We present a general architecture for the monitoring and diagnosis of large scale sensor-based systems with real time diagnostic constraints. This architecture is multileveled, combining a single monitoring level based on statistical methods with two model based diagnostic levels. At each level, sources of uncertainty are identified, and integrated methodologies for uncertainty management are developed. The general architecture was applied to the monitoring and diagnosis of a specific nuclear physics detector at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory that contained approximately 5000 components and produced over 500 channels of output data. The general architecture is scalable, and work is ongoing to apply it to detector systems one and two orders of magnitude more complex.

Deliberation plays an important role in the design of rational agents embedded in the real-world. In particular, deliberation leads to the formation of intentions, i.e., plans of action that the agent is committed to achieving. In this paper, we present a branching time possible-worlds model for representing and reasoning about, beliefs, goals, intentions, time, actions, probabilities, and payoffs. We compare this possible-worlds approach with the more traditional decision tree representation and provide a transformation from decision trees to possible worlds. Finally, we illustrate how an agent can perform deliberation using a decision-tree representation and then use a possible-worlds model to form and reason about his intentions.

This paper introduces conceptual relations that synthesize utilitarian and logical concepts, extending the logics of preference of Rescher. We define first, in the context of a possible worlds model, constraint-dependent measures that quantify the relative quality of alternative solutions of reasoning problems or the relative desirability of various policies in control, decision, and planning problems. We show that these measures may be interpreted as truth values in a multi valued logic and propose mechanisms for the representation of complex constraints as combinations of simpler restrictions. These extended logical operations permit also the combination and aggregation of goal-specific quality measures into global measures of utility. We identify also relations that represent differential preferences between alternative solutions and relate them to the previously defined desirability measures. Extending conventional modal logic formulations, we introduce structures for the representation of ignorance about the utility of alternative solutions. Finally, we examine relations between these concepts and similarity based semantic models of fuzzy logic.

This paper presents a plausible reasoning system to illustrate some broad issues in knowledge representation: dualities between different reasoning forms, the difficulty of unifying complementary reasoning styles, and the approximate nature of plausible reasoning. These issues have a common underlying theme: there should be an underlying belief calculus of which the many different reasoning forms are special cases, sometimes approximate. The system presented allows reasoning about defaults, likelihood, necessity and possibility in a manner similar to the earlier work of Adams. The system is based on the belief calculus of subjective Bayesian probability which itself is based on a few simple assumptions about how belief should be manipulated. Approximations, semantics, consistency and consequence results are presented for the system. While this puts these often discussed plausible reasoning forms on a probabilistic footing, useful application to practical problems remains an issue.

Experts do not always feel very, comfortable when they have to give precise numerical estimations of certainty degrees. In this paper we present a qualitative approach which allows for attaching partially ordered symbolic grades to logical formulas. Uncertain information is expressed by means of parameterized modal operators. We propose a semantics for this multimodal logic and give a sound and complete axiomatization. We study the links with related approaches and suggest how this framework might be used to manage both uncertain and incomplere knowledge.

The ideal Bayesian agent reasons from a global probability model, but real agents are restricted to simplified models which they know to be adequate only in restricted circumstances. Very little formal theory has been developed to help fallibly rational agents manage the process of constructing and revising small world models. The goal of this paper is to present a theoretical framework for analyzing model management approaches. For a probability forecasting problem, a search process over small world models is analyzed as an approximation to a larger-world model which the agent cannot explicitly enumerate or compute. Conditions are given under which the sequence of small-world models converges to the larger-world probabilities.

Possibilistic logic has been proposed as a numerical formalism for reasoning with uncertainty. There has been interest in developing qualitative accounts of possibility, as well as an explanation of the relationship between possibility and modal logics. We present two modal logics that can be used to represent and reason with qualitative statements of possibility and necessity. Within this modal framework, we are able to identify interesting relationships between possibilistic logic, beliefs and conditionals. In particular, the most natural conditional definable via possibilistic means for default reasoning is identical to Pearl's conditional for e-semantics.

This paper provides an overview of the SP theory of intelligence and its central idea that artificial intelligence, mainstream computing, and much of human perception and cognition, may be understood as information compression. The background and origins of the SP theory are described, and the main elements of the theory, including the key concept of multiple alignment, borrowed from bioinformatics but with important differences. Associated with the SP theory is the idea that redundancy in information may be understood as repetition of patterns, that compression of information may be achieved via the matching and unification (merging) of patterns, and that computing and information compression are both fundamentally probabilistic. It appears that the SP system is Turing-equivalent in the sense that anything that may be computed with a Turing machine may, in principle, also be computed with an SP machine. One of the main strengths of the SP theory and the multiple alignment concept is in modelling concepts and phenomena in artificial intelligence. Within that area, the SP theory provides a simple but versatile means of representing different kinds of knowledge, it can model both the parsing and production of natural language, with potential for the understanding and translation of natural languages, it has strengths in pattern recognition, with potential in computer vision, it can model several kinds of reasoning, and it has capabilities in planning, problem solving, and unsupervised learning. The paper includes two examples showing how alternative parsings of an ambiguous sentence may be modelled as multiple alignments, and another example showing how the concept of multiple alignment may be applied in medical diagnosis.

The best currently known interactive debugging systems rely upon some meta-information in terms of fault probabilities in order to improve their efficiency. However, misleading meta information might result in a dramatic decrease of the performance and its assessment is only possible a-posteriori. Consequently, as long as the actual fault is unknown, there is always some risk of suboptimal interactions. In this work we present a reinforcement learning strategy that continuously adapts its behavior depending on the performance achieved and minimizes the risk of using low-quality meta information. Therefore, this method is suitable for application scenarios where reliable prior fault estimates are difficult to obtain. Using diverse real-world knowledge bases, we show that the proposed interactive query strategy is scalable, features decent reaction time, and outperforms both entropy-based and no-risk strategies on average w.r.t. required amount of user interaction.

We investigate the value of extending the completeness of a decision model along different dimensions of refinement. Specifically, we analyze the expected value of quantitative, conceptual, and structural refinement of decision models. We illustrate the key dimensions of refinement with examples. The analyses of value of model refinement can be used to focus the attention of an analyst or an automated reasoning system on extensions of a decision model associated with the greatest expected value.