective allows world modeling to be approached with the same tools underlying vision language models. Thus vision language models can be trained as "semantic" world models through a supervised finetuning process on image-action-text data, enabling planning for decision-making while inheriting many of the generalization and robustness properties from the pretrained vision-language models. The paper demonstrates how such a semantic world model can be used for policy improvement on open-ended robotics tasks, leading to significant generalization improvements over typical paradigms of reconstruction-based action-conditional world modeling. Website available at https://weirdlabuw.github.io/swm.